October sales better than September

October 2009 was almost a photo finish compared to October 2008; just 104 sales separate the two with last October having the edge. In percentage terms, it works out to a .0124% deficit. If you want to play the Daily Sales Rate game, last month had one more selling day than October 2008, so the shortfall comes in at 3.58 percent.

Automakers sold or leased 838,052 cars and light trucks last month. The seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate (SAAR) came in at 10.46 million units, down 360,000 sales from last October’s SAAR, but 1.24 million ahead of September 2009 and the third-best reading so far this year and the best result for a month where sales weren’t fueled by government rebates.

Let’s hope the big plan Sergio Marchionne is revealing later today is a humdinger; Chrysler had another bad month though it was better than September and better than the prediction from Edmunds.com. The damage done by Daimler and compounded by the shortsighted moneywonks of Cerberus is really starting to show. Sales were down 30.4% for the month and are now 38.9 percent behind the first ten months of 2008. Chrysler’s market share in October was 7.85 percent, a drop of 3.43 percentage points from last October. In a market where the majority of the big pickups reported improved sales, sales of the Ram were down 30.4 percent and it dropped a spot, to number 9, in the Top 20. Sales of the Belvidere trio were down an average of 71.1% and volume was less than a quarter what it was last year. Last October, the Caliber and Patriot each beat the combined sales of the Compass, Patriot and Caliber this year.

Sales of the Caravan were up as it took the top spot in the minivan market for the month. The Town & Country came in third, behind the Toyota Sienna, which is now 858 sales behind the T&C for the year. The Honda Odyssey, which still has a firm grasp at the top of the minivan market in terms of year-to-date (YTD) sales, came in fourth in October.

General Motors posted its first month-over-month improvement in 21 months, up 4.7% on an 18.3% jump in sales of its light trucks. Not only were sales of newer models, like the Traverse, strong; sales of GM’s big trucks, like the Silverado and Sierra pickups, the Tahoe and Suburban and their GMC and Cadillac clones were also up sharply. It was more than enough to counter a 13% drop in passenger car sales. All four of GM’s “core” brands posted improved sales in October as the General picked almost an entire point of market share.

The new Camaro is really taking off, outselling the Mustang and Challenger for the month and it could be a close race to see whether the Mustang or Camaro will be the year’s best-selling pony car.

Ford also showed improvement, up 3.28% and picking up just over a half-point of market share. Car sales were up 9.9 % while truck sales beat October 2008 by 52 units for a .06% gain. Sales of Ford’s crossovers were up nicely, thought the Dodge Journey is still outselling the Flex. The F-Series pickup took an 8.8% hit in October but it still has a lock on its long-running title as best-selling vehicle in America. Volvo sales were up 19.37 percent; maybe Mr. Mulalley should rethink that deal with Geely.

Toyota and Honda had interesting months. Toyota beat its October 2008 sales by 64 units, a gain of .04 percent thanks to a 15.5% jump in Lexus sales. Honda missed hitting its year-ago totals by 362 sales, a drop of 0.4 percent. In Honda’s case, its premium brand hurt its final results. Honda sales were within five vehicles of matching October 2008 but Acura missed its mark by 357 sales.

Nissan beat its October 2008 numbers by 5.6 percent. Nissan itself was up 7.7% but a 9.3% slump in Infiniti sales trimmed the gain.

Once again, Subaru had big news, setting a new October sales record on a 44.7% leap in sales fueled by triple-digit improvements in sales of the Legacy and Outback.

The other Japanese automakers all missed their marks. Mazda came up 8.4% short, while Mitsubishi and Suzuki fought it out to see who could do worse. Suzuki won, with a 49.9% plunge, just ahead of Mitsubishi’s 48.3% fall.

The Koreans had a good month: Hyundai sales were up 48.9% and Kia wasn’t far behind with a 45.3% jump.

Mercedes-Benz was the top-selling German brand in October with a 21.3% increase, followed by Volkswagen which added 7.23% to its October 2008 total and remains the best-selling European car in the U.S. BMW, which is losing ground on Lexus in the YTD race, came in third with an 18.6% deficit.

