November numbers eke out tiny gain over 2008

Posted on December 2nd, 2009 • by Bill Cawthon

Last month’s light vehicle sales were virtually a photo finish compared to November 2008. With a total of 746,928 cars and trucks, there was a difference of just 139 units, a 0.02% improvement. Applying a correction for daily selling rate (DSR), each of this November’s 23 days looks 8.7% better than last November’s 25 days. This yields a seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate (SAAR) of 10.93 million light vehicles, a 520,000-sale improvement compared to the 10.41 million figure from 2008.

It now looks fairly certain the industry will reach 10 million sales this year. Applying a slight correction to last December’s sales numbers, an estimate of this year’s total works out to about 10.4 million light vehicle sales, the fewest since 1970. Without something to spur truly robust sales, like the Cash for Clunkers program, it seems unlikely we will reach the 10.5 million figure achieved in 1982.

Chrysler’s share of November’s pumpkin pie was 8.51 percent, down 2.9 points from November 2008′s 11.42 percent. Sales volume was down 25.5% though adjusting for DSR leaves a slightly more palatable drop of 19 percent. Whichever figure you prefer, it was the worst among the major automakers. Years of neglect by Daimler followed by nearly two years of utter ineptitude on the part of Cerberus Capital Management have left Chrysler without the fresh products it desperately needs to compete. Compounding the problem is that the public perception of Chrysler is hurting sales of truly good products like the Dodge (whoops) Ram 1500, one of the most highly praised vehicles Chrysler has fielded in recent years. November sales of the Ram pickup dropped below 10,000 units, a 32% fall from last year and the largest percentage deficit recorded by any of the major full-size pickups. The Ram 1500 did manage to outsell the GMC Sierra by 1,416 units and hold onto a position in the Top Ten in year-to-date (YTD) sales. With the plunge in Ram 1500 sales, the wind-down of the Sprinter line and the negligible contribution of the Dakota, which isn’t averaging a thousand units a month, Chrysler’s newest brand posted Chrysler’s worst performance with a 38.5% deficit compared to November 2008.

The Chrysler brand was next on the naughty list with a 37.3% shortfall. A 5% improvement in sales of the Sebring and nearly flat sales of the Town & Country couldn’t counterbalance the various albatrosses hanging on Chrysler’s flagship marque. PT Cruiser sales were down 91.4% last month and 300 sales continue to languish as the once-hot styling grows older.

Slumping sales of the Belvidere trio continue to hurt Jeep and Dodge. The Compass, Patriot and Caliber posted the largest deficits of any Jeep or Dodge model. YTD sales of the three total 70,308 units, nearly 11,000 fewer sales than the Caliber alone had posted this time last year.

A 41% drop in sales of the Grand Cherokee was another hurter for Jeep which ended the month with a shortfall of 24.4 percent. Commander sales were within eight units of last year’s showing and Liberty sales were down just about 16 percent.

A 35% improvement in Caravan sales gave the Dodge minivan the segment crown for the month, but it’s still most likely the Honda Odyssey will be the winner for the year. Dodge had other winners, as well. Avenger sales shot up 51.2 percent while while Journey sales skyrocketed 93 percent. This was enough to take some of the edge off slumping sales of the Charger, Challenger and Nitro, all or which missed their 2008 marks by 35% or more. When the counting was done, Dodge was just 8% shy of its 2008 results.

General Motors was reporting a 2.2% loss while its board was forcing out its CEO. To make the numbers prettier, the General is now emphasizing the performance of its Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC lines by splitting them away from the four GM brands scheduled to walk the Green Mile. In November, the four “core brands” saw a sales improvement of 5.6% led by Buick’s 14.8% gain. Sales of the nearly departed were down 47.9 percent with Pontiac, the one brand with no hope of reprieve, doing the best, down 38.8 percent.

Ford sold 123 more light vehicles last month than it did in November 2008, good for an 0.01% improvement. Volvo was the critical factor, adding 227 sales and a 5.2% gain to put FoMoCo in the black. Ford brand sales were up 2.0% and it looks like Ford will pass Chevrolet in popularity for the year. However, it’s a pretty safe bet now that, come December 31, America’s favorite brand will be Toyota.

