What will stay and what will go?

This is just my opinion based on current reports. There might be more new vehicles to replace the ones I’m counting as living. My guess is that the Caliber, Patriot, and Compass might all be dropped and Belvedere closed when the China-cars come online, unless they replace them all with entry-level cars or some new segments - but I think future cars will come from cheap-labor markets. (Though the falling dollar might ameliorate that - the question is, are people chasing low costs or following dogma?)

Note that if we look at the cuts the following way, they don’t seem so bad. I’m also expecting a Scrambler pickup, so Dakota might disappear to make room for that. Durango and Aspen might both go away if every dealership has all brands.

This leaves more than the normally stated 30 models, but of course Chally isn’t on sale yet. Your comments on revisions would be appreciated.

Most scary to me is a rumor that more engineers are going to be laid off. What’s the point in flexible manufacturing if they won’t pay for cars to be engineered and built?

Dodge

Chrysler

Jeep

The three-headed dog of Chrysler (updated)

Cerberus has apparently taken its image as the three-headed dog guarding the entrance to Hell (from the demons within) to heart, as they’ve put three different heads in charge of Chrysler.

At the very top is Bob Nardelli, who has taken a bunch of his old pals from GE and Home Depot and installed them in various spots; his past showed a preference for moving production to China, stripping out product and service quality, and slashing prices. So far we’ve seen the first and last of those - prices are being cut by bundling more freebies with the cars, and many parts purchases are indeed moving to China, with India being established as a tertiary engineering base after the U.S. and China. That said, he was also known for yelling at employees and being less than easy to get along with, while at Chrysler he is now known for listening patiently and trusting the opinions of those with experience and knowledge. He’s a tough one to figure out, but his pals seem to have kept their predilections for cheap-labor outsourcing.

The next head is Jim Press, whose tenure at Toyota was marked by hounding the massive Japanese automaker into having a substantial U.S. engineering presence which essentially customized Toyotas for the American market, not unlike the work of the Australians in getting Valiants into shape for the land down under. Press’ efforts, if other writers are accurate, brought us Scion, Lexus, the American version of the Camry, and the Avalon, not to mention the new Tundra, which if nothing else is giving American automakers fits - and that’s before the heavy duty and diesel models appear. It’s hard not to respect Jim Press, and not just because Toyota earned its success in the United States with likable vehicles that generally get better mileage than their peers, generally appear at the top of quality charts, and generally satisfy their customers. He’s just a likable guy - he seems much more natural than the average auto exec, more approachable and more human, less tightly scripted, and far, far, far less arrogant.

Finally, we have Tom LaSorda, who you just have to respect for the way he’s brought manufacturing plant technology ahead of nearly all competitors, while simultaneously going back to the future in plant management. The use of empowered work teams is so counter to anything Detroit has done lately, (aside from Chrysler in the early-to-mid 1990s, of course), and so counter to the Mercedes method of “Men in White,” that you just have to admire him for getting it done.

These are the three men in charge, and there’s bound to be some real, elemental conflict. Press wants quality above all else - quality being defined, presumably, as nothing going wrong for the owners. I think Press would be happy to lose money five years in a row if he could get reliability to where he wants it, knowing that he’d be paid back in profits when Chrysler didn’t need discounts or fancy styling to get customers. He quite probably wants Chrysler to be the default choice, as Honda and Toyota are now.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is Bob Nardelli, who has pretty much proven he likes short-term profits above all else. Perhaps he’s changed now, but we have no evidence of that other than numerous speeches, and I for one don’t believe what people say if I haven’t seen what they do yet.

It’s hard to say where Tom LaSorda, the one guy who actually came from Chrysler, fits into all this. I think he’d probably rather work with Jim Press than Bob Nardelli, but for all I know he was relieved to have someone else take over. Not everyone wants to be highly visible. LaSorda seemed to get along with the Stuttgart crew, and he seems to get along with Cerberus crew. Is he very friendly and flexible, or a yes-man, or just a smart production guy who minds his own store? That’s for those who know him to say.

It’s hard to make all the right moves when you have three heads. Hopefully Chrysler will find some synergy, but at this point it’s probably too early for those of us on the outside to know what’ll happen next.

