The Death of the Minivan?!?
In the future 2006 will be remembered as the beginning of the end of the minivan?!?
Ford Motor Company was the first to blink. In 2006 they were the first to announce that they would be killing off their Mercury Monterey. They have yet to announce the death of the Ford Freestar but it has been rumored that the last will be rolling off the line come next spring.
This scenario makes sense since Ford is going through a reconstruction phase and Ford had only sold 3,374 Freestars in July; half as many as during the same period in 2005. Year-to-date sales for the Freestar are down more than 27 percent. Sales of the Monterey have fallen even faster, dropping nearly 53 percent in July and almost 43 percent for the first seven months of 2006. Ford’s minivan sales have dropped from more than 250,000 units in 2000 to fewer than 86,000 units last year. Last year the two FoMoCo minivans have accounted for only 7.8 percent of the segment.
Instead of minivans, Ford is hoping that people will like their new full-size Fairlane crossover. This vehicle will finally make its debut in 2008. Lincoln is also rumored to get is own version of the Fairlane. A Lincoln minivan? Well, if it wasn’t for the Benz R-class I would have thought that this would have been a crazy idea.
People have predicted the next big industry boom will be the crossover segment. Other manufactures have agreed with this assessment. Mazda Motor Corp., which is controlled by Ford, still sells the MPV minivan in the United States. Come 2007 the MPV will be no more. Instead Mazda will be hoping that their pair of people movers, the CX-7 and CX-9, will surpass the present sales of their current MPV.
But things are not all that bad for the minivan segment. It has been rumored that GM will produce a minivan for the GMC brand. The minivan will be based on the automaker’s Lambda architecture; the as-yet-unnamed minivan will be a sibling to the next-generation Chevrolet Uplander. The Lambda platform will also host the GMC Acadia, Saturn Outlook, and Buick Enclave crossovers. But as the same time they have announced three new crossovers for the GMC, Saturn, and Buick brands there is a rumor that by 2009 three of the current four GM minivans will be dead, Saturn Relay, Buick Terraza, and the Pontiac Montana. That will leave the growing GMC-Buick-Pontiac retail channel with only a single minivan come 2009.
Taking the place of minivans are cars, which are more fuel-efficient, and crossovers, which boast SUV-like styling with the handling and fuel efficiency closer to that of a car than an SUV. Things aren’t so terribly bad for the imports, but GM and Ford are suffering heavily. Down 35.8 percent and 30.3 percent respectively in the minivan segment, GM and Ford are hoping their crossovers can woo former minivan and SUV owners alike.
According to the Power Information Network, about 16.5% of customers who trade in a minivan move to a car and 15.1% move to a crossover. GM and Ford are currently picking up crossover sales. In addition, Ford is gaining in passenger-car sales. GM car sales are down 12.9% this year.
Here is the list of the current 2006 minivans along with Current and Future Crossovers (Vehicles that are rumored or known to have been axed have an asterix):
GM
*Buick Terraza $27,250 – $33,250
Buick Enclave
Chevrolet Uplander $21,150 – $33,250
Chevrolet Lambda based Crossover (uncertain)
GMC Acadia
GMC Lambda based Minivan
*Pontiac Montana SV6 $24,250 – $27,750
*Saturn Relay $22,750 – $29,250
Saturn Outlook
DCX
Chrysler Town & Country $21,345 – $36,255
Chrysler Pacifica
Dodge Caravan $18,630 – $27,300
Dodge JC49 (uncertain)
Ford/Mazda
*Ford Freestar $23,655 – $29,575
Ford (FairLane?)
Lincoln Crossover
Mazda Mazda5 $17,435 – $18,950
*Mazda MPV $22,115 – $28,515
Mazda CX-7 & CX-9
*Mercury Monterey $28,595
Honda
Honda Odyssey $25,345 – $36,595
Honda Pilot
Hyundai
Hyundai Entourage $23,795 – $28,795
Hyundai Veracruz
Kia Sedona $22,995 – $25,595
Nissan
Nissan Quest $24,150 – $33,650
Nissan Murano
Toyota
Toyota Sienna $23,775 – $38,380
Toyota Highlander
So do you think this is the beginning of the end of the minivan? Will it fight off this crossover craze? Let’s hope so for DCX’s sake. DCX produces more minivans then it does the Dodge Ram. It is DCX’s number one segment.
I’m not sure I agree that the minivan segment is dying. I’d be curious what the sales are of the whole market 10 and 5 years ago vs. today.
