[Stratuscaster]

Will there be a domino effect? Yes.

[ChallengerSRT8]

My life will go on except I'll drive my Challenger SRT8 a lot less often. It won't happen for all the reasons you stated. A "quick" chapter 11 is the most Obama will let happen.

[buyacargetacheck]

Yes, as David Cole warned 2 million people including car washers and service station attendants would immediately lose their jobs. Dodge, Chrysler and Jeep dealers would immediately stop selling profitable service and used cars and shut down because they can't sell thin-margin new cars anymore. :rolleyes:

No doubt some suppliers and dealers will go out of business, but that's going to happen anyway no matter what. It's just a matter of pace.

[Leathal]

It was revealed today that one of the banks that received TARP money made a few billion and are still not lending money. Small business will also fail. It will take years to get back what we will loose. Just like the depression. The middle class will not be what we know it as. Very sad.

[stoich]

DBR96A, on Apr 16 2009, 01:36 PM, said:

From what I've heard, if Chrysler dies, then a bunch of parts suppliers will go bankrupt, which will freeze supplies to all other major automakers, forcing them to bleed even more cash, and putting them in danger of bankruptcy as well. Unemployment in the Midwest would skyrocket as a result, and the economy would take years to recover -- if ever at all. Maybe this is exaggerated somewhat, but I'm just curious what would happen to the economy once everybody gets what they wish for (read: the end of Chrysler).

First, I don't want Chrysler to go away. But, I do see a different spin on GM/Chrysler going away.

I'll use GM as an example:

If GM goes away, that would immediately open up 2+ million units of sales per year. Depending on who you believe, something like 40% of GM's sales are fleet/rental. That's 800k units a year that will likely go directly to Ford/Chrysler because fleets tend to buy American and love the discounts. That's 3 assembly plants worth of vehicles immediately.

The remaining 1.2million GM units gets split among the market... if Ford/Chrysler maintain their ~25% share, that's another 300k (1-2 more assembly plants). So Chrysler/Ford could actually keep 4-5 assembly plants up and running and maybe even hire a few GM workers to fill them.

It would certainly be hard on dealerships. But, it seems like if one goes down, it gives the other 2 a chance to survive. That's why Chrysler needs to make their deal happen. And quick.

[Stéphane Dumas]

I taught of the same thing stoich, Ford and Chrysler could grab some GM customers but also Toyota and Honda (and no one would had taught then Toyota goes after rental fleet markets as well a couple of years ago) and to a latter extent Hyundai.

A piece of trivia, I remember once, then Billy Durant the founder of GM once wanted to get Ford under his umbrella but things turned differently, wouldn't be ironic after all these years, to see Ford getting Chevy under its umbrella?

[nodrz]

stoich, on Apr 16 2009, 09:51 PM, said:

First, I don't want Chrysler to go away. But, I do see a different spin on GM/Chrysler going away.

I'll use GM as an example:

If GM goes away, that would immediately open up 2+ million units of sales per year. Depending on who you believe, something like 40% of GM's sales are fleet/rental. That's 800k units a year that will likely go directly to Ford/Chrysler because fleets tend to buy American and love the discounts. That's 3 assembly plants worth of vehicles immediately.

The remaining 1.2million GM units gets split among the market... if Ford/Chrysler maintain their ~25% share, that's another 300k (1-2 more assembly plants). So Chrysler/Ford could actually keep 4-5 assembly plants up and running and maybe even hire a few GM workers to fill them.

It would certainly be hard on dealerships. But, it seems like if one goes down, it gives the other 2 a chance to survive. That's why Chrysler needs to make their deal happen. And quick.

Actually thats why Chrysler has to go. It's market share will go to GM and Ford. After a Chapter 11 for GM they will be competitive again. The economy would be relitivly unaffected by closing Chrysler but a GM closure would be a major problem. The government plan looks like it's going that way.

ChallengerSRT8, on Apr 16 2009, 01:52 PM, said:

My life will go on except I'll drive my Challenger SRT8 a lot less often. It won't happen for all the reasons you stated. A "quick" chapter 11 is the most Obama will let happen.

And hope nothing breaks. Small volume cars like that will be a nightmare for parts. Aftermarket companies will make make parts for high volume products like trucks and minivans. Niche products will be SOL.

[Bearhawke]

Since the Detroit 3 are continuing to shed workers; each month that goes by, the impact of either Chrysler or GM dying will have less and less impact on the overall US economy outside of the communities directly affected by the remaining plants.

Translation: if one of the Detroit 3 collapsed a year ago.........the shock would be sudden and severe since they employed far more people.

[valiant67]

I think assuming that GM's market share would benefit from the elimination of Chrysler or that Ford and Chrysler's market shares would benefit from the elimination of GM is simply wishful thinking.

Studies over the years have show that a large percentage of the people who defect from one of the US automakers end up on a foreign automaker's car lot. There's probably also a large chunk of people would would take themsleves out of the new car market for a considerable time if their prefereed company goes away

[Citation84]

nodrz, on Apr 17 2009, 09:13 AM, said:

Actually thats why Chrysler has to go. It's market share will go to GM and Ford. After a Chapter 11 for GM they will be competitive again. The economy would be relitivly unaffected by closing Chrysler but a GM closure would be a major problem. The government plan looks like it's going that way.





And hope nothing breaks. Small volume cars like that will be a nightmare for parts. Aftermarket companies will make make parts for high volume products like trucks and minivans. Niche products will be SOL.

With all due respect, the Challenger shares so much with the 300 and Charger, major mechanical stuff should be available for a long time. Someone will step in to make those replacement parts. Don't doubt the ability of an enthusiast to find a niche and cater to it if something Challenger specific is needed.

Besides, currently I would think there are far more parts available than the cars themselves at this point. They've been produced to build the cars. If it grinds to a halt, the parts to make the cars would still be there. That shouldn't be a worry for a long time to come.

Just ask old Mopar owners. You can find parts for a 61 Desoto if you try. If there are C7 liquidation "remains" to be bought, those parts will still be out there. They won't make any money being hoarded or rusting away somewhere. People are still able to get parts for Borgwards and 65 Studebakers.

Challenger SRT8: enjoy your car. It's only new and original once. With Allpar and the Internet anything you break can be fixed or repaired. That's a lot of money to drop on a car to keep it as a lawn ornament.

This post has been edited by Citation84: 17 April 2009 - 05:02 PM