Killing off Dodge cars

The Wall Street Journal caused a local uproar by printing a rumor that Dodge cars were on the chopping block, leaving Dodge with wagons and SUVs, and Chrysler with cars. That’s an interesting rumor because it corresponds with an old Daimler plan, the one that brought us Magnum and Caliber, but not Intrepid (which finally came as the Charger) or Neon. (Chrysler has, incidentally, fully and vociferously denied it.)

We’re not sure whether this is a serious plan of action or not. If it is, it should be considered proof that the people at Chrysler really have a hard time understanding their jobs, especially with the Challenger buzz, the Charger gaining credibility, and the Caliber not quite the roaring success it was meant to be. It would also be the death knell of any Chrysler upscale aspirations, unless…

Regulars know where I’m going with this, but it would allow Chrysler to carry out the plan of making Dodge essentially a “truck/brute performance” brand - Charger, Challenger, and trucks - which it’s becoming anyway, with the Avenger being ignored by the market and the Caravan actually falling below the Town & Country for the first time ever. The missing piece would take over the everyday cars - Caliber, Avenger, V6-powered LY car - and let Dodge go with the macho routine and Chrysler slowly float upscale, freed of its inherited Plymouths (Town & Country, PT Cruiser, and Sebring sedan).

Chrysler’s actions will, to many people, show its owners’ intent. Drop Dodge cars, and the remaining loyalists can go on to GM with a clear conscience, knowing that Cerberus plans to strip-and-flip or just plain strip. Add Plymouth - not DeSoto, not Hudson, not Azcor, not Zoomie, not Harcker, but Plymouth - and they show that Chrysler does indeed care (for once) about its owners, its heritage, and its future. It would also show that at least one person in the hierarchy actually understands Chrysler’s brand images - and has some grasp of history. Then the remaining loyalists can bring more people into the fold, assuming, of course, that quality continues to rise, and that the product is there - and not something we’re reluctant to invite friends into.

Getting Chrysler back on its feet

Nearly ten years of Daimler ownership have taken their toll on Chrysler. The 2.0 liter engine was allowed to age and be replaced by powerplants that are far too peaky for the average driver; cars were given odd combinations of far-too-expensive and far-too-cheap materials and designs; and, overall, there have been few real winners in the lineup since 1998, the two big exceptions being the current Wrangler and the 2001 PT Cruiser (some throw in the 300C as well, though as a whole the LX does not seem to have sold as well, or made as many profits as, the LH line had.) Now, yet more factories are slated for closure and shifts at surviving factories are being eliminated. What can be, and what is being, done? Or, to be more precise:

1. What can be done within one year to make the lineup work?
2. What needs to be done so the lineup will work in 2011?

These are very different questions. With regard to product alone, I suggest:

Here’s what Chrysler is doing do for #1:
1) Use the GM hybrid in trucks, SUVs, etc.
2) Dodge Journey, otherwise known as the “we’re betting a lot on this thing being popular” truck
3) Higher pressure turbo detuned to 270 hp for Sebring and Avenger to replace the 3.5 V6?
4) Higher quality through empowered teams (see Allpar article)

Here’s what they COULD do for #1:

1) Interior tweaks including better seats.
2) Special editions, etc.
3) Retuning of the World Engine.
4) Light pressure turbo or supercharger for the World Engine to make it more desirable

Here’s what Chrysler IS doing for #2:
1) LY series replacing LX series; possible AMT.
2) Truck aerodynamics and other key elements being reworked.
3) AMT/dual-clutch for minivans!! Gas mileage + performance + smoother operation!
4) Phoenix engines!! Gas mileage + performance!
5) Aerodynamics taking front stage
6) Going back to the early 1990s “involve suppliers early” on interior components; see Allpar articles
7) Higher quality through empowered teams (see Allpar article)
8) Horizon/Omni replacement (from China)
9) Rams with Avalanche style bed storage, new Cummins diesel in 1500
10) Dakota re-engineered as a lifestyle vehicle rather than as the heaviest duty mid-sized pickup; optional Cummins diesel
11) Durango based on lighter next-generation Grand Cherokee

