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Civil COVID-19 Discussion

Discussion in 'Off Topic But Still Civil' started by Ryan, Apr 23, 2020.

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  1. Zagnut27

    Zagnut27 Jeepaholic

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    I’m curious as to why Wound Management & Prevention is saying that Covid can be transmitted via an open wound. To date, everything I’ve seen is that it is not transmitted this way and there are no documented cases of it being transmitted this way. One would be more likely to contract a blood-borne viral infection (HIV or Hepatitis), or a bacterial infection that way. Respiratory viruses do not usually have the ability to be transmitted that way.
     
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  2. wolfsblood07

    wolfsblood07 Active Member

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    Does anybody think we would be any worse off if our response to the virus has been: Limit international flights, close the border to all travelers, and nothing else. Keep sports going, keep schools open, no lockdowns. Tell people to he careful. Let everyone catch it who is going to catch it. Hospitalize only the worst cases. Get it over with as quickly as possible and carry on. Who knows for sure?
     
  3. Zagnut27

    Zagnut27 Jeepaholic

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    We would absolutely be worse off. We didn’t have enough PPE in the beginning, and we barely have enough now despite months of lockdown, precautions, and ramping up production of PPE. Adding even more patients to the load would’ve overwhelmed our supply, putting even more healthcare workers at risk. Lose us, and more people would die who might not have otherwise because there wouldn’t be enough of us to take care of them. The ventilator supply would not have been enough. The reserve capacity for hospital beds would’ve been used up.

    And it’s not just PPE and ventilators, we’d be running out of medications as well. Remdesivir has been shown to be somewhat effective, and Dexamethasone has been shown to be promising as well. There are a few others that show promise, but nothing has been overwhelmingly successful. And many of those drugs, especially Remdesivir, are in short supply. Adding a higher patient load would quickly exhaust those supplies.

    Hospitalize the worst cases? That’s what we’ve been doing. Those that can be managed at home, have been at home. Those requiring increased O2 and supportive care have been in the hospital.

    Our numbers of dead from this have been high. The numbers of hospitalized have been even higher, and many of those will have long term effects from this. This is much worse than the usual seasonal influenza. As someone who has treated all kinds of viral illnesses, I can say easily that there is simply no comparison with how sick this can make even otherwise healthy individuals...and we’re not even sure why. And the often unpredictable sudden respiratory failure many of these patients suffer when they were seemingly getting better.

    The precautions work. There is evidence to support them. Not following guidelines and not taking precautions does not work, as evidenced by the numbers of cases and hospitalizations going up.

    We’ve had close to 130k deaths DESPITE the lockdown and precautions. The number would be much higher without those things.

    I can’t believe we’re still debating this.
     
    #803 Zagnut27, Jul 5, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2020
  4. wolfsblood07

    wolfsblood07 Active Member

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    The debate will go on for decades!
    One reason I ask the question is because we might be heading in that direction anyway, with or without lockdowns.
     
  5. Zagnut27

    Zagnut27 Jeepaholic

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    We slowed the spread and flattened the curve because of the lockdown and precautions. We’re failing now because states opened too soon, and because many people are not practicing social distancing and not wearing masks. Having a President who undermines those efforts has not helped.

    And, yes, we are headed that way again. And in talking with healthcare workers around the country, many of my colleagues are not sure if they can go through that again. It exacted a heavy toll on those of us who were on the front lines of the initial surge. I’ve never seen anything like it before.
     
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  6. Mopar International

    Mopar International Active Member

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  7. chuzz

    chuzz Well-Known Member

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    I'm in 100% agreement with Zagnut. I have friends that work in the health care field and they all say this stuff scares the hell out of them. One of them is a retired nurse that was asked to come back. She said "Thanks, but not thanks." She has multiple health issues of her own and it extremely scared of the Covid19 virus. She says she can't imagine a more horrible way to die than have your lungs glue themselves together and suffocate. I'm with her, I'd rather have a bullet.
     
  8. Bob Lincoln

    Bob Lincoln "CHECK FAULT CODES"
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    In MA, they report daily on new cases, deaths, percent of new cases that test positive, number of hospital beds taken by covid patients, and number of ICU beds taken by covid patients. This tells you what you need to know about it being under control. And they're doing a great job here. Percent testing positive has been under 2% for more than a week. Hospitalizations are down from over 900 in May to something like 150 now.
    Other states are terrible. My brother in FL is in total denial, tries to manipulate figures to claim it's under control. But the fact is that positive tests in several of these states has risen to over 15%. And MA has done more testing than most states per capita, so you can't say it's because of increased testing.
    As a country, we have failed badly at this, primarily because of late response with effective techniques, and reluctance/refusal to wear masks and do what's needed for as long as needed. As long as we have a piecemeal approach rather than nationwide, this thing will continue to spread.
     