At the end of October, the industry was 25.4% short of matching the first ten months of 2008. Just three automakers, Subaru, Hyundai and Kia, are in the black. Nonetheless, fears of a sub-10 million-unit year appear unfounded and it looks like the industry should finish the year with somewhere around 10.4 million sales.

Top 20 in Year-To-Date Sales
1. Ford F-Series, 334,922
2, Toyota Camry, 294,493
3. Chevrolet Silverado, 261,142
4. Honda Accord, 244,579
5. Toyota Corolla/Matrix, 240,755
6. Honda Civic, 223,751
7. Nissan Altima, 169,435
8. Honda CR-V, 158,573
9. Dodge Ram Pickup, 155,467
10. Ford Fusion, 148,045
11. Chevrolet Impala, 139,577
12. Ford Escape, 138,739
13. Ford Focus, 136,032
14. Chevrolet Malibu, 131,081
15. Toyota RAV4, 120,834
16. Toyota Prius, 118,290
17. Toyota Tacoma, 94,694
18. GMC Sierra , 91,327
19. Honda Odyssey, 84,761
20. Chevrolet Traverse, 75,156

Chrysler sales drop 30 percent but improve over September

Chrysler Group LLC today reported a 6 percent increase in total U.S. sales compared with September 2009. Chrysler and Dodge brands reported month-over-month increases.

Chrysler Group reported total U.S. sales for October of 65,803 units, an increase of 6 percent compared with September and a decrease of 30 percent compared with the same time period in 2008. The company finished the month with 159,428 units in inventory, representing a 68-day supply. Inventory is down 60 percent versus October 2008 when it totaled 395,996 units. Overall industry figures for October are projected to come in at an estimated 10.4 million SAAR.

“The industry showed signs of improvement this month with increasing sales, which is a trend we expect to continue for the remainder of the year,” said Fred Diaz, President and Chief Executive Officer-Ram Brand and Lead Executive for the Sales Organization, Chrysler Group LLC. “Chrysler Group expects to get its fair share of the increases as November and December traditionally are two of the best months for SUV sales, and the Jeep® brand offers customers the best SUVs in the marketplace.”

October Brand U.S. Sales Highlights
– Dodge Car Brand sales (26,265 units) increased 24 percent compared with September 2009
– Six out of nine Dodge Car Brand vehicles posted sales increases compared with the previous month: Dodge Avenger, up 48 percent;
Dodge Challenger, up 35 percent; Dodge Viper, up 47 percent; Dodge Journey, up 23 percent, Dodge Nitro up 26 percent and Dodge Grand Caravan, up 119 percent
– Dodge Avenger and Dodge Grand Caravan post year-over-year sales increases of 13 percent and 8 percent respectively
– Chrysler Brand vehicles post a 42 percent increase (12,815 units) compared with September 2009
– Chrysler Sebring sales (2,219 units) increased 75 percent versus September 2009
– Chrysler Sebring Convertible sales increased 77 percent versus the previous month
– Ram Truck Brand saw Dodge Dakota sales increase 29 percent versus September
– Production of the all-new 2010 Ram Heavy Duty pickup has begun, and trucks will start arriving in U.S. dealerships just in time for the holidays
– Three Jeep Brand vehicles saw retail sales increases in October compared with September 2009. The three vehicles are: Jeep Compass, Jeep Patriot and Jeep Commander
– Mopar U.S. net sales were down 6 percent compared with September 2009, reflecting challenging market conditions
– In October, Mopar announced hundreds of new products, including: live mobile TV with up to 20 channels and, for racing and off-road enthusiasts, new crate engines, long blocks and aluminum HEMI engine blocks (December availability)
– The brand also announced the opening of the Mopar eStore later this month at www.mopar.com, where consumers will have the opportunity to conveniently order parts and accessories online and have them delivered directly to their doorstep by the nearest dealer

Incentives

Chrysler Group LLC today announced it was furthering its “Invest in America” partnership with more than 2,000 credit unions in the United States by offering preferred pricing on eligible Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge and Ram Truck vehicles through Nov. 30 to the more than 90 million credit union members.

