38 replies to this topic

[Mike V.]

Explanation of the cap... Hybrids and E85 can only effect the total CAFE by 1.2 mpg.

Looking at my example, adding 5% sales to the hybrid only added .6 to the CAFE.

However, adding 5% to the 30 mpg vehicles added 2.29 percent.

So since people are going to ask, lets take the original numbers from above but lets say we bumped those hybrids up to 75mpg from 47mpg because of the "bonus"

Average Fuel Economy is equal too

1 / (.3/20 + .4/30 + .25/15 + .05/75 = 1/.0456367= 21.9 CAFE

And still adding 5% of sales to the 30mpg groups still substantially beats the hybrids

Ford and Chrysler have lots of E85 vehicles to maximize that 1.2 mpg bonus they can receive while still added volume to the their vehicles that fall in the 30mpg example.

Does that make sense? Volume is key.

Mike

Edited by Mike V., October 8, 2012 at 03:42 pm.

[patfromigh]

My son works for a major car rental agency. He was shuttling cars around at the airport and one of the cars he driving was a Ford Focus. The car started to shake so much he thought he had a couple of flats from hitting some security spikes. The tires were fine, it was the Powershift transmission acting up.

[MoparNorm]

There is no doubt that while Ford is doing much better under Mullaly, they still have a long ways to go.
From the bottom of the stock market at 51 cents a share, to a high of $19, they have dropped back to $9 and appear stuck there.
Investor confidence in long term sustainability is weak and they have stalled in their progress to retire their debt.

[Mike V.]

There is no doubt that while Ford is doing much better under Mullaly, they still have a long ways to go.
From the bottom of the stock market at 51 cents a share, to a high of $19, they have dropped back to $9 and appear stuck there.
Investor confidence in long term sustainability is weak and they have stalled in their progress to retire their debt.

And the debt is what's scaring people... Not that I can blame them. Of course the future of a lot of things is someone dependent on this election in November.

Until then, many people and corporations don't har a clear path. Just a plan 1 and a plan 2.

Mike

My son works for a major car rental agency. He was shuttling cars around at the airport and one of the cars he driving was a Ford Focus. The car started to shake so much he thought he had a couple of flats from hitting some security spikes. The tires were fine, it was the Powershift transmission acting up.

Ford had had a lot of issues with their dual clutch and drivability. It appears rushed and maybe not ready for prime time here in the US. It has been in use in Europe for a number of years which makes the situation more surprising.

Mike

Edited by Mike V., October 9, 2012 at 11:18 am.

[GasAxe]

Mike V,
That was a very good summation of CAFE and the impact of different mpg technologies. Thank you

[Mike V.]

Mike V,
That was a very good summation of CAFE and the impact of different mpg technologies. Thank you

You are welcome and thank you! Glad it helped. It seems to be a bit of a mystery to some. I know it has been talked about a lot...

Mike

Edited by Mike V., October 10, 2012 at 02:54 pm.

[66coronet]

New aluminum F150, new fuel efficient large vans to compete with Mercedes Sprinter,  and a refresh transit connect.

 

3.2L power stroke 197hp 347lb-ft

 

Probably see it in the F150 once the Ram 1500 gets the 3.0Lcrd. 

Edited by 66coronet, December 14, 2012 at 05:33 pm.

[moparmodelfan]

I am not impressed. Sales under 1000 units isn't exactly setting the world on fire.


Mike

No the one setting the world on fire is the Escape. Oh wait a minute that should be itself. My bad!

[MoparNorm]

New aluminum F150, new fuel efficient large vans to compete with Mercedes Sprinter, and a refresh transit connect.

3.2L power stroke 197hp 347lb-ft
.

"Coming soon to a recycle center near you, the new F Series"

[66coronet]

No the one setting the world on fire is the Escape. Oh wait a minute that should be itself. My bad!

I suppose you can add the Boeing 787 battery fire to setting the world on fire. 

 

Ford MXT-R looks fun. The head lights remind me of the smart roadster. 

