What will stay and what will go?

This is just my opinion based on current reports. There might be more new vehicles to replace the ones I’m counting as living. My guess is that the Caliber, Patriot, and Compass might all be dropped and Belvedere closed when the China-cars come online, unless they replace them all with entry-level cars or some new segments - but I think future cars will come from cheap-labor markets. (Though the falling dollar might ameliorate that - the question is, are people chasing low costs or following dogma?)

Note that if we look at the cuts the following way, they don’t seem so bad. I’m also expecting a Scrambler pickup, so Dakota might disappear to make room for that. Durango and Aspen might both go away if every dealership has all brands.

This leaves more than the normally stated 30 models, but of course Chally isn’t on sale yet. Your comments on revisions would be appreciated.

Most scary to me is a rumor that more engineers are going to be laid off. What’s the point in flexible manufacturing if they won’t pay for cars to be engineered and built?

Dodge

Chrysler

Jeep

Chrysler Easter eggs

Three people have now written in to say that this 2009 Dodge Ram, taken from the Mopar site, is “for real.” (See our full story with more photos and details including the higher-power Hemis.)

But this is not a story about the Dodge Ram. It’s about incentives, Easter eggs, and Jason Vines.

By now you may know that Jason Vines resigned; buried in the story of his resignation, and not even mentioned by the internal Scoop, was Mike Aberlich’s retirement. One wonders if there’s a connection between at least the Vines story and the Ram photo.

Until recently, news was released in a traditional fashion by Chrysler. Major outlets and privileged reports got advance notice of big releases, letting them take the time to edit carefully (or not), with the inevitable leaks at times - one of the glossy magazines was photographed taking photos of the Dodge Challenger, unleashing that prototype months before the planned deluge.

Then, in what may have been an over-reaction to a photo prematurely released on a South American message board - a release that was somehow blamed by some on Allpar, even though we were about the last to post it, waiting for it to appear on Autoblog, Jalopnik, and other sources - last December. At that time, Allpar had the press materials for the January auto show, ready and waiting for posting; and as each car was leaked, we posted the information that was leaked, following the traditional “once it’s out, it’s out” logic. We did not like this system; it’s much easier to set articles to automagically appear exactly at the end of the embargo period than to suddenly have to post right away to avoid being the last one out with the news.

Allpar, by the way, has NEVER broken an embargo. We have, however, released information that was given to us by people outside the company - spy shots, rumors, etc. When given embargos, we honor them. When not given an embargo, we post.

Moving on, there was a lot of talk about the best way to handle this. Most companies would be clever and have a different version of a news story, maybe saying that a gear ratio was 3.91 to one person, 3.92 to another, etc., until the source was uncovered. Instead, Chrysler instituted an Easter egg hunt. News suddenly started to arrive without warning, showing up on any site they felt like posting on. Sometimes it was the Firehouse, sometimes it was the actual news page, then it was the corporate news page on the public site, then there was the internal Scoop. Suddenly we had to be looking at four or five different places at once, never knowing where the next big story would appear. Last week I thought Autoblog had gotten an exclusive on Challenger pricing, but it turned out they just saw a press release where we hadn’t looked recently.

It’s been nutty, and the only rationale I can think of for this, other than possibly having a deep-seated resentment of journalists and/or bloggers and/or enthusiast sites, is that someone might be getting bonuses or performance appraisals based on hits to their web site complex. If you know you’ll be rewarded for hits to chrysler.com, you release stuff there now and then, and hordes of people will have to check to see if anything’s changed. Nasty for the server guys who have to deal with the extra load for no good business reason, but nice for your personal metrics. If, that is, anyone is being judged based on this metric. I do recall that, when the PR people were trying to justify the most recent inane Buy German campaign, they used hits to the askdrz.com site as a public metric to show that the ads were successful. At the same time, they made darned sure they’d see a huge number of hits by making that site the only avenue for electronic communications with Chrysler (by customers and prospects, that is), and by launching a massive Web ad campaign that paid for hits to askdrz.com.

