The Death of the Minivan?!?

In the future 2006 will be remembered as the beginning of the end of the minivan?!? 

Ford Motor Company was the first to blink. In 2006 they were the first to announce that they would be killing off their Mercury Monterey. They have yet to announce the death of the Ford Freestar but it has been rumored that the last will be rolling off the line come next spring. 

This scenario makes sense since Ford is going through a reconstruction phase and Ford had only sold 3,374 Freestars in July; half as many as during the same period in 2005. Year-to-date sales for the Freestar are down more than 27 percent. Sales of the Monterey have fallen even faster, dropping nearly 53 percent in July and almost 43 percent for the first seven months of 2006. Ford’s minivan sales have dropped from more than 250,000 units in 2000 to fewer than 86,000 units last year. Last year the two FoMoCo minivans have accounted for only 7.8 percent of the segment.

Instead of minivans, Ford is hoping that people will like their new full-size Fairlane crossover. This vehicle will finally make its debut in 2008. Lincoln is also rumored to get is own version of the Fairlane. A Lincoln minivan? Well, if it wasn’t for the Benz R-class I would have thought that this would have been a crazy idea.

People have predicted the next big industry boom will be the crossover segment. Other manufactures have agreed with this assessment. Mazda Motor Corp., which is controlled by Ford, still sells the MPV minivan in the United States. Come 2007 the MPV will be no more. Instead Mazda will be hoping that their pair of people movers, the CX-7 and CX-9, will surpass the present sales of their current MPV. 

But things are not all that bad for the minivan segment. It has been rumored that GM will produce a minivan for the GMC brand. The minivan will be based on the automaker’s Lambda architecture; the as-yet-unnamed minivan will be a sibling to the next-generation Chevrolet Uplander. The Lambda platform will also host the GMC Acadia, Saturn Outlook, and Buick Enclave crossovers. But as the same time they have announced three new crossovers for the GMC, Saturn, and Buick brands there is a rumor that by 2009 three of the current four GM minivans will be dead, Saturn Relay, Buick Terraza, and the Pontiac Montana. That will leave the growing GMC-Buick-Pontiac retail channel with only a single minivan come 2009. 

Taking the place of minivans are cars, which are more fuel-efficient, and crossovers, which boast SUV-like styling with the handling and fuel efficiency closer to that of a car than an SUV. Things aren’t so terribly bad for the imports, but GM and Ford are suffering heavily. Down 35.8 percent and 30.3 percent respectively in the minivan segment, GM and Ford are hoping their crossovers can woo former minivan and SUV owners alike.

According to the Power Information Network, about 16.5% of customers who trade in a minivan move to a car and 15.1% move to a crossover. GM and Ford are currently picking up crossover sales. In addition, Ford is gaining in passenger-car sales. GM car sales are down 12.9% this year. 

Here is the list of the current 2006 minivans along with Current and Future Crossovers (Vehicles that are rumored or known to have been axed have an asterix): 

GM
*Buick Terraza $27,250 - $33,250
Buick Enclave
Chevrolet Uplander $21,150 - $33,250
Chevrolet Lambda based Crossover (uncertain)
GMC Acadia
GMC Lambda based Minivan
*Pontiac Montana SV6 $24,250 - $27,750
*Saturn Relay $22,750 - $29,250
Saturn Outlook

DCX
Chrysler Town & Country $21,345 - $36,255
Chrysler Pacifica
Dodge Caravan $18,630 - $27,300
Dodge JC49 (uncertain)

Ford/Mazda
*Ford Freestar $23,655 - $29,575
Ford (FairLane?)
Lincoln Crossover
Mazda Mazda5 $17,435 - $18,950
*Mazda MPV $22,115 - $28,515
Mazda CX-7 & CX-9
*Mercury Monterey $28,595

Honda
Honda Odyssey $25,345 - $36,595
Honda Pilot

Hyundai
Hyundai Entourage $23,795 - $28,795
Hyundai Veracruz
Kia Sedona $22,995 - $25,595

Nissan
Nissan Quest $24,150 - $33,650
Nissan Murano

Toyota
Toyota Sienna $23,775 - $38,380
Toyota Highlander

So do you think this is the beginning of the end of the minivan?  Will it fight off this crossover craze?  Let’s hope so for DCX’s sake.  DCX produces more minivans then it does the Dodge Ram.  It is DCX’s number one segment.