[TWX]

It's not built for four-wheeling, it's built for off road mining and construction sites. You are also seeing from an angle, the ground clearance is approx. 9", which normal for even stock Jeeps (the real ones, not the pap we have now)

If they offered a 4wd van here, that would be tempting.

 

I've always been curious about Dodge B-series 4x4 van conversions, but this might be more practical.

[MoparNorm]

If they offered a 4wd van here, that would be tempting.

 

I've always been curious about Dodge B-series 4x4 van conversions, but this might be more practical.

 

[dak4x4]

Ford C-Max Hybrid is Blue Oval's best-selling hybrid in first month of sales [w/video]

Why do all the hybirds have to look like eggs on wheels?

[66coronet]

Ford hiring 2,200 salaried US workers this year

 

 

it is all a part of Ford's contract commitment to the UAW union to bring 12,000 new jobs to the US by 2015.

 

 

...recruit new workers, including military veterans.

[66coronet]

Why do all the hybirds have to look like eggs on wheels?

Or should you say all small 4 door cars that have no space behind the back seat head rest are eggs? Except mini. 

Fiat 500E, volt, Hyundai Sonata Hybrid, Accord Hybrid, Honda civic hybrid, Acura ILX ect... isn't an egg. 

 

As for the Ford C Max, I like the grand C Max offered in Europe. Sliding back door. Motor trend.

I think the back seats should be optional. I'd rather see PT cruiser type shelves that can hold 200+ lbs for 3 levels of storage.

According to this web sight there is an option of 5 seat or 7 seat. Plus the 2.0L TDCI 163hp 199lb-ft 40+mpg.

Edited by 66coronet, January 11, 2013 at 12:52 pm.

[Joe_9131]

Norm, you are absolutley right... Alternative fuel vehicles like E85, hybrid, and plug-in hybrids do get a huge break on CAFE (which is why the 3.6 flex fuel engines across the line is incredibly important) but there is a cap. Only pure electrics are uncapped.

We can get into that math later, first lets explain how CAFE works in general and why volume is important. Note what I said about having flex fuel vehicles across the board. Because there are many many more of those being built than hybrids, they will affect the average substantially, this mill make sense later.

Furthermore, since CAFE is calculated on a harmonic mean, the amount of miles driven is the common factor and 47mpg isn't a huge factor when compared to the 22mpg the trucks get because of volume. So yes volume of vehicle can direct affect the reciprocal based averages and the fact that only 2% of the vehicles produced by Ford make the giant numbers makes the weight less.

The math is interesting and they use an average of the city and highway mileage, not just the biggest number which can really beat up on some vehicles that have big highway claims 

Example:
If I have a fleet of 100,000 vehicles and lets say 30% gets 20mpg and 40% gets 30mpg and 25% get 15mpg and 5% gets 47mpg. Then we assume the fleet will travel the same number of miles....

Total miles = 100,000

Total gallons = 30000/20 + 40000/30 + 25000/15 + 5000/47

Average Fuel Economy is equal too

1 / (.3/20 + .4/30 + .25/15 + .05/47) = 1/.04603 = 21.7 CAFE

If you took away the 5% of hybrids at 47 mpg and added them to the 30 mpg car sales the CAFE would increase to 23.99...

However if you took away the 5% from the 30 mpg group and added it to the 47 mpg hybrid cars making them 10% of sales the CAFE would only change to 22.00.

The change is higher if the hybrid sales went away altogether! This is just an example but it proves volume is important and even with the adders given to hybrids they still need volume to have a large effect on CAFE.

So that's the mystery of CAFE if anyone didnt know and why, in my opinion, Ford should be focusing on alternative fuels and diesel like Chrysler and not wasting money in the Hybrid game. So no, I don't believe Ford looks good for 2014 if they are still dabbling in electrics and hybrids.

Mike

 

Explanation of the cap... Hybrids and E85 can only effect the total CAFE by 1.2 mpg.

Looking at my example, adding 5% sales to the hybrid only added .6 to the CAFE.

However, adding 5% to the 30 mpg vehicles added 2.29 percent.

