Analysts forecast big November for Chrysler
The numbers aren’t due out until later this morning, but analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News look for a big jump in Chrysler Group sales. Predictions range from Brian Johnson’s 17.0 percent to 43.0 percent forecast by three analysts, including Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com, who was almost exactly correct in her Chrysler sales growth and volume predictions in October. None of the analysts think Ford or General Motors will outpace Chrysler in growth.
Jessica Caldwell sees Chrysler ending the month with 106,097 sales while Jesse Toprak of TrueCar.com thinks the volume will come in at 102,639.
Surprisingly good sales over the long Thanksgiving weekend have industry watchers anticipating what could be the highest seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) since the “Cash for Clunkers” program in August 2009. With predictions ranging up to 13.6 million, the average is 13.4 million, which would be the highest November rate since 2007. Overall sales volume is predicted to be just shy of a million units
Going into the final month of 2011, Chrysler looks to end the year in fourth place, behind Toyota but well ahead of Honda.
Given a similar bump in December numbers, the industry should finish the year with about 12.8 million light vehicles sales.
| NOVEMBER 2011 LIGHT VEHICLE SALES FORECASTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst | Company | GM | Ford | Chrysler | SAAR* |
| Patrick Archambault | Goldman Sachs | 5.1% | 11.0% | 43.0% | 13.4 |
| Jessica Caldwell | Edmunds.com | 9.9% | 12.0% | 43.0% | 13.6 |
| Chris Ceraso | Credit Suisse | 6.3% | 9.2% | 38.0% | 13.4 |
| Brian Johnson | Barclays | 9.2% | 10.0% | 17.0% | 13.5 |
| Rod Lache | Deutsche Bank | 6.5% | 6.1% | 31.0% | 13.4 |
| Peter Nesvold | Jefferies | 7.9% | 9.6% | 43.0% | 13.4 |
| Jesse Toprak | TrueCar.com | 6.3% | 10.0% | 38.0% | 13.3 |
| Seth Weber | RBC | 7.6% | 13.0% | 40.0% | 13.3 |
| Alan Baum | Baum & Associates | NA | NA | NA | 13.6 |
| Adam Jonas | Morgan Stanley | NA | NA | NA | 13.5 |
| George Magliano | IHS Automotive | NA | NA | NA | 13.3 |
| Itay Michaeli | Citigroup | NA | NA | NA | 13.5 |
| Himanshu Patel | JPMorgan | NA | NA | NA | 13.4 |
| Jeff Schuster | LMC Automotive | NA | NA | NA | 13.4 |
| Average | 7.4% | 10.0% | 37.0% | 13.4 | |
| *Seasonally adjusted annualized rate in millions of light vehicles sales | |||||