In addition, Chrysler Group LLC announced the following incentives, valid through Nov. 30, 2009.

2010 Model Year Vehicles

Chrysler Brand: Chrysler brand announces a variety of incentive programs to fit almost any need offering consumers various combinations of attractive financing rates and consumer cash.
– Starting November 4, Chrysler offers attractive financing rates, including 0 percent interest for up to 48 months, along with a no-cost service/maintenance program for three years/36,000 miles
– The no-cost maintenance program includes full mechanical coverage, most scheduled maintenance, including oil changes, roadside assistance, trip interruption and alternate transportation when the vehicle is being serviced. Consumers should visit their local Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge dealer for full details of the no-cost maintenance program

– Qualified consumers can choose low APR financing, including 0 percent for up to 48 months, on select 2010 model year vehicles through GMAC Financial Services, or consumer cash of up to $2,500

Jeep Brand: Beginning today, the Jeep brand announces the following incentives:
– Starting November 4, Jeep offers attractive financing rates, including 0 percent interest for up to 48 months, along with a no-cost service/maintenance program for three years/36,000 miles
– Qualified consumers can choose low APR financing, including 0 percent for up to 60 months or consumer cash of up to $3,000
– Current Jeep vehicle owners also are eligible for $500 Owner Loyalty Bonus Cash

Dodge Car Brand: Dodge Car Brand is offering consumers:
– A combination of attractive financing rates as low as 0 percent for up to 48 months and consumer cash of up to $1,000
– Low financing rates for qualified customers, including 0 percent financing for up to 48 months or consumer cash of up to $2,000

Ram Truck Brand: Ram Truck Brand is offering consumers:
– A combination of attractive financing rates as low as 0 percent for up to 48 months and consumer cash of up to $1,000
Low financing rates for qualified customers, including 0 percent financing for up to 48 months or consumer cash of up to $3,500

Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge and Ram dealers continue to offer competitive lease rates on all 2010 model year vehicles. Featured vehicles with special lease rates through Nov. 30, 2009 are: Chrysler Town & Country, Dodge Journey, Jeep Liberty and Wrangler and Ram 1500.

2009 Model Year Vehicles
A limited number of 2009 model year Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge and Ram vehicles are available with a combination of consumer cash and attractive financing rates.

