Edmunds predicts June SAAR over 10 million

Jesse Toprak, Edmunds.com’s executive director for industry analysis, says U.S. light vehicles will have a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of over 10 million units. If Toprak’s crystal ball is accurate, it would be the first time since December 2008 the SAAR has hit that mark.

Toprak sees Chrysler selling 83,000 cars and trucks, down 29.1 percent from June 2008, but better than its May results. Based on his estimates, Chrysler’s market share would be 9.4 percent, well ahead of last month’s 8.5 percent. One thing that may work in Chrysler’s favor is a renewed interest in minivans. Toprak is looking for a 12 percent month-over-month increase in minivan sales, saying, “With generous incentives drawing attention to this segment, many families are rediscovering minivans as the most practical and least costly way to transport people and things.”

Predictions for other automakers include a 15.6 percent drop for Ford which is in line with Ford’s own estimate of a shortfall between 10 and 20 percent. If it can hit the Edmunds prediction of 147,000 sales, it would be Ford’s best month since July 2008. Ford sales have dropped at least 20 percent every month since then. Ford would remain in second place behind General Motors, outselling Toyota for another month.

Toprak predicts GM will retain the top spot with 187,000 sales, a 28.9 percent plunge only two-tenths of a percent ahead of Chrysler. As with Chrysler, Toprak expects a slight improvement in GM’s market share compared to May 2009.

Toyota will continue to report disappointing numbers, down 28.7 percent on sales of 138,000 Toyota, Lexus and Scion vehicles.

Once again, there is a prediction that Hyundai will pass Nissan for sixth place. Toprak looks for Hyundai to sell 67,000 units, a 14.7 percent deficit compared to June 2008. He is looking for Nissan to come in with just 57,000 sales, a 24.2 percent shortfall.

Honda will report sales of 99,000 units, according to Toprak, leaving it 31.4 percent behind last year but that would still be good enough to keep it in fourth place among the top six automakers.