While crossovers are hot with the media right now, they don’t have the sales volume anywhere close to the minivan market. I think crossovers are great alternatives to small and mid-sized SUV’s with better ride, handling, and fuel economy, but minivans have almost twice the interior space as crossovers. That means more comfort for passengers as well as their cargo. Families still need that space for transporting kids (and kids’ frineds) around town with all the extra circicular accessories.
Ford and GM’s minivans havn’t been competitive for many years. The public has spoken with their wallets. Instead of trying to become competitive in the minvan market, they are chosing to abandon it to try to take advantage I’m not sure I agree that the minivan segment is dying. I’d be curious what the sales are of the whole market 10 and 5 years ago vs. today.
While crossovers are hot with the media right now, they don’t have the sales volume anywhere close to the minivan market. I think crossovers are great alternatives to small and mid-sized SUV’s with better ride, handling, and fuel economy, but minivans have almost twice the interior space as crossovers. That means more comfort for passengers as well as their cargo. Families still need that space for transporting kids (and kids’ friends) around town with all the extra curricular accessories.
Ford and GM’s minivans haven’t been competitive for many years. The public has spoken with their wallets. Instead of trying to become competitive in the minivan market, they are choosing to abandon it to try to take advantage of the current/next hot wave.
of the current/next hot wave.
Minivans do one thing better than anything else: they haul people and their detritus. They haul people better than an SUV, better than a crossover. The pesky thing about people is that they often have little versions of themselves running around, and minivans are perfect for hauling those little people around. That’s why they became dominant, and why many people grudgingly still buy them….because they’re the best tool for the job. Many others buy less capable vehicles and suffer in silence.
The only minivans that have flopped have been the ones that aren’t very good. The good ones succeed.
I think it’s just the market maturing and people recognizing who makes a good minivan and who doesn’t. If Ford and GM have never – ever – produced a competitve minivan there’s little reason to shop them. When the market is new everyone cross shops everyone because no baseline has been set. In the public perception, they now “know” who makes a van worth considering, and don’t bother to even look beyond that group.
The four door sedan was once on the ‘endangered’ list as well, when minivans & SUVs were the hottest ticket. Now a lot of “Crossovers” are flooding the market, but the old standby four door sedan still has it’s place. Those companies who aren’t presently known for competivness in that segment are having issues in it, but established players are doing just fine. The “Crossover” isn’t any more of a challenge to the minivan than the traditional SUV was because they share the same faults; it’s harder to get in and out of the back, there isn’t as much storage room, and they lack the amenities of a minivan.
So for those who do minivans well, I think they’ll be just fine….
There’s a good book, ‘boom, bust, and echo’. it discusses how like 7/8ths of trending can be related back to population age demographics.
“…
In 2002, 328,802 babies were born, down 1.5 per cent from the previous year, and down 25.4 per cent in the last 10 years alone. The rate dropped to 10.5 live births for every 1,000 population, “the lowest since vital statistics began to be produced nationally in 1921,” the agency said Monday.
…” (from http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1082386025485_10//)
Is it just possible the reason for some sliding sales of minivans is that my age group (30yrs, born 1976) was one of the lowest births in canada/us? Additionally, fewer of my peers are rushing to have kids. Fewer people having kids = fewwer people needing minivans.
just a thought, my next vehicle will be a compass (if they give a decent financing rate).
Amusingly, there has also been research that shows that the fall in the crime rate is almost entirely due to the availability of legal abortion and eased access to birth control. Makes sense really – unwanted children, especially those caused by rape, are more likely (one would think) to be treated badly and neglected, and such treatment has been linked to crime… I guess that’s kind of off-topic. However I do suspect that you’re right there — most people buy minivans (and large SUVs!) because they have kids.
Like most Canadians, apparently, I really do wonder about people who buy SUVs because they wouldn’t be caught dead in a minivan. Automotive News had an article about Nissan working on a man-friendly minivan because men hate driving minivans; but if you’ve driven one in the past ten years, you know that the problem isn’t the minivan itself but the image they think it projects. Kinda sad that men will pay $10,000 more to get a less-efficient vehicle with the same space and not-quite-as-good driving characteristics… minivans corner well, accelerate well, and are usually more comfortable than SUVs, but ooo, they show you have CHILDREN. … I really don’t understand why anyone would DENY that they’re a parent. Seems like a damned nice role to me.
Maybe if we (as a nation) treated our children more like adults, set more rules and gave more responsibilities and duties, they wouldn’t behave like spoiled children when they grew up. Just a thought.
One thing that many people overlook is that the Ford Windstar has (or had) the reputation of being a piece o junk——-major engine issues in the 1990′s versions. Yet the Taurus from which the Windstar was based off of seemed to hold up much better.
