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Archive for February, 2008

What will stay and what will go?

This is just my opinion based on current reports. There might be more new vehicles to replace the ones I’m counting as living. My guess is that the Caliber, Patriot, and Compass might all be dropped and Belvedere closed when the China-cars come online, unless they replace them all with entry-level cars or some new segments - but I think future cars will come from cheap-labor markets. (Though the falling dollar might ameliorate that - the question is, are people chasing low costs or following dogma?)

Note that if we look at the cuts the following way, they don’t seem so bad. I’m also expecting a Scrambler pickup, so Dakota might disappear to make room for that. Durango and Aspen might both go away if every dealership has all brands.

This leaves more than the normally stated 30 models, but of course Chally isn’t on sale yet. Your comments on revisions would be appreciated.

Most scary to me is a rumor that more engineers are going to be laid off. What’s the point in flexible manufacturing if they won’t pay for cars to be engineered and built?

Dodge

1 Avenger In the process of being redesigned from the ground up Living
2 Caliber Too similar to Patriot, Journey; retail sales slow Up for grabs
3 Caliber SRT-4 Life depends on profits and Caliber’s survival Unknown
4 Charger Not going anywhere; staple big car Living
5 Charger SRT-8 Being updated in a year or two; probably profitable Living
6 Challenger New! Living
7 Challenger SRT-8 Seems successful so far Living
8 Journey New. I’m not as optimistic as they are. Living
9 Magnum Fate sealed. Dead
10 Viper Fate reportedly sealed as of 2011. Hard to keep it on top. Dying
11 Caravan One of the company’s best sellers; needs interior restyling, suspension tuning Living
12 Ram 1500 You must be joking Living
13 Ram 2500/3500 Still big sales Living
14 Durango Slow sales; needs considerable work; obsolete factory In doubt
15 Dakota Slow sales; weight reduction and re-niche-ing was planned In doubt
16 Nitro I suspect it’ll get the axe - just not popular enough to keep when all stores sell all brands In doubt

Chrysler

17 Crossfire SRT6 Linked to Crossfire Dying
18 PT Cruiser Could still be saved if Journey bombs, since it uses the same line Dying
19 Sebring Sedan Too low-end to be a Chrysler; could survive as just a Dodge Could be dropped
20 Sebring Convertible Best selling ragtop; name has considerable weight Living
21 300 Base model drags down the reputation and duplicates Charger In doubt
22 300C Iconic, popular, the only "real" Chrysler Living
23 300C SRT8 Could go either way In doubt
24 Aspen Almost certain to go away; though I’d keep and rename it! Dying
25 Pacifica Already announced Dying
26 Town & Country Personally I’d keep this as a pure luxury minivan, one model, with full options and better sound insulation, smoother ride than the Dodge. My suspicion is they’ll keep trying to shift sales from Dodge to Chrysler. At least they should change the name, it’s so hard to type! Living
27 PT Convertible Already dead Dead
28 Crossfire Why? Dying

Jeep

29 Patriot Moderately successful but if they dropped it, they could close Belvedere In doubt
30 Compass Pretty much certain to get killed Dying
31 Commander Hasn’t been a huge success, though it should have done well Dying
32 Grand Cherokee A Jeep staple that’s done poorly since the redesign, it’ll probably survive Living
33 Wrangler Really has to be kept Living
34 Liberty Once a Jeep staple, it overlaps the Patriot to a degree, and removing both it and the Nitro would allow Cerberus to shut another factory. Isn’t that the way you rescue an American icon? Not sure
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Do things seem faster to you?

In the middle of last month, a helpful LiquidWeb employee converted allpar from Apache 1.3 to Apache 2.2, and the site suddenly sped up dramatically - and server load went down.

About a week after that, I installed (after consulting with LiquidWeb) a few tweaks, and the site sped up again - and server load went down again. That turned out to be good given that we got a lot of traffic from the Chicago show.

The result finally showed up in Alexa’s rankings. Allpar has been listed as “very slow” - slower than 92% of sites with a home page load of 7 seconds. Now, averaged out for the entire month, Allpar is nearly twice as fast, and is just ranked as “slow.” We’re hoping for “fast” but our changes were made mid-month, so we’ll have to wait until the first week of February to see what Alexa thinks then.

If you know of another benchmarking site, it would be good to know - but Allpar sure seems faster to me.

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The three-headed dog of Chrysler (updated)

Cerberus has apparently taken its image as the three-headed dog guarding the entrance to Hell (from the demons within) to heart, as they’ve put three different heads in charge of Chrysler.

At the very top is Bob Nardelli, who has taken a bunch of his old pals from GE and Home Depot and installed them in various spots; his past showed a preference for moving production to China, stripping out product and service quality, and slashing prices. So far we’ve seen the first and last of those - prices are being cut by bundling more freebies with the cars, and many parts purchases are indeed moving to China, with India being established as a tertiary engineering base after the U.S. and China. That said, he was also known for yelling at employees and being less than easy to get along with, while at Chrysler he is now known for listening patiently and trusting the opinions of those with experience and knowledge. He’s a tough one to figure out, but his pals seem to have kept their predilections for cheap-labor outsourcing.

The next head is Jim Press, whose tenure at Toyota was marked by hounding the massive Japanese automaker into having a substantial U.S. engineering presence which essentially customized Toyotas for the American market, not unlike the work of the Australians in getting Valiants into shape for the land down under. Press’ efforts, if other writers are accurate, brought us Scion, Lexus, the American version of the Camry, and the Avalon, not to mention the new Tundra, which if nothing else is giving American automakers fits - and that’s before the heavy duty and diesel models appear. It’s hard not to respect Jim Press, and not just because Toyota earned its success in the United States with likable vehicles that generally get better mileage than their peers, generally appear at the top of quality charts, and generally satisfy their customers. He’s just a likable guy - he seems much more natural than the average auto exec, more approachable and more human, less tightly scripted, and far, far, far less arrogant.

Finally, we have Tom LaSorda, who you just have to respect for the way he’s brought manufacturing plant technology ahead of nearly all competitors, while simultaneously going back to the future in plant management. The use of empowered work teams is so counter to anything Detroit has done lately, (aside from Chrysler in the early-to-mid 1990s, of course), and so counter to the Mercedes method of “Men in White,” that you just have to admire him for getting it done.

These are the three men in charge, and there’s bound to be some real, elemental conflict. Press wants quality above all else - quality being defined, presumably, as nothing going wrong for the owners. I think Press would be happy to lose money five years in a row if he could get reliability to where he wants it, knowing that he’d be paid back in profits when Chrysler didn’t need discounts or fancy styling to get customers. He quite probably wants Chrysler to be the default choice, as Honda and Toyota are now.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is Bob Nardelli, who has pretty much proven he likes short-term profits above all else. Perhaps he’s changed now, but we have no evidence of that other than numerous speeches, and I for one don’t believe what people say if I haven’t seen what they do yet.

It’s hard to say where Tom LaSorda, the one guy who actually came from Chrysler, fits into all this. I think he’d probably rather work with Jim Press than Bob Nardelli, but for all I know he was relieved to have someone else take over. Not everyone wants to be highly visible. LaSorda seemed to get along with the Stuttgart crew, and he seems to get along with Cerberus crew. Is he very friendly and flexible, or a yes-man, or just a smart production guy who minds his own store? That’s for those who know him to say.

It’s hard to make all the right moves when you have three heads. Hopefully Chrysler will find some synergy, but at this point it’s probably too early for those of us on the outside to know what’ll happen next.

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