Of course, it’s possible that this jaundiced view is unmerited. That’s what happens when you take training in organizational psychology and apply it to seemingly unrelated facts. But let’s just say that Mr. Vines was being judged, one way or another, on hits to various web sites. What better way to get hits into the mopar.com site than by planting an Easter egg there? And what would you do if you were his boss and discovered this?

Then again, maybe he got a job offer somewhere else, or decided to jump off the sinking ship when he saw product or marketing plans. Maybe these seemingly unrelated issues really were unrelated. And I haven’t figured out where Mike Aberlich fits in, except that perhaps he, too, is tired of Chrysler being a basket case, after being the hottest automaker in the word a short ten years ago.

Killing off Dodge cars

The Wall Street Journal caused a local uproar by printing a rumor that Dodge cars were on the chopping block, leaving Dodge with wagons and SUVs, and Chrysler with cars. That’s an interesting rumor because it corresponds with an old Daimler plan, the one that brought us Magnum and Caliber, but not Intrepid (which finally came as the Charger) or Neon. (Chrysler has, incidentally, fully and vociferously denied it.)

We’re not sure whether this is a serious plan of action or not. If it is, it should be considered proof that the people at Chrysler really have a hard time understanding their jobs, especially with the Challenger buzz, the Charger gaining credibility, and the Caliber not quite the roaring success it was meant to be. It would also be the death knell of any Chrysler upscale aspirations, unless…

Regulars know where I’m going with this, but it would allow Chrysler to carry out the plan of making Dodge essentially a “truck/brute performance” brand - Charger, Challenger, and trucks - which it’s becoming anyway, with the Avenger being ignored by the market and the Caravan actually falling below the Town & Country for the first time ever. The missing piece would take over the everyday cars - Caliber, Avenger, V6-powered LY car - and let Dodge go with the macho routine and Chrysler slowly float upscale, freed of its inherited Plymouths (Town & Country, PT Cruiser, and Sebring sedan).

Chrysler’s actions will, to many people, show its owners’ intent. Drop Dodge cars, and the remaining loyalists can go on to GM with a clear conscience, knowing that Cerberus plans to strip-and-flip or just plain strip. Add Plymouth - not DeSoto, not Hudson, not Azcor, not Zoomie, not Harcker, but Plymouth - and they show that Chrysler does indeed care (for once) about its owners, its heritage, and its future. It would also show that at least one person in the hierarchy actually understands Chrysler’s brand images - and has some grasp of history. Then the remaining loyalists can bring more people into the fold, assuming, of course, that quality continues to rise, and that the product is there - and not something we’re reluctant to invite friends into.

Getting Chrysler back on its feet

Nearly ten years of Daimler ownership have taken their toll on Chrysler. The 2.0 liter engine was allowed to age and be replaced by powerplants that are far too peaky for the average driver; cars were given odd combinations of far-too-expensive and far-too-cheap materials and designs; and, overall, there have been few real winners in the lineup since 1998, the two big exceptions being the current Wrangler and the 2001 PT Cruiser (some throw in the 300C as well, though as a whole the LX does not seem to have sold as well, or made as many profits as, the LH line had.) Now, yet more factories are slated for closure and shifts at surviving factories are being eliminated. What can be, and what is being, done? Or, to be more precise:

1. What can be done within one year to make the lineup work?
2. What needs to be done so the lineup will work in 2011?

These are very different questions. With regard to product alone, I suggest:

Here’s what Chrysler is doing do for #1:
1) Use the GM hybrid in trucks, SUVs, etc.
2) Dodge Journey, otherwise known as the “we’re betting a lot on this thing being popular” truck
3) Higher pressure turbo detuned to 270 hp for Sebring and Avenger to replace the 3.5 V6?
4) Higher quality through empowered teams (see Allpar article)

Here’s what they COULD do for #1:

