Chrysler January sales may drop 48 percent

January sales won’t be reported until next Tuesday, but Jesse Toprak, Executive Director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com, has already made his predictions.

Toprak sees a Chrysler sales volume of 71,000 units, down 48 percent for the month as the industry repeats its dismal December performance. A good start to the month, which had encouraged some in the industry, sputtered out in the second half even as Chrysler introduced new incentives.

Contrary to recent predictions from Chrysler executives, Toprak thinks Chrysler’s market share will be down compared both to January 2008 and December 2008 and that Honda will take over fourth place among the Big Six automakers.

“Our research indicates that retail sales are pretty much flat compared with December,” said Toprak. “However, automakers’ decision to cut fleet sales and make other production cuts will cause a large sales decline to be recorded on the books.”

Reduced fleet sales are not strictly under the automakers’ control. With travel business declining and resale values plummeting, rental companies have cut back vehicle purchases 20 percent.

Toprak predicts the other five major automakers will report shortfalls. He sees GM sales down 38 percent and Ford’s off 29.8 percent. Honda will finish 22.9 percent short of its January 2008 numbers, best of the Big Six, while Toyota falls 24.5 percent. Toprak foresees Nissan taking a 28.1 percent tumble.

Industry-wide, Toprak sees sales of just 730,000 cars and light trucks for the month, the lowest total volume in decades.

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