  9. Zagnut27

    Zagnut27 Jeepaholic

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    Epidemiologists, virologists, infectious disease specialists, emergency care specialists, critical care specialists, public heath specialists, etc are ALL saying this is a very dangerous virus that can make lots of people very sick, very quickly. RN’s and RT’s (and other healthcare workers) who have worked on the front lines in the hardest hit areas will tell you the same. The people that know this virus the best, and have been up close and personal with it are ALL saying the same things, and we have evidence and research to back up all of it.

    Those who have little or no experience with it, professionally or otherwise, have no idea what they’re talking about...and it shows. Just internet noise. Listen to the experts...the people with the educational and professional backgrounds and have been doing this type of work for their entire lives. They’re not BS artists. They don’t scare easily. If they are telling you it’s serious, it’s because it is.

    I know no matter what we say, there’s a good portion of our population that won’t take it seriously despite having no logical, or fact based rationale for that. To them, good luck with that.
     
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  10. dana44

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    At the same time I don't think we are getting the whole picture of the pandemic. Statistics from roughly a month ago indicated it was mostly people over the age of 65 or other major underlying conditions accounting for more than half the deaths, now the shift has gone to 25-45years of age and a whole lot less actually having to use ventilators for treatment. Here in San Diego they do a daily update on actual demographics and yes, it sounds pretty scary that 300-400 new cases have been reported day to day, and then they report that three people had to be hospitalized and one to five a day are dying. And when the age of the death is reported it is still in the 65+ age group, or some other underlying condition. Thing is, with a reported number of new cases reported, I would like to know how many of them need to be hospitalized and how many of them need serious care to fight Covid. I guess it makes it sound more serious when "new cases today" is reported, and deflates its seriousness when you are given the fact only 2 to 5 percent of them have to be hospitalized (but that's just me).

    We really didn't shut the country down completely, grocery stores, gas stations, bus routes, essential services were still open and there have been little to no big hotspots associated with them operating, which may or may not be justification for remaining open, or reason to close. Wearing a mask probably does the most good, but not covering your nose doesn't do the person any good, just prevents everyone else from seeing you are sticking their tongue out at you.
     
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  11. Zagnut27

    Zagnut27 Jeepaholic

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    The problem with those stats is that those numbers are cumulative. 2-5% may need to be hospitalized out of 300-400 cases per day, but those people requiring hospitalization will spend up to 2 weeks (in some cases longer) in the hospital. The longer someone stays in the hospital, the fewer other patients can be admitted (all causes). Some patients will end up on a ventilator for 2 weeks...so for 2 weeks, that vent can’t be used for anyone else. And the more patients that are admitted each day, the more beds are in use, and the more resources. These patients eat up a lot of resources...medications, PPE, supportive equipment, staff, etc. And they’re not the only patients who require critical care beds. There are still patients coming in with MI’s, surgical procedures, cardiac arrests, organ failure, other infectious processes, etc. Communities don’t typically have a lot of excess capacity in critical care beds to handle even modest increases in critical care patients.

    And these aren’t like the usual critical care patients. You have to be meticulous with donning and doffing your PPE to avoid exposing yourself. Because we work in such close proximity to the sickest of the sick, we get a much higher viral exposure which can contribute to a more severe illness.

    Look at cities in Texas right now. Several are already at capacity for critical care beds. And those are some of the biggest hospital systems in the country. It’s easy to get overwhelmed, despite being able to transfer patients around within a health system, or with other city hospitals.
     
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  12. patfromigh

    patfromigh Well-Known Member

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    I now have Bell's Palsy. This is just like herpes, a gift that keeps on giving. Oh, there's no official proof that Covid-19 and BP are connected. The people who should be draining the swamp are up to their arses in alligators. Nobody has any time to investigate such matters. All I know is that some mystery illness which went through the senior apartments a few months ago is now followed by a sudden rise in Bell's Palsy.

    To those young people who were having "Covid parties", let me say something. I'm old and collect social security. I can afford to miss a day at work. I have already had a lifetime partner. Also people are less choosy about looks at my age. Many of us have already faced disfiguring illnesses and disabilities. We older folks will get by with having BP.

    Youth is a gift, but it can be quickly lost.
     
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  13. 06PTElectricBlue

    06PTElectricBlue Active Member

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    Probably coming to more cities in the not too distant future, but Austin and Houston want to go back into lockdown ;)

    [​IMG]

    HOUSTON - More Texas mayors and county judges want the power to activate stay-at-home orders as coronavirus cases continue to surge.

    The state reported its highest daily number of new cases Saturday with more than 8,200 cases. Sunday it added another 3,400 cases to that total.

    In hard-hit Harris County, which includes Houston, beds in intensive care units are at 80% capacity.

    Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner said he’s worried.

    "I will tell you, a month ago one in 10 people were testing positive. Today, it's one in four. The number of people who are getting sick and going to the hospitals has exponentially increased. The number of people in our ICU beds has exponentially increased. In fact, if we don't get our hands around this virus quickly, in about two weeks our hospital system could be in serious, serious trouble,” he said.