Here’s what they COULD do, which would in my opinion fix the main problems of their bread and butter vehicles (aside from the steps mentioned earlier):

1) Engineer a Neon replacement and PT Cruiser replacement off a heavily modified Caliber platform using a PT-like suspension front and rear to save money and increase space utilization
2) Revisit pre-Daimler LX work; downsize slightly and replace Avenger/Sebring with larger FWD cars (may not be practical)
3) Replace the World Engine either with a more evolved version of the old 2.0/2.4, or with something based off the Hemi or Phoenix engine
4) Extended-wheelbase Commander
5) Scrambler (Wrangler pickup)
6) As the AMT takes over, put the six-speed automatic into cars that had the four-speed automatic

Of course there are more possibilities, and none of us have the warranty information, profitability figures, or other data that the execs have. We don’t know, for example, whether the LX really was more profitable than the LH, though I highly doubt that it could have been. We don’t know what actually customers wanted versus what dealers ordered versus what the factory incentivized into being. There are all sorts of administrative issues that are of key importance, including advertising and marketing, media relations, supplier involvement, quality enhancement, labor issues, production methods, tooling (Toyota drastically cut costs with new stamping presses that allow for lower roofs, less noise, and much lower energy usage, for example), CATIA (where Chrysler has long been a leader), emissions and fuel use, international sale, dealer relations, service capabilities, customer alienation prevention, customer loyalization (BMW excels at that), and more. The list of key issues goes on and on and on.

Fortunately, it’s not just Nardelli calling the shots out there. We hope the team gets it right this time. It’s a very hard job; journalists want one thing, normal buyers want another, and then there are the conflicting demands of Chrysler loyalists, other-brand loyalists (some of whom will never, ever, ever, ever buy a Chrysler, no matter what), and the on-the-fence crowd. There are alienated customers to be re-attracted on a constant basis through customer recovery - something not yet attempted at Chrysler, as far as I know - and there is much to be done before any dealings with a dealer or with the company, particularly the zone reps, convinces buyers that they really should have gotten a Toyota or a Chevrolet or what-have-you. There is Chrysler’s horrific image for quality to be dispensed with, and there is the constant question of Plymouth and an entry-level budget brand which could be more recession-proof than the Dodge, Chrysler, and Jeep brands are. On a higher level there are strategic questions of niche sales vs mass market sales; Chrysler is all but out of the car mass market now, but they could make it back in if their other ducks were in order.

Chrysler has a rough road ahead. I, for one, hope that their recent cost cutting moves were intended to give them some shock absorbers as they move into the future. At least in 2012, the V6 and V8 powertrains should be second to none.

Land Rover: the answer to Chrysler’s problems?

As Ford gets closer to a sale of Jaguar and Land Rover, people have started to talk about how it would be a natural fit for Jeep. This is true, but not for the obvious reasons.

Land Rover has two things Chrysler desperately needs: a good four-cylinder engine, and a small diesel.

The four cylinder gas (petrol) engine is really the big item. Cummins can supply diesels to Chrysler, and their new, very modular design, which will be installed in V8 form in various Dodge trucks and presumably Jeeps, can almost certainly spawn a four cylinder for cars. The Cummins is tough, long-lasting, fuel efficient, and endowed with a name beloved by generations of truck owners. A Chrysler diesel could be laughed at by the news media; a Cummins diesel in a Dodge or Chrysler car, on the other hand, would be formidable indeed. On the other hand, the Land Rover 2.2 liter diesel pumps out a respectable 158 horsepower but has lots of low end torque and the usual diesel good mileage; if Cerberus bought Land Rover, it would presumably be able to build them in a present engine factory, preserving jobs (and postponing retirement benefits) and retaining profits.

