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July sales forecasts

Dart-Crystal-Ball
While sales numbers won’t be released until a week from today and even though there’s one more selling weekend in the month, industry analysts have already issued their forecasts for July light vehicle sales.

Edmunds.com, Kelley Blue Book’s kbb.com, and TrueCar.com all see Chrysler Group reporting the highest growth of the top automakers with sales more than 20% higher than they were in July 2013, a month where Chrysler temporarily fell to fifth in the volume rankings, outsold by American Honda.

Edmunds says Chrysler’s July sales will be about 0.2% below June 2014 while Kelley Blue Book has Chrysler coming in 0.5% ahead. TrueCar looks for sales to be about the same.

Overall, this month is forecast to be the strongest July since 2006. Edmunds, Kelley Blue Book and TrueCar all expect the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) to come in at 16.6 million sales or better, making July the fifth consecutive month that the SAAR has been above 16 million.

J.D. Power/LMC Automotive agrees with the industry estimate and has raised its projections for the full year to 16.3 million cars and light trucks.

“July’s performance is the clearest indication yet that retail buyers are driving market demand,” says Edmunds.com analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Shoppers are looking past news of recalls and rising gas prices and they’re finding affordable interest rates and other incentives that make it easier to buy a new car.”

EDMUNDS.COM SALES FORECAST JULY 2014
Sales Volume Market Share
Manufacturer July 2014¹ July 2013² Change July 2014¹ July 2013² Change
General Motors 258,966 234,071 10.64% 17.72% 17.80% -0.45%
Toyota Motor Sales 217,314 193,394 12.37% 14.87% 14.71% 1.11%
Ford Motor Company 212,714 193,080 10.17% 14.56% 14.68% -0.87%
Chrysler Group 170,659 140,102 21.81% 11.68% 10.66% 9.61%
American Honda 144,701 141,439 2.31% 9.90% 10.76% -7.94%
Hyundai-Kia 126,937 115,009 10.37% 8.69% 8.75% -0.69%
Nissan North America 123,653 109,041 13.40% 8.46% 8.29% 2.04%
Volkswagen Group³ 48,379 48,843 -0.95% 3.31% 3.71% -10.87%
Industry 1,461,290 1,314,891 11.13% N/A
¹Edmunds.com forecast
²Actual sales/share based on manufacturer reports
³Volkswagen Group volume includes only Audi & Volkswagen brands

Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book, said, “Following last month’s record SAAR since July 2006, sales should slow slightly, but remain strong overall in July. Sales in the first half of the year totaled 8.15 million, an increase of 4.2 percent from last year. In the second quarter, sales hit 4.41 million, which is the second-best quarter since 2006.”

KELLEY BLUE BOOK SALES FORECAST JULY 2014
Sales Volume Market Share
Manufacturer July 2014¹ July 2013² Change July 2014¹ July 2013² Change
General Motors 259,000 234,071 10.65% 17.70% 17.80% -0.10%
Toyota Motor Sales 213,000 193,394 10.14% 14.50% 14.70% -0.20%
Ford Motor Company 210,000 193,080 8.76% 14.30% 14.70% -0.40%
Chrysler Group 172,000 140,102 22.77% 11.70% 10.70% 1.10%
American Honda 151,000 141,439 6.76% 10.30% 10.80% -0.50%
Hyundai-Kia 126,000 115,009 9.56% 8.60% 8.80% -0.20%
Nissan North America 125,000 109,041 14.64% 8.50% 8.30% 0.20%
Volkswagen Group³ 54,000 52,663 2.54% 3.70% 4.00% -0.30%
Industry 1,465,000 1,312,991 11.58% N/A
¹Kelley Blue Book forecast
²Actual sales/share based on manufacturer reports
³Volkswagen Group includes Audi, Porsche & Volkswagen brands

“July sales are red hot and better than expected, with our forecast up about 10 percent over last year,” said John Krafcik, president of TrueCar. “While some of the growth is powered by incentive spending up $200 per vehicle, we are seeing continued strong demand for trucks and utility vehicles.”

