Analyst predicts 34 percent slump in Chrysler August sales

Posted on August 30th, 2008 • by Bill Cawthon

Chrysler August light vehicle sales will be down 34% from the same month last year, but 13.5% better than July’s meager results, according to Jesse Toprak, Executive Director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com, who sees a total of 111,000 sales and a market share of 8.8% for the Auburn Hills automaker.

“The full impact of Chrysler’s decision to stop leasing has yet to be seen. It can be expected to affect Chrysler’s introduction of the new Dodge Ram, a vehicle that has historically had a high percentage of leases,” wrote Michelle Krebs, Senior Editor of Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com.

While Chrysler is predicted to take the biggest hit of the major manufacturers, General Motors isn’t far behind. Toprak looks for GM sales to be down 27.5% on 280,000 sales and says, “This month, General Motors sales would have been down at least 30% if they hadn’t launched their Employee Discount for Everyone promotion, but overall the program has not been nearly as effective as its first implementation back in 2005.”

Toprak sees Ford moving 178,000 units through the end of the month, a decline of 16.3% compared to August 2007 but a 12.9 improvement over July 2008.

Industry-wide sales are predicted to come in at about 1.26 million units, a 14.4% drop compared to August 2007 but an 11.4% jump up from July. August 2008 had 27 selling days, the same as August 2007, so there won’t be any daily sales rate adjustments. The U.S. automakers are seen claiming 45.1% of the total, up from July 2008’s 43.2%, but well off the 52.1% they held last August.

Edmunds’ crystal ball shows another sales decline at Toyota. The top import company will report 217,000 units in August, off 7.2% from August 2007 but up 9.7% from July 2008 and more than enough to keep it in the No. 2 spot.

Honda sales are predicted to be up 0.9% from last year. The forecast 160,000 units could be enough to bump Chrysler out of fourth place in year-to-date sales.

Toprak predicted Nissan would the big winner among the top six automakers. He sees Nissan selling 98,000 units this month, a 2.3% improvement over August 2007 and a 2.5% better than July 2008.