So since people are going to ask, lets take the original numbers from above but lets say we bumped those hybrids up to 75mpg from 47mpg because of the "bonus"

Average Fuel Economy is equal too

1 / (.3/20 + .4/30 + .25/15 + .05/75 = 1/.0456367= 21.9 CAFE

And still adding 5% of sales to the 30mpg groups still substantially beats the hybrids

Ford and Chrysler have lots of E85 vehicles to maximize that 1.2 mpg bonus they can receive while still added volume to the their vehicles that fall in the 30mpg example.

Does that make sense? Volume is key.

Mike

 

Your mathematics are flawed. 

 

See below. 

 

 

Black diamond on graph is the 21.7MPG  calculated with 5,000 hybrid vehicles.

The line represents CAFE 30MPG group changing from 30,000 to 60,000 but with the 15MPG and 20MPG groups are left at 25,000 and 30,000 respectively.

If the 5000 hybrids vehicles are added to 30MPG group the total would 45,000. As you can see from the graph the CAFE decreases and is closer to 21.5 (21.42 Actually). 

 

By using the numbers from your previous post. 23.99-21.7 = 2.29 MPG over estimated. 

 

The penalty cost would equate to  $125.95 per vehicle sold (Assuming that your estimate cost the company).

 Assuming that you sold 45,000 that year from the previous calculation then you would have cost the company 5.6 million dollars. 

[Mike V.]

Your mathematics are flawed.

See below.



Black diamond on graph is the 21.7MPG calculated with 5,000 hybrid vehicles.
The line represents CAFE 30MPG group changing from 30,000 to 60,000 but with the 15MPG and 20MPG groups are left at 25,000 and 30,000 respectively.
If the 5000 hybrids vehicles are added to 30MPG group the total would 45,000. As you can see from the graph the CAFE decreases and is closer to 21.5 (21.42 Actually).

By using the numbers from your previous post. 23.99-21.7 = 2.29 MPG over estimated.

The penalty cost would equate to $125.95 per vehicle sold (Assuming that your estimate cost the company).
Assuming that you sold 45,000 that year from the previous calculation then you would have cost the company 5.6 million dollars.

You show up three months later to correct me on your very first post? What took you so long?

You do realize that what I posted was purely and example to explain how CAFE works? Nothing more, nothing less.

Mike

Edited by Mike V., January 29, 2013 at 04:06 pm.

[Joe_9131]

You show up three months later to correct me on your very first post? What took you so long?

You do realize that what I posted was purely and example to explain how CAFE works? Nothing more, nothing less.

Mike

Your first statement is quite fallacious. 

 

You explained how CAFE works in a false way because your math is incorrect. 

We can look at the data to see that your math is incorrect. (only 5,000 hybrids the CAFE is 21.72. adding 5,000 to 30MPG group, the CAFE is 21.42) 

You calculated a CAFE of 23.99 with in the 30MPG group, when it should have been 21.42 MPG. 

Since your math is incorrect you're falsely leading people to believe that selling in volume will make the CAFE jump up significantly.

 

In the sense of CAFE, I would much rather have 5% of my sales be from 47 MPG vehicles than an addition %5 from 30 MPG vehicles.

 

Joe 

[Mike V.]

Your first statement is quite fallacious.

You explained how CAFE works in a false way because your math is incorrect.
We can look at the data to see that your math is incorrect. (only 5,000 hybrids the CAFE is 21.72. adding 5,000 to 30MPG group, the CAFE is 21.42)
You calculated a CAFE of 23.99 with in the 30MPG group, when it should have been 21.42 MPG.
Since your math is incorrect you're falsely leading people to believe that selling in volume will make the CAFE jump up significantly.

In the sense of CAFE, I would much rather have 5% of my sales be from 47 MPG vehicles than an addition %5 from 30 MPG vehicles.

Joe

The real gist was to explain how it worked. The math means nothing at this point. CAFE in general is unknown by many. So if I have a math error, oops, I did the whole post sitting as a passenger in a car on my iPhone. I never claimed it was a textbook calculation.

People learned the general idea of how CAFE is calculated and that is all that really matters.

Mike