TrueCar sees Ford continuing to hold onto the No. 2 spot by a slim margin while Edmunds and Kelley Blue Book see the Japanese automaker repeating its performance from last year, when it knocked the Blue Oval down to third by 314 sales.

TrueCar.com’s estimates of incentive spending put Chrysler at the top for the month, averaging $3,458 per vehicle, $60 ahead of Ford and $79 ahead of GM.

TRUECAR.COM SALES FORECAST JULY 2014
Sales Volume Market Share
Manufacturer July 2014¹ July 2013² Change July 2014¹ July 2013² Change
General Motors 268,000 234,071 14.5% 18.56% 17.82% 4.18%
Ford Motor Company 211,000 193,080 9.3% 14.61% 14.70% -0.57%
Toyota Motor Sales 210,000 193,394 8.6% 14.54% 14.72% -1.20%
Chrysler Group 171,000 140,102 22.1% 11.84% 10.66% 11.05%
American Honda 146,000 141,439 3.2% 10.11% 10.77% -6.08%
Hyundai-Kia 125,000 115,009 8.7% 8.66% 8.75% -1.11%
Nissan North America 122,000 109,041 11.9% 8.45% 8.30% 1.80%
Volkswagen Group³ 46,000 52,663 -12.7% 3.19% 4.01% -20.53%
Industry 1,444,000 1,313,844 9.9% N/A
¹TrueCar.com forecast
²Actual sales/share based on manufacturer reports
³Volkswagen Group includes Audi, Porsche & Volkswagen brands

Note: Industry totals vary from source to source due to what each includes and according to each one’s estimate of certain brands, such as Aston Martin, Ferrari, Lamborghini, Lotus and Rolls-Royce, that do not report monthly sales.

June EuroJeep sales

Jeep-Grand-Cherokee-EU-Web
According to figures released this morning by the ACEA, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, registrations of new Jeeps rose by 62.0% in June, to 3,039 units. That puts Jeep up 43.8% for the first half of 2014.

Jeep deliveries grew faster than any other brand except Maserati. This is comparable to results in the North American market.

Total Fiat Chrysler Automobiles registrations rose 6.9%, well ahead of the total market’s 3.9% June increase. Fiat is now in the black for the first half of the year, 2.3% ahead of the first six months of 2013.

Last month, Fiat brand registrations rose 5.5% while Lancia/Chrysler turnover grew by 5.4%. Alfa Romeo sales were off by 2.3%.

FIAT GROUP EUROPEAN REGISTRATIONS: JUNE 2014 and YEAR TO DATE
Brand June 2014 June 2013 Change YTD 2014 YTD 2013 Change
Fiat 57,574 54,582 5.5% 324,735 318,800 1.9%
Lancia/Chrysler 6,847 6,495 5.4% 40,870 41,157 -0.7%
Alfa Romeo 5,775 5,913 -2.3% 32,874 36,240 -9.3%
Jeep 3,039 1,876 62.0% 16,348 11,370 43.8%
Dodge, Maserati & Ferrari 894 451 98.2% 4,803 2,464 94.9%
Fiat Group 74,129 69,317 6.9% 419,630 410,031 2.3%
Total June Registrations 1,230,363 1,179,295 4.3% 6,851,552 6,452,512 6.2%
Data Source: ACEA

Jeep market share rose to 0.25% from last June’s 0.16% as Fiat Group’s share finally rose above six percent.

FIAT GROUP JUNE MARKET SHARE
Brand June 14 June 13 Change YTD 2014 YTD 2013 Change
Fiat 4.68% 4.63% 1.10% 4.74% 4.94% -4.07%
Lancia/Chrysler 0.56% 0.55% 1.04% 0.60% 0.64% -6.48%
Alfa Romeo 0.47% 0.50% -6.39% 0.48% 0.56% -14.57%
Jeep 0.25% 0.16% 55.27% 0.24% 0.18% 35.41%
Dodge, Maserati & Ferrari 0.07% 0.04% 90.00% 0.07% 0.04% 83.57%
Fiat Group 6.02% 5.88% 2.50% 6.12% 6.35% -3.62%
Data Source: ACEA

Chrysler gained in retail and fleet alike

After turning into a “fleet queen” under Daimler, Chrysler is now selling 80% of its cars to retail buyers in June 2014, according to Automotive News. That’s a higher percentage than GM (72%) and Ford (66%), and reaching towards Toyota (84%) and Nissan (86%) territory.

