Auto industry seen as most distressed in 2009

The automobile industry, hammered by slow sales and tight credit, will pass homebuilding as the most distressed industry in the United States next year. The still-suffering housing industry, the winner for 2008, is seen as falling to third, after autos and the retail sector, according to an early December survey of the213-member Turnaround Management Association.

Chrysler, which will be receiving a cash infusion from the federal government, is the most pessimistic of the Detroit automakers, predicting just 11.1 million total U.S. light vehicle sales next year. That’s more than two million cars and light trucks fewer than the estimated 13.5 million vehicles that will have been sold when December numbers are reported next week and about five million sales shy of the number recorded for 2007. 

Chrysler, as it was in 2008, may be closer to the actual results that its competitors. The Consumer Confidence Index hit a record low of 38 in December with only 4.7 percent of those polled saying they planned to buy a car in the next six months.