Chrysler Group LLC U.S. Sales Summary Thru October 2009

-------------------------------------------------------

Month Sales   Vol %           Sales CYTD     Vol %

Model         Curr Yr  Pr Yr Change       Curr Yr    Pr Yr  Change

-----         -------  ----- ------       -------    -----  ------

Sebring             2,548  3,772    -32%       19,979    65,200    -69%

300                 2,914  3,415    -15%       32,236    55,222    -42%

Crossfire               0    253   -100%          499     1,819    -73%

PT Cruiser            135  3,145    -96%       16,895    45,490    -63%

Aspen                  54  1,045    -95%        5,906    18,726    -68%

Pacifica                0    606   -100%        1,955     6,227    -69%

Town & Country      7,164  7,667     -7%       68,879   102,954    -33%

CHRYSLER BRAND   12,815 19,903    -36%      146,349   295,638    -50%

--------------   ------ ------    ---       -------   -------    ---

Compass               327    855    -62%       10,352    23,244    -55%

Patriot             1,148  3,252    -65%       26,744    50,596    -47%

Wrangler            5,305  6,292    -16%       70,350    71,427     -2%

Liberty             2,725  3,918    -30%       35,378    58,211    -39%

Grand Cherokee      3,256  5,638    -42%       43,146    62,971    -31%

Commander             739  1,405    -47%        9,582    24,059    -60%

JEEP BRAND       13,500 21,360    -37%      195,552   290,508    -33%

----------       ------ ------    ---       -------   -------    ---

Caliber               583  4,438    -87%       30,397    78,507    -61%

Avenger             4,221  3,723     13%       31,552    57,551    -45%

Charger             4,864  6,255    -22%       50,974    86,475    -41%

Challenger          2,398  3,014    -20%       21,276    11,457     86%

Viper                  28     87    -68%          395       959    -59%

Magnum                  0     56   -100%          113     6,833    -98%

Journey             3,678  4,380    -16%       41,520    40,007      4%

Caravan             9,020  8,369      8%       73,932   110,767    -33%

Nitro               1,426  2,457    -42%       15,071    32,528    -54%

Durango                47    984    -95%        3,463    18,323    -81%

DODGE BRAND      26,265 33,763    -22%      268,693   443,407    -39%

-----------      ------ ------    ---       -------   -------    ---

Dakota                515    957    -46%        9,409    22,583    -58%

Ram P/U            12,262 17,626    -30%      155,467   213,684    -27%

Sprinter              446    921    -52%        5,849    12,229    -52%

RAM BRAND        13,223 19,504    -32%      170,725   248,496    -31%

---------        ------ ------    ---       -------   -------    ---

TOTAL CHRYSLER

GROUP LLC       65,803 94,530    -30%      781,319 1,278,049    -39%

TOTAL CAR     17,556 25,014    -30%      187,423   365,115    -49%

TOTAL TRUCK   48,247 69,516    -31%      593,896   912,934    -35%

Selling Days           28     27                  257       257

------------           --     --                  ---       ---

Source: Chrysler Group LLC

October light vehicle sales

Audi kicked off the reporting, saying it had its third-best October ever with strong performances by the A5 and Q5. Sales trailed last October by just 1.1 percent. On the year, Audi sales for the first ten months of 2009 are just 8.7% behind 2008. Parent company Volkswagen came in with a 7.2% improvement.

BMW sales dropped 18.6 percent while Mini sales fell by 20.8 percent. Mercedes had its best month of 2009 with a 21.3% gain. Smart car sales were down over 70 percent.

GM announced a 4% sales gain, its first in nearly two years, Ford a 3% gain, while Chrysler saw a whopping 30% drop compared with October 2008. Still, Chrysler’s sales were enough to keep it ahead of Nissan among the top six automakers. The Dodge Caravan was the top-selling minivan for the month.

Toyota reported a gain of 64 vehicles or about 4/100 of a percent; Honda sales were down by 362 vehicles, a loss 4 tenths of a percent; Nissan a 6% increase; and Subaru a 41% increase for its best October ever. Mitsubishi sales plunged 48.2% last month.

The Koreans did very well: Hyundai sales shot up 49% while Kia sales were 45.3% better than last October.

This post will be updated throughout the day as sales reports are released. A recap of the month’s activity will be posted tonight.

Big week ahead for Chrysler

Chrysler’s international management includes (l. to r.): CEO Sergio Marchionne, who holds dual Italian and Canadian citizenship, Parisian Olivier Francois, CEO of Chrysler Brand, and Italian Pietro Gorlier, CEO of Mopar brand. Photos courtesy of Chrysler Group LLC.

This is the week for which Chrysler fans and company watchers have been waiting. Tomorrow, Chrysler reports October light vehicle sales and Wednesday, CEO Sergio Marchionne will host a six-hour briefing outlining his plans for Chrysler through 2015.

A panel of auto analysts polled by Bloomberg News predicted Chrysler sales would be down an average of 29 percent. Individual forecasts ranged from a 27 percent drop foreseen by Christopher Ceraso of Credit Suisse to a 34 percent plunge envisioned by Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com, which is currently engaged in a dispute of over the auto site’s botched call on the “Cash for Clunkers” program.

The five-year plan will cover product changes, resource adjustments and the integration of Fiat technology into Chrysler’s product line and production methods. Early reports indicate the alliance is working much more smoothly than the early days of the Daimler-Chrysler “Merger of Equals.” Investment firm Morgan Stanley said that it expects Chrysler to post a positive 1.9 percent margin next year and hit a 4.8 percent EBIT margin by 2011.

Journey top crossover in Mexico as Chrysler beats Ford in September market share

The Dodge Journey was the best-selling crossover vehicle in Mexico last month as Chrysler’s market share rose to an 18-month high, beating Ford for the month. Chrysler captured 11.8 percent of sales compared to Ford’s 11.4 percent. It’s the first time in 15 months that Chrysler has come out ahead.