Retail sales growth for Chrysler was the largest for any major automaker, with a 10% rise (over June 2013) to 137,600 vehicles — putting it solidly into the #4 position, between Ford-Lincoln and Honda. GM remains the top dog at 193,600 sales, a 1% increase over June 2013, with Toyota remaining a solid #2 despite a 3% drop, and Ford #3 with 146,000, after a 5% drop. Honda retail sales were down 6%.

Fleet-Sales

In fleet sales, the leader was Ford, despite a 7% drop, with 76,100 sales. GM came in at a moderately close #2, despite a 2% gain (around 74,000 sales), and Chrysler was a distant #3 — with less than half of GM’s sales — despite a 6% rise. Toyota had a sharp gain in fleet sales, shooting up by 61% , and coming within 2,000 sales of Chrysler’s position. Hyundai/Kia also sold more fleet cars, with sales up by 33%, and ended up at 24,800 sales — around 6,700 away from Toyota.

One year ago, Chrysler also had 80% of its sales at retail; GM and Ford were at similar proportions to June 2014 (73% and 65%, respectively). Toyota is selling a greater percentage of vehicles to fleets (90% retail in June 2013, 84% in June 2014). Honda and Nissan were roughly even, year to year.

Fleets include commercial, government, nonprofit, and rental-fleets. Some fleet sales are desirable (police cars, for the image; businesses, for the trucks), and some are not (generally, rental fleets). However, a high proportion of retail sales for Chrysler indicates a rising public image, something almost unimaginable during the dog days of 2007-2009.

Chrysler Group leads in SUV growth

Dodge-Durango2014-Chart-Web

Crossovers and Sport-utility vehicles are currently the hottest segment of the light vehicle market in the U.S. and Canada, accounting for about a third of total light vehicle deliveries from January 1 to June 30. CUV/SUV segment growth in the U.S. and Canadian markets easily outpaced overall industry growth.

At the end of the first half of 2014, Chrysler Group leads that growth in several important metrics: it has the highest growth of any car maker in the U.S. and combined U.S. and Canadian markets and it is the volume leader in Canada where it has the highest growth of any domestic automaker.

Chrysler’s Dodge and Jeep brands combined to deliver the highest sales per model of any automaker in both the U.S. and Canadian markets. As Allpar reported earlier, Jeep has the highest sales per model of any brand in the U.S. and combined U.S. and Canadian markets, but Dodge is No. 5 on the list and Ford is the only domestic brand that beats it. When it comes to the Canadian market, Dodge is Chrysler’s top performer in sales per model, coming in second only to Hyundai.

U.S. & CANADA CROSSOVER/SUV SALES GROWTH: H1-2014
Manufacturer U.S Canada Combined
Chrysler Group 37.5% 23.0% 31.6%
Subaru USA 24.3% 24.3% 24.3%
Toyota Motor Sales 17.2% 7.8% 16.4%
Jaguar Land Rover 13.9% 32.4% 15.7%
Mitsubishi North America 27.2% -20.2% 14.1%
Hyundai-Kia 14.3% 8.5% 13.4%
BMW Group 14.5% 4.3% 13.2%
Nissan North America 10.3% 37.8% 12.6%
Mazda NAO 12.9% 7.7% 12.1%
Mercedes-Benz USA 4.9% 4.3% 4.8%
General Motors 3.7% 6.4% 3.9%
American Honda 2.7% 2.2% 2.7%
Volkswagen Group -2.6% 25.4% 1.5%
Ford Motor Company -0.5% 9.9% 0.5%
Volvo Cars North America -17.9% -20.6% -18.1%
Total CUV/SUV Growth 11.5% 7.0% 11.0%
Total Light Vehicle Growth 4.3% 2.8% 4.1%

Chrysler Canada sales update (adds details)

Chrysler-Canada-No-1-Web
Complete June sales figures provide a more complete picture, including a few untold stories.