Yes; I am well aware of Chrysler and its AT604 fiasco………just that when it reared its ugly head, Mopar already had a ‘bulletproof’ following with the Caravan and Voyager so there was more ‘goodwill’ in the ‘bank’, as it were.
And; to be honest: I have heard nada about exploding AT’s in today’s Caravan/T & C.
Back to main topic: despite the lack of ‘testosterone’————minivans flat WORK as vehicles. Having owned one SUV that I bought new, a Nissan Xterra……I would not have another despite the older ones being reliable. If I am going to deal with 16 MPG avg driving; I want the power AND interior room of which a Caravan has in spades. Besides; as has been pointed out: most minivans are actually quite comfortable to drive. To me at least: my 49 YO body trumps ergonomics over machismo.
After 23 years of driving trucks, I bought a Minivan because I wouldn’t pay $10,000 more to get a less-efficient vehicle with the same space and not-quite-as-good driving characteristics… such as an SUV. DCX cars (and others in general) have shrunk .. there’s no headroom, legroom, they’re narrow and if they’re big enough then they cost $$$.
With my Caravan I sit up higher (like my trucks), have more space, corner well, accelerate well (good anyhow), gets better mileage than my Dakota and is probably more comfortable than SUVs.
Since DCX wouldn’t take my advice of taking the extended-cab Dakota cab, the quad-cab box and putting it on the 113″ wb
- I wasn’t about to buy a longer wheelbase truck just to get locable storage space. And while the Durango used to offer
that – it’s price tag & poor mileage scared me off.
My family have wondered why a Single man would buy a Minivan… it’s for all the above reasons. Maybe they see, as Dave pointed out “but ooo, they show you have CHILDREN”. Sorry it shows I have comfort, space, ease-of-driving/parking.
Could there be improvements… yes…. give me a 250 HP V6, 5 Speed, Caravan Short-Wheelbase with Stow ‘n’ Go seats, lower the ride height 2-4″ + bigger sway bars to improve the cornering and I’d be much happier.
I wonder if Stutgart figures we fat Americans want only 4,500 lb tanks that get 16 MPG. This looks more and more like 1977 and the Japanese makers are going to gain market share from Ford, GM & Chrysler. I hate to admit it but my next vehicle will be whatever van that is well built, attractive etc. that gets around 30 MPG city and I dont see any domestic vans that fit that description at this time. My Voyager has 145,000 miles and the only way I would stay in a chrysler at this time would be to buy used or rebuild the old one. The Pacifica is beautiful but weighs 4,200- Ford Explorer territory. When did they forget its a MINI-van as in small. My 93 voyager was nimble and fun, my 99 is more refined but not a slug, I rented a 2006 T&C and it drove like it had ballast in the tires, my 99 is faster with all of the mileage on it. I am getting depressed with the options, maybe I should turbocharge the 3.3 or put a 3.5 in the 99 voyager and wait 5 more years till they make something I want.
I have to wonder. I’m in a Yukon this week and it has luxury features the Town & Country never dreamed of, yet with its V8 it’s as fast as a V6 T&C and can’t handle or ride as well. It’s a shame that Auburn Hills let the Chrysler name slide so far, and that Stuttgart simply renamed Plymouth to Chrysler.
It’s interesting reading these comments two years later. All the domestic auto manufacturers are in trouble, but it looks as if Chrysler has come up with another winner in its latest minivan iteration. Minivans work. They’re the best idea Detroit ever came up with.
But minivans have certainly become porky. The new ones weigh 1,200 pounds more than the early 90s versions I’ve been driving. The 3.3 liter is the most underrated engine Detroit ever designed. It’s absolutely bulletproof and has lots of low-end torque. In an early 90s minivan, the 3.3 will easily pull a full-sized car behind it on a towing dolly and never feel stressed. It’ll put out 24 mpg like clockwork.
My 1993 5-speed 2.5 liter Caravan averaged 29.5 mpg over its life. It had more than enough power for me, but then, it only weighed 3,300 pounds. That’s less than some versions of the Caliber, a Neon replacement! It’s winter traction was phenomenal; never left me stranded anywhere driving in northern Minnesota and North Dakota. I took it down plenty of logging and winter roads.
Take a look at the Dacia Logan MCV available in Europe. It seats 7, weighs 2,500 pounds, and uses a 1.5 liter turbo-diesel to get 50 mpg. If Chrysler took the Akino minivan concept, put a 2 liter TDI into it, they would have a winner.