The Ford F-Series chalked up another month as America’s best-selling vehicle and, unless the folks in Dearborn actually run out of trucks this week, it’s headed to another year as the top pickup brand. The Fusion is the top-selling American-badged car so far this year, but the margin is still close enough that a flurry of fleet orders could tip the balance to the Chevy Impala.

Toyota came in with a 2.6% increase for last month. A 3.0% improvement in Toyota-brand sales and a 14.0% jump in Lexus sales were hurt by a 41.6% decline in sales of the Scion brand. Lexus looks to be the top premium brand for the year; it beat BMW and Mercedes-Benz in November and has a solid lead going into December.

Honda finished the month 2.9% short of its goal. An 11.2% improvement in Acura sales wasn’t enough to overcome the 4.6% deficit brought in by Honda. Ironically, Honda took it on the chin in the small car department: Fit sales were down 27.3% and Civic sales slumped 22.8% as rising gas prices don’t seem to have inspired any interest in the mini-cars.

Nissan reported the largest improvement of the Big Six. Sales were up 20.8% as a 29.9% jump in Nissan sales fueled by solid gains in every car line and most light truck easily compensated for a 26.0% dip in sales of the upscale Infiniti line. The little Cube is still selling briskly, considering sales of rival vehicles like the Scion line, and Versa sales were up 22.5 percent in November.

Bucking the industry trend, Subaru believes it is on its way to a record year, having notched yet another record sale month. Subie sales were up nearly 24% last month and YTD sales are up 13.6 percent, the best results in the industry.

Mazda was another with a photo-finish month, coming in 121 sales ahead of November 2008 for a 0.9% gain. Mitsubishi reported another double-digit drop; sales were down 42.6 percent. Suzuki dealers sold three cars last month as the smallest of the Japanese manufacturers with a U.S. presence clears out old Daewoos and such. Light SUV sales also took a hit, leaving Suzuki in the hole by 52.11 percent.

Both Korean automakers brought good news to the table: Hyundai sales grew 45.91% with a 61% jump in car sales and Kia reported a 18.3% improvement over last November.

Volkswagen sales climbed 8.7% last month, driven by strong diesel sales and the popular new CC. VW’s YTD sales are now just 6.1% behind last year’s pace, one of the smallest deficits in the industry. Audi was another close finish, coming in 22 sales ahead of November 2008 for a 0.32% gain. BMW brand sales improved by 3.23 percent and Mercedes-Benz was in the black by 19.3 percent. However, both of their small car lines took big hits: Mini sales nose-dived 43.6% and Smart sales took an even steeper dive, falling 65.6% short of last year’s mark. Porsche car sales climbed 46.6%, overcoming a shortfall in Cayenne sales and giving Volkswagen’s newest subsidiary an 18% improvement.

November showed that the light vehicle market is improving but it also shows the pace is slow. The fundamentals still aren’t there; Main Street is still not enjoying the gains of Wall Street and the market isn’t trickling down. While the pace of job cuts does seem to be slackening, it’s still too high, and incomes are still stressed. Until this changes, the light vehicle market is going to be tough. And it will be especially tough on companies that don’t have fresh and compelling product. And this increasingly means passenger cars. The majority of light vehicle sales, both for November and the first eleven months of 2008, have been cars.

Next year should see an interesting competition in the U.S. market: who will be No. 1? GM’s core brands still have a lead over Toyota and Ford but if Ford can maintain its hot streak or enough former Hummer, Pontiac, Saturn and Saab customers leave the GM camp, the General might be toppled from his perch of nearly a century atop the U.S. market.

Top 20 through November 30, 2009

1. Ford F Series – 365,416
2. Toyota Camry – 321,878
3. Chevrolet Silverado – 283,243
4. Toyota Corolla/Matrix – 262,654
5. Honda Accord – 261,333
6. Honda Civic – 237,403
7. Nissan Altima – 184,925
8. Honda CR-V – 172,528
9. Ram Pickup – 165,254
10. Ford Fusion – 161,819
11. Ford Escape – 153,888
12. Chevrolet Impala – 151,952
13. Ford Focus – 146,228
14. Chevrolet Malibu – 142,194
15. Toyota RAV4 – 132,346
16. Toyota Prius – 127,907
17. Toyota Tacoma – 102,327
18. GMC Sierra – 99,698
19. Honda Odyssey – 91,167
20. Chevrolet Traverse – 82,210