Chrysler breaks 100K mark in March

March wasn’t a great month, by any means, but it was a little better than expected. Total volume of 857,735 cars and light trucks marks a 36.8 percent drop from March 2008, but the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 9.86 million sales is well above the predicted rate of 8.8 million and is the first time the SAAR has risen from the previous month since last December. By comparison, the SAAR last March was 15.1 million sales.

It’s still a tough market; automakers sold 499,191 fewer light vehicles last month than they did in March 2008 and the year-to-date (YTD) shortfall is already a whopping 1.373,879 units, which equals a 38.4 percent decline.

Hardest-hit have been the Detroit automakers. For the first three months of this year, their domestic brands are a total of 828,001 sales behind the first quarter of 2008; a 46.2 percent plunge. Sales of Dodges, Fords, Chevrolets and the rest now claim just 43.8 percent of light vehicle sales whereas last year at this time, they still claimed a small majority with 50.1 percent of the market.

General Motors has taken the biggest blows. Last month, in spite record incentives, GM sales fell 44.7 percent, the largest deficit reported by any major automaker. GM has now fallen behind Chrysler in YTD performance, too, with a 48.8 percent shortfall since January. Anyone who doubts the rumors of bankruptcy can gut sales need only look at the results for Hummer, Saab and Saturn. GM hasn’t even officially cut them loose yet, but sales have dropped by nearly two-thirds at each brand. In fact, the combined sales of the three brands are just over half the volume Saturn alone recorded last March.

Ford fared a bit better, down 40.8 percent from last year, but once-popular models like the Edge and Mustang are way off their pace from a year ago. The Flex continues to underperform and sales of the Expedition and Explorer are almost literally vanishing. Sales of the Explorer, once the unrivaled king of the hill in the SUV segment are now around 10 percent of what they were back in the good ol’ days. The Fusion continues to perform well; its sales are down just 19.9 percent. Ford came within 1,700 sales of regaining second place for the month, but Toyota’s sales slipped just a little bit less than Ford’s.

Chrysler, with sales breaking the 100,000 mark for the first time in six months, had no trouble maintaining fourth place, coming in 12,622 sales ahead of Honda. The company now has three entries in Ward’s Top Ten Trucks in YTD sales: The Dodge Ram pickup, the Jeep Wrangler and the Dodge Caravan, which is once again the best-selling minivan.

The Wrangler continues to impress: sales were actually up 16.4 percent for the month and are now 16.7 percent ahead in YTD sales. Other than new models, like the Chevrolet Traverse and Ford Flex, and the Dodge Journey, which was still ramping up last March, the Wrangler is the only light truck from any American manufacturer that is in the black. It’s also the best-selling traditional SUV.

Even with the most expensive incentives in the business, Chrysler still has trouble selling cars. Passenger car sales were down 51 percent in March and are now 60 percent behind the first three months of 2008. Sales of the once-hot Caliber are now down 73.7 percent for the first quarter of this year. Worst showing is the Chrysler Sebring, with YTD sales down 81.5 percent. The Dodge Charger remains Chrysler’s top car.

The Dodge Journey had a good month, outselling every GM crossover or SUV except the Traverse.

Toyota March sales were down 39.0 percent, nearly as much as Chrysler’s. Worse, Lexus stumbled badly, falling behind both BMW and Mercedes-Benz, as Lexus car sales dropped 51.5 percent. Lexus has now fallen to second place in YTD sales in the premium segment.

Nissan and Honda weren’t far behind, with sales down 37.7 percent and 36.3 percent, respectively. Honda’s new Prius-fighting Insight went on the market last month, ringing up 569 sales in an apathetic hybrid market. Nissan’s Versa is one of the few small cars doing well in these days of low gas prices as it outsells the Honda Fit, Toyota Yaris and the entire Scion line.

I’m not sure whether they are the big winners or just the smallest losers, but both Korean carmakers did relatively well in March. Hyundai sales were off 4.8 percent while Kia just missed breaking even by 147 sales or 0.6 percent. Subaru joined this circle, as well, with just a 2.6 percent shortfall, thanks to the Forester driving a 30.1 percent increase in its light truck sales.

Compared to the leading Detroit and Japanese automakers, the Germans are coming through the slump reasonably well, even though they are also taking a hit. BMW sales were down 22.9 percent and even the Mini lost ground with sales down 15.9 percent. Mercedes-Benz came up 25.0 percent short of its March 2008 numbers and the Smart just barely beat its mark, coming in 22 sales ahead of last year. Volkswagen sales were down 19.7 percent as strong sales of the new premium CC and improved results from the Chrysler-built Routan helped compensate for a dwindling supply of the current-generation Rabbit that will be replaced by the new Golf VI later this year. VW’s upscale sibling, Audi, saw its sales fall 19.4 percent.

A number of industry insiders are wondering if March is the sign the light vehicle market has finally bottomed out. Jesse Toprak of Edmunds.com says the month made him more confident of a 10 million sales year in 2009. The deals and incentives are out there and credit is becoming more readily available, though it probably won’t be as loose as it was in recent years for some time, if ever. On the other hand, the layoffs continue, companies and consumers are still reluctant to commit to large purchases and consumer sentiment is still in the dumps. So much is riding on the next few months to see if the new Administration will be able to light a fire under the economy and get the money moving again.

Things should be interesting (agonizing?) for Chrysler fans over the next 30 days. By this time next month, Chrysler could either be wedded to Fiat or beginning the process of shutting down, ending more than eight decades of automotive history. Let’s hope for the best.