In the first six months of 2014, Dodge Durango sales have soared 75.8%. In June, the increase was 252.2%, a higher growth rate than any other continuing Chrysler Group product, excluding new vehicles like the Fiat 500L.

The Ram Chassis Cab and Ram Cargo van also posted big gains in both the monthly and the calendar-year-to-date (CYTD) tallies.

Light trucks accounted for 85.1% of total June sales and 86.8% of CYTD sales, up from 79.2% of sales for the same periods last year.

CHRYSLER CANADA SALES: JUNE 2014 & CYTD
Model Jun-14 Jun-13 Change CYTD 2014 CYTD 2013 Change
200 1,127 1,521 -25.9% 4,497 7,202 -37.6%
300 817 690 18.4% 3,077 4,042 -23.9%
Town & Country 706 902 -21.7% 5,024 4,985 0.8%
CHRYSLER BRAND 2,650 3,113 -14.9% 12,598 16,229 -22.4%
Dart 1,064 900 18.2% 4,362 5,113 -14.7%
Avenger 33 1,000 -96.7% 452 4,907 -90.8%
Caliber 0 0 Disc. 0 7 Disc.
Charger 225 409 -45.0% 2,582 2,695 -4.2%
Challenger 131 210 -37.6% 893 1,028 -13.1%
Viper 21 0 N/A 70 6 1066.7%
Journey 2,072 2,714 -23.7% 12,532 14,100 -11.1%
Caravan 4,714 4,268 10.4% 26,555 23,741 11.9%
Durango 398 113 252.2% 1,916 1,090 75.8%
DODGE  BRAND 8,658 9,614 -9.9% 49,362 52,687 -6.3%
Compass 475 911 -47.9% 3,113 4,290 -27.4%
Patriot 403 615 -34.5% 2,730 3,457 -21.0%
Wrangler 2,553 2,238 14.1% 11,476 10,161 12.9%
Liberty 0 1 -100.0% 0 13 -100.0%
Grand Cherokee 1,100 1,394 -21.1% 5,695 5,716 -0.4%
Cherokee 2,286 0 NEW 10,279 0 NEW
JEEP BRAND 6,817 5,159 32.1% 33,293 23,637 40.9%
Ram Pickup 7,251 7,176 1.0% 42,838 41,228 3.9%
Ram Chassis Cab 250 168 48.8% 1,088 679 60.2%
Cargo Van 289 232 24.6% 1,207 794 52.0%
ProMaster Van 244 0 NEW 1,129 0 NEW
RAM BRAND 8,034 7,576 6.0% 46,262 42,701 8.3%
500 570 728 -21.7% 3,433 3,948 -13.0%
500L 284 32 787.5% 1,644 32 5037.5%
FIAT BRAND 854 760 12.4% 5,077 3,980 27.6%
GRAND TOTAL 27,013 26,222 3.0% 146,592 139,234 5.3%
TOTAL CAR 3,988 5,458 -26.9% 19,366 28,948 -33.1%
TOTAL TRUCK 23,025 20,764 10.9% 127,266 110,286 15.4%

Chrysler celebrates with June sales

Dodge-Bros-in-Tourer-Web

Chrysler Group celebrated the 100th anniversary of the formation of Dodge by reporting its 51st consecutive month of sales growth.

June 2014 sales totaled 171,086 units, up 9.2% from June 2013′s 156,686 units, marking the group’s best June sales since 2007.

Sales were down 12.0% from May 2014, which is not surprising. This year’s effect was magnified by the fact June had two fewer selling days than May of this year.

Chrysler-Chart-0614

The Jeep, Dodge, Ram Truck and Fiat brands all reported improved sales with Jeep’s 27.8% leading the way while setting a new June sales record.