The Journey was the sales leader, outselling the second place Honda CR-V by better than two-to-one, while the Ram pickup claimed 32 percent of the full-size pickup segment.

Total sales came to 7,068 units, down 1,000 from September 2008, but company officials note sales have been improving every month since June.

Clunkers hangover hits September sales

Last month was somewhat like “the morning after the night before” for light vehicle sales. After the huge “Cash for Clunkers” party in August, consumers spent much of the first half of the September picking up what little was left on dealer lots and automakers were trying to balance the need to replenish inventories with the need to avoid building too many new vehicles. There were signs that sales picked up in the last half of the month, but it wasn’t enough.

The seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate (SAAR) for September was 9.22 million units. That’s 10,000 sales short of April’s result and just 50,000 sales ahead of February which had the lowest SAAR recorded in decades. Automakers sold 745,997 cars and trucks in September, more than a half-million fewer than left dealer lots in August.

Sales were down compared to last September, as well, coming in with a 22.7 percent/218,876-unit shortfall. About 78.7 percent of that deficit came from two sources: General Motors and Chrysler. The two Detroit automakers saw sales plunge 45 percent and 42.1 percent respectively and gave up a combined 11.2 points of market share.

In Chrysler’s case, the slowdown in showroom traffic was combined with a shortage of inventory. The company shut down production for nearly two months in May and June and for another two weeks in July. This meant supplies of popular vehicles, like the Chrysler Town & Country and Dodge Caliber and Caravan, were in short supply and some dealers’ stock was wiped out by the August rush.

There was good news, though. Chrysler’s September market share was nearly a full point higher than it was in August, Wrangler sales were good, the Charger had a good showing. Even though Ram pickup sales were down, they had a good showing compared to GM’s pickups. The Ram trailed the Silverado by less than 6,000 sales. Chrysler’s 56-day inventory level is a plus, as well, down by over 60 percent compared to last September.

GM is still struggling. It doesn’t have the worst year-to-date sales deficit of the major automakers (Chrysler does), but it had the biggest drop in sales, with a major drop in light truck sales, and also lost the biggest chunk of market share compared to last September. GM’s market share in September was 20.9 percent, slightly better than August 2009 but down 8.4 percent compared to the same month last year. Just like Peter Fong, Chrysler’s head honcho for sales, GM’s Mark LaNeve focused his comments on comparisons with August 2009 rather than September 2008.

Ford finished the month in comparatively good shape. The Dearborn automaker, which signed over the title to everything it owned before the bottom dropped out of the credit market, continues to outperform its Southeastern Michigan rivals. Sales were down just 5.1 percent and the blue oval gang picked up 2.8 points of market share, the biggest gain for any automaker. Sales of the F-Series pickup were up 3.5 percent and the new Taurus is receiving a warmer reception than its predecessor. The Fusion remains the top-selling American-badged car in YTD sales, though short supplies of the popular Ford sedan allowed the Chevrolet Impala to take the title for the month.

Toyota, which is currently facing a major recall, lost some ground in September, reporting sales down 12.6 percent. The Sienna was the top-selling minivan for the month and the Camry retained its position as the best-selling car and second-best-selling vehicle in the U.S. Lexus sales were in the black, up 7.3 percent, as Toyota’s premium marque held on to a narrow lead over BMW.

Honda sales were down 20.1 percent and Nissan fall measured 7.0. percent, leaving it in sixth place for the month and year.

Subaru continued to be the only Japanese automaker to beat its year-ago numbers, coming in 0.7 percent ahead of last September. Subaru’s YTD sales are now 10.2 percent ahead of the first nine months of 2008, making it the top-performing automaker in terms of year-over-year comparisons.

The Japanese automakers combined for a 39.4 percent share of the light vehicle market in September, second only to the 4.5 percent share held by GM, Ford and Chrysler.

Hyundai and Kia both finished in the black for the month. Hyundai added 1.7 points of market share to its horde with sales 27.2 percent ahead of September 2008, the largest increase of any of the automakers. Kia sales were up 24.4 percent as the junior Korean automaker celebrated its best sales quarter ever.