1) Interior tweaks including better seats.
2) Special editions, etc.
3) Retuning of the World Engine.
4) Light pressure turbo or supercharger for the World Engine to make it more desirable

Here’s what Chrysler IS doing for #2:
1) LY series replacing LX series; possible AMT.
2) Truck aerodynamics and other key elements being reworked.
3) AMT/dual-clutch for minivans!! Gas mileage + performance + smoother operation!
4) Phoenix engines!! Gas mileage + performance!
5) Aerodynamics taking front stage
6) Going back to the early 1990s “involve suppliers early” on interior components; see Allpar articles
7) Higher quality through empowered teams (see Allpar article)
8) Horizon/Omni replacement (from China)
9) Rams with Avalanche style bed storage, new Cummins diesel in 1500
10) Dakota re-engineered as a lifestyle vehicle rather than as the heaviest duty mid-sized pickup; optional Cummins diesel
11) Durango based on lighter next-generation Grand Cherokee

Here’s what they COULD do, which would in my opinion fix the main problems of their bread and butter vehicles (aside from the steps mentioned earlier):

1) Engineer a Neon replacement and PT Cruiser replacement off a heavily modified Caliber platform using a PT-like suspension front and rear to save money and increase space utilization
2) Revisit pre-Daimler LX work; downsize slightly and replace Avenger/Sebring with larger FWD cars (may not be practical)
3) Replace the World Engine either with a more evolved version of the old 2.0/2.4, or with something based off the Hemi or Phoenix engine
4) Extended-wheelbase Commander
5) Scrambler (Wrangler pickup)
6) As the AMT takes over, put the six-speed automatic into cars that had the four-speed automatic

Of course there are more possibilities, and none of us have the warranty information, profitability figures, or other data that the execs have. We don’t know, for example, whether the LX really was more profitable than the LH, though I highly doubt that it could have been. We don’t know what actually customers wanted versus what dealers ordered versus what the factory incentivized into being. There are all sorts of administrative issues that are of key importance, including advertising and marketing, media relations, supplier involvement, quality enhancement, labor issues, production methods, tooling (Toyota drastically cut costs with new stamping presses that allow for lower roofs, less noise, and much lower energy usage, for example), CATIA (where Chrysler has long been a leader), emissions and fuel use, international sale, dealer relations, service capabilities, customer alienation prevention, customer loyalization (BMW excels at that), and more. The list of key issues goes on and on and on.

Fortunately, it’s not just Nardelli calling the shots out there. We hope the team gets it right this time. It’s a very hard job; journalists want one thing, normal buyers want another, and then there are the conflicting demands of Chrysler loyalists, other-brand loyalists (some of whom will never, ever, ever, ever buy a Chrysler, no matter what), and the on-the-fence crowd. There are alienated customers to be re-attracted on a constant basis through customer recovery - something not yet attempted at Chrysler, as far as I know - and there is much to be done before any dealings with a dealer or with the company, particularly the zone reps, convinces buyers that they really should have gotten a Toyota or a Chevrolet or what-have-you. There is Chrysler’s horrific image for quality to be dispensed with, and there is the constant question of Plymouth and an entry-level budget brand which could be more recession-proof than the Dodge, Chrysler, and Jeep brands are. On a higher level there are strategic questions of niche sales vs mass market sales; Chrysler is all but out of the car mass market now, but they could make it back in if their other ducks were in order.

Chrysler has a rough road ahead. I, for one, hope that their recent cost cutting moves were intended to give them some shock absorbers as they move into the future. At least in 2012, the V6 and V8 powertrains should be second to none.

It’s time for a real Caravan Cargo Van

Chrysler is again missing some important sales opportunities here. The cargo van page notes that “the rear hatch and dual sliding doors ease loading and unloading.” Dual sliding doors, yes, rear hatch, very definitely no.