“In spite of two fewer selling days in June versus a year ago, we were able to increase our sales 9 percent and post our strongest June sales in seven years,” said Reid Bigland, Head of U.S. Sales. “Month-over-month sales of our all-new Chrysler 200 increased from a few hundred units in May to more than 5,000 in June as inventory of the mid-size sedan continues to build. In addition, sales of the Jeep brand increased 28 percent and our Ram Truck brand 14 percent helping to lead Chrysler Group to its 51st-consecutive month of year-over-year sales growth.”

The new 2015 Chrysler 200 size sedan is off to a strong start as inventory continues to build at Chrysler dealerships. It is taking dealers on average only 12 days to turn the new 200. Sales of the new 200 topped 5,000 units in June, up from 595 units in its first month on sale in May.

Six Chrysler Group vehicles set June sales records: Jeep Patriot, Compass, and Wrangler; Fiat 500L; Dodge Journey and Dodge Dart. Ram pickup sales rose 12% marking their best June in 10 years.

Chrysler Group finished the month of June with a 72 days supply of inventory (509,714 units). U.S. industry sales figures for June are internally projected at an estimated 17 million units Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR).

CHRYSLER GROUP LLC SALES: JUNE 2014 & CYTD
Model Jun-14 Jun-13 Change CYTD 2014 CYTD 2013 Change
200 7,345 12,360 -40.6% 45,178 75,015 -39.8%
300 3,566 4,280 -16.7% 26,014 29,445 -11.7%
Town & Country 13,115 10,609 23.6% 69,876 59,379 17.7%
CHRYSLER BRAND 24,026 27,249 -11.8% 141,068 163,839 -13.9%
Dart 7,225 6,437 12.2% 37,967 44,949 -15.5%
Avenger 5,344 7,582 -29.5% 40,463 61,018 -33.7%
Charger 8,444 9,812 -13.9% 49,767 51,981 -4.3%
Challenger 4,377 5,101 -14.2% 26,281 29,982 -12.3%
Viper 36 97 -62.9% 354 226 56.6%
Journey 7,448 5,999 24.2% 47,151 42,436 11.1%
Caravan 12,457 10,225 21.8% 72,066 59,472 21.2%
Durango 4,983 4,590 8.6% 32,875 28,305 16.1%
DODGE  BRAND 50,314 49,843 0.9% 306,924 318,414 -3.6%
Compass 5,302 5,034 5.3% 33,092 26,778 23.6%
Patriot 6,873 6,690 2.7% 43,928 38,115 15.3%
Wrangler 16,439 16,165 1.7% 85,737 77,728 10.3%
Liberty 0 94 -100.0% 0 5,988 -100.0%
Grand Cherokee 15,055 16,626 -9.4% 89,613 80,796 10.9%
Cherokee 13,337 0 NEW 80,432 0 NEW
JEEP BRAND 57,006 44,609 27.8% 332,802 229,405 45.1%
Ram Pickup & Chassis-Cab 33,149 29,644 11.8% 203,860 170,319 19.7%
Cargo Van 982 1,291 -23.9% 4,790 4,743 1.0%
ProMaster Van 1,131 0 NEW 5,707 0 NEW
RAM BRAND 35,262 30,935 14.0% 214,357 175,062 22.4%
500 3,328 3,509 -5.2% 18,179 21,071 -13.7%
500L 1,150 541 112.6% 6,793 541 1155.6%
FIAT BRAND 4,478 4,050 10.6% 24,972 21,612 15.5%
GRAND TOTAL 171,086 156,686 9.2% 1,020,123 908,332 12.3%
TOTAL CAR 39,665 49,178 -19.3% 244,203 313,732 -22.2%
TOTAL TRUCK 131,421 107,508 22.2% 775,920 594,600 30.5%


1999-2004 Jeep Grand Cherokee


Dodge cars, 1967-1980


Driven: Fiat 500L


Chrysler Institute of Engineering

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