Most of the European automakers came in ahead of September 2008. BMW’s margin was 2.1 percent while Mini sales jumped 9.7 percent. Volkswagen sales were up 1.5 percent as the Jetta and CC brought in solid gains. The Chrysler-built Routan minivan enjoyed a 140% jump in sales. Porsche sales were also up by 8.4 percent as the European automakers enlarged their piece of the pie by 1.8 percent. Audi missed its mark by 4.9 percent but added to its market share. Daimler AG was down 13.4 percent, the worst deficit of any of the German automakers. A 9.6 percent miss by Mercedes was magnified by a 54.2 percent plunge in sales of the Smart micro-car.

Even with September’s disappointments, U.S. light vehicle sales are quite likely to top the 10 million mark. August’s incentive-fueled spree added enough sales that sales in October, November and December need only to hit the level achieved last month. Automakers point to signs of improvement in the economy with a few predicting 17-million annual sales by 2014, but no matter what the stock market does, a real recovery in the new car market is going to take some real recovery in the jobs market and we haven’t seen any real jobs creation yet.

When the recovery does come, it will find significant changes in the landscape. Most industry-watchers believe GM’s long reign as the top automaker in America is over, just as its long reign as the world’s top automaker has ended. While they may have been a drag on the company, the loss of Pontiac, Saturn and, to a lesser extent, Hummer and Saab, won’t leave the General with enough sales to maintain its position. Ford, with its strong momentum, is being touted as the new king, but the fact remains that Toyota is still selling more vehicles than Ford. Dearth of new product will likely postpone a significant recovery for Chrysler until at least 2011, when new models developed with Fiat hit the market and the folks in Auburn Hills can field competitive passenger cars.

There’s already talk of a second round of government rebates; the first round was one of the few few federal programs in recent memory to have delivered the results promised and 2010 is an election year. However, as was true with GM’s employee pricing promotion, a replay is unlikely to achieve the spectacular results of the original. The low-hanging fruit has been plucked; millions of would-be carbuyers are still unemployed or under-employed and credit is still fairly tight.

We may have seen the bottom of the market, but we’re still a long way from daylight.

Top 20 by sales through September 30

1. Ford F-Series – 295,426
2. Toyota Camry – 264,357
3. Chevrolet Silverado – 229,388
4. Honda Accord – 221,369
5. Toyota Corolla – 215,038
6. Honda Civic – 207,883
7. Nissan Altima – 154,662
8. Dodge Ram Pickup – 143,205
9. Honda CR-V – 142,906
10. Ford Fusion – 134,600
11. Chevrolet Impala – 126,856
12. Ford Escape – 126,268
13. Ford Focus – 125,913
14. Chevrolet Malibu – 118,995
15. Toyota Rav4 – 106,863
16. Toyota Prius – 104,794
17. Toyota Tacoma – 85,773
18. GMC Sierra – 79,433
19. Honda Odyssey – 77,978
20. Ford E-Series Van – 66,816

Chrysler brands split for 2010

The three Chrysler brands are getting further apart for 2010, starting with different incentive plans. At Dodge, prices have been cut, which the division hopes will raise demand without the need for strenuous rebates. Dodge is providing up to $2,000 in rebates on 2010 models, through November 2.

At Chrysler, buyers can choose between a combination of 0% financing (on three-year or shorter loans) plus a $1,000 rebate, or a total $2,000 rebate; while at Jeep, buyers can get the 0% financing for three years, or up to $3,000 in rebates plus a thousand-dollar owner loyalty rebate. These all apply to 2010 models only; for 2009 models, all Chrysler brands are providing 0% financing for up to 6 years, or up to $4,500 in rebates.

While Chrysler sales fell sharply for September, the company had slashed its advertising and CEO Sergio Marchionne said the low sales should not be considered an indicator of future results, indicating that the company was simply regrouping. Many dealers were short on key vehicles, and those with the sharpest sales declines tended to be the ones that sold best during the government “clunkers” program.