For a commercial vehicle, hatches do not work. For most courier, messenger, and delivery work, hatches are slow, hard to use, and get in the way. Try to load a small skid with a fork lift, or use a courier loading dock without banging your head on the hatch.

I did this work for 10 years, much of that time as a supervisor of 25 messenger routes. Back in the 1980s and 1990s, side-opening rear doors were available on Caravans though they were advertised so poorly that many Dodge truck salesmen did not know they existed.

This could be a hot item. Vans are more versatile than pick-ups for this work. And, yes, there are full-size cargo vans available. But back when Chevrolet sold Astro vans, they were very popular in the delivery business, (while neither the Ford Aerostar nor the FWD vans could make any kind of inraod). They were cheaper to buy, much more maneuverable around town, saved on fuel, and had normal rear doors. All these items are even more important today, but there is no small van available for this use due to the lack of proper rear doors.

Whatever the new commercial Caravan sales will be, they could be increased probably 50 - 75% with a pair of side-hinged doors on the rear if they were properly advertised to the trades.

(Dave from Allpar added: What’s more, many tradesmen build shelves and other storage units inside their vans. If Chrysler provided accessible floor and roof mounting points and made optional interior-window-blocks, it would also greatly expand the usefulness of these vehicles.)

Being Patriotic instead of high-Caliber

When the Dodge Caliber came out, it had its share of criticism, because it was largely framed as a replacement for the Neon. The original Neon - the one that came out in 1994 - was a hard act to follow, and it must be said that the second-generation Neon didn’t really live up to it, at least not relative to competitors. The original Neon had a standard 132 horsepower engine, while the next best in class had 125 hp as an option in the most expensive price class - and the Neon had 129 lb-ft of torque, while that 125 hp engine (in the Civic in case you were wondering) topped out at 100 lb-ft. The Neon was as big as anything in its class, cornered better than most or all contenders, got reasonably good gas mileage, and outraced most of its peers, if you got the stick-shift. That stick was nicely done, too - it wasn’t a bear. No surprise, then, that the Neon swept through its SCCA class. Sales were good the first year but some less than wise decisions led to a poor reputation for reliability, and it slowly sank. The second generation suffered from leaders who did not seem to understand the attraction; and the SRT-4 took far, far too long to come up.

Still, the second generation Neon was pretty good, with capable cornering, a large interior, pretty good mileage (from the stick), and good acceleration (from the stick). Then came the Caliber, and it felt far slower, posted much slower sprint times, didn’t corner with the same confidence, and didn’t seem to offer much more other than some gimmicks and a bigger look.

The main problem with the Caliber, above all else, is that inevitable comparison to the Neon. How could they have gotten it so wrong? asked a number of people.

Let’s think about this the other way. The Jeep Patriot is not a spinoff of the Caliber as much as the Caliber is a spinoff of the Patriot. The Caliber was designed with the idea of making a small-SUV variant from the start, as far as we can tell from public statements. If we assume that the Patriot is the real reason for the Caliber’s existence, then everything makes more sense. It’s like building a sedan from the PT Cruiser; it wouldn’t be as sporty or as lightweight as a sedan built to be a sedan, at least not if it was done in a rush and on a nasty budget with people from Stuttgart berating the engineers.

The Patriot is, by most measures, a success. It takes the Jeep look and miniaturizes it without seeming foolish; it can actually handle off-roading; and it gets surprisingly good mileage for a Jeep. The Patriot is the realization of an idea first started decades ago, a small, lightweight Jeep that feels perfectly fine as an on-road commuter or family car, and doesn’t cost as much as a Wrangler in terms of inconvenience, purchase price, fuel usage, or replacement tires.

Now, if the Patriot had come first, and the Caliber later, the Neon comparisons would never have come up, and the Caliber would probably have only been compared with various SUVs, where the competition for performance and economy isn’t quite as bad. It still would not be a standout, but it would be able to finish closer to the upper middle of the pack.

It’s worth a thought, or at least a bad pun.