The big deal, though, is the gas engine. Chrysler has a lousy four cylinder gas engine now; it went from top of the ranks with the 1994 introduction of the 2.0 to near the bottom with the World Engine, a horrific but buzzword compliant powerplant that, while it makes remarkable power with a turbocharger, is an unrewarding drive without said turbo. The horsepower ratings are great; the driving experience is not, because low end torque is lacking. This engine was foisted upon Chrysler by the overlords of Stuttgart at just the wrong time, as the United States started to value gas mileage and Chrysler increased its drive to take over foreign markets. Just about every review of the Caliber, Compass, or Patriot talks about highlights of the cars, in spite of the engine, which is just about universally disdained.

Land Rover makes four cylinder engines, and an industry insider of note described it as being strong and quite desirable. That is very important.

To deal with the World Engine’s deficiencies, we have been told that there are two choices: either make serious redesigns, or start over. Either might cost billions of dollars, and engines take years to develop, test, and tune properly. Sometimes they turn out surprisingly well, and sometimes they are a disappointment. Buying Land Rover provides a new option: simply use the Land Rover design, retooling the Dundee, Michigan plant to build their existing engine. It would have to be modified, but that would be far less serious than re-engineering the World Engine or creating a whole new powerplant.

That alone could make buying Land Rover worthwhile - just as Ford could justify buying Volvo just in the new Taurus platform. But there’s more.

Sharing with Jeep, Land Rover could make huge profits, because duplication of development costs would be largely eliminated. Jeep could leave markets they are not doing well in; Jeep has pretty much lost its prestige in the luxury 4×4 market, but Land Rover and Range Rover have not. In the United States, Jeep could drop the Grand Cherokee and Commander entirely, and stick with its most desirable vehicles - the hard core Wrangler, the Wrangler Unlimited, the Scrambler pickup, and the Cherokee/Liberty. The basic engineering of the latter could be merged with the equivalent Land Rover for foreign sale, and for an upmarket alternative; while the Range Rover line, with costs dramatically reduced and quality dramatically increased by sharing with Jeep, could be sold in the US, at higher prices. Hummer will always get its “I want to intimidate” buyers, but Range Rover, with some assurance of decent reliability and better appointments and chassis, will be able to get more of its genteel, wealthy, upper-crust buyers.

That would be nice, but that’s not the whole point. The whole point is also to get more people to buy the Journey, Caliber, Sebring, and Avenger, and that will only happen if they have decent engines under the hood. If Land Rover can fix that problem, everything else is gravy - and the Compass can easily disappear, since the capacity will be needed for Calibers and Patriots.

Of course, Cerberus could license an engine design from Fiat or Peugeot, or another company that doesn’t compete in the United States. But with Land Rover, Cerberus could get a massive profit-maker that fits right into their current skills and technologies, with a stellar reputation among those who don’t know any better. It’s a great deal.

Car show, Cerberus

Well, long time no write!

On Sunday I had the opportunity to snap a few pics at a local car show, so I did. There were a couple very interesting cars, but we’ll get to that later.

First off I’ll touch on Chrysler being freed from Daimler’s thumb. Huzzah!! For one brief moment I’d like to just revel in the possibilities, the chance of a newly (and truly) independent Chrysler Corporation, one that’s lean and able to quickly adjust to changing markets, one that has its corporate fingers on the pulse of the markets in which they enter.

Ah, nice.

Unfortunately that’s not yet reality. There’s a lot of harm to reverse, a lot of ground to be retaken. There’s the UAW negotiations, which will be key. There’s the marketing, which needs to be addressed. And of course, there’s the product; opinions of which vary but there’s no doubt much improvement can be had. In no way do I think Chrysler is near out of the woods, but at least now they have every chance to start moving in the right direction.

On to the metal:

Here’s a nice 1951 DeSoto. I don’t see these often at shows, and this one is in nice shape.

Moving up 10 years, and one of the stars of the show, a 1961 300G!

This is a beauty. That’s a 10 year old paint job, and it looks showroom.

IP shot, featuring the ’swivel seats’ that were a Chrysler exclusive.

The rear of the car. Hmm, something about those switches on the center console….

Power window switches! I never knew about that. Our PT’s have a link to this car, how cool!

One more car to show, one I’ve never seen in person before:

Viper GTS ACR!

Had to get a nice shot of the graphics.

Viper interior.

And wrapping it up with the mighty V10!

Hope you enjoyed….