    Gov. Greg Abbott put a mask order in place for most of the state.

    The Harris County judge and the mayor of Austin say it’s not enough. They want stay-at-home orders allowed at the local level to slow the spread of COVID-19.

    “We are on a trajectory right now that we could be inundating our intensive care units here within the next week to 10 days. We are watching the numbers on a daily basis. We may have to take more drastic action,” Austin Mayor Steve Adler said.

    "What we're seeing is that wishful thinking is neither good economic policy or good public health policy. We had initially this increase back in March I had the authority to issue a stay-home order and I did quickly early,” said Harris County Judge Lina Hildago. “Now all I can say is recommend, ask that the community stay home which of course is not as effective and I don't think appropriate at the level of crisis we're facing right now.”

    In addition to the mask order that carries a $250 fine, Abbott has paused the state’s phased reopening.

    He said closing down he economy again will be his last option.

    In the past, he has resisted calls to allow stay-at-home orders at the local level. He said Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins wanted to force poverty on people when Jenkins made a similar request in late June.

    COVID-19 cases across the state have increased at an alarming rate since Memorial Day.

    Doctors, city and county leaders in the state’s largest cities are waiting to see if there will be another surge following the July 4th holiday.

    Houston & Austin-area leaders ask for stay-at-home order (at https://www.fox4news.com/news/houston-austin-area-leaders-ask-for-stay-at-home-order )
     
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  14. Zagnut27

    Zagnut27 Jeepaholic

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    Just some food for thought. The older you are, the higher your risk. The over 65 age group is 40.3 million people, and 13% of our population. The next highest age group, 45-64 is 81.5 million people and 26.4% of our population. Adding in younger people who have comorbidities that make them vulnerable, and that’s a heck of a lot of people in this country who are at high risk. Not to mention that anyone in any age group has the potential to have a severe reaction...there are deaths in every age group, even those who were otherwise young and healthy. Yes, there is less risk for the young...but there is still risk.
     
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  15. 06PTElectricBlue

    06PTElectricBlue Active Member

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    Dr. Fauci recently said this:

    Dr. Anthony Fauci says the average age of U.S. coronavirus patients has dropped by 15 years as Sun Belt states gets hit

    [​IMG]
    The average age of new coronavirus patients has dropped by roughly 15 years compared with only a few months ago as the virus reignites in America’s Sun Belt, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Monday.

    Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during a Q&A discussion with Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, that the resurgence of cases in the U.S. is an extension of the outbreak first reported earlier this year, not a second wave.

    “It’s a serious situation that we have to address immediately,” he said.

    The U.S. has continued to push further beyond what some previously thought was its peak earlier this year, reporting thousands of new cases each day. States like Florida and Texas have recently reported daily infections in the thousands and growing hospitalizations.

    Cases surged after some states rushed to reopen their economies in May. Many have since walked back their reopenings, reclosing bars and indoor dining at restaurants as many young people disregarded social distancing and face mask recommendations, officials say.

    “The average age of people getting infected now is a decade and a half younger than it was a few months ago particularly when New York and New Orleans and Chicago were getting hit very badly,” Fauci said.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said the median age of new Covid-19 patients in his state, which reported a record number of new cases over the holiday weekend, has reached a low of 33. By comparison, the median age of a newly diagnosed coronavirus patient in their 50s and 60s in March and April, he said at a news conference Monday.

    “Now why is that important? Well, because this is a virus that does not affect all age groups equally. It’s much more lethal for people who are in their 80s and 90s than it is in your 20s and 30s,” DeSantis said.

    The fatality rate is significantly lower among Gen Y and millennials, he said adding that many of those cases are asymptomatic. “Just because you’re 21 and you may not have significant symptoms that does not mean you can’t affect other people and I think that’s something that we’re concerned about,” he said.

    While young people are less likely to develop serious illnesses from Covid-19, Fauci warned that the virus could still “put them out of action for weeks at a time.”

    They should also remember that when they’re infected, there’s the likelihood that they could spread the disease to people who are at high risk of serious illness, he said.

    “They could infect someone who infects someone, and then all of a sudden someone’s grandmother, grandfather or aunt who’s getting chemotherapy for breast cancer gets infected,” Fauci said. “You’re part of the propagation of the pandemic, so it’s your responsibility to yourself as well as to society to avoid infection.”

    Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, has previously warned that the virus poses a greater risk to those with underlying health conditions, such as diabetes and significant obesity, which are seen in every age group.

    “We do know that we have people in the younger age groups with significant Type 1 diabetes and may also have individuals with significant obesity,” Birx said at a White House task force news conference on June 26. “We know that those are risk factors, so risk factors go with your comorbidity, not necessarily with your age.”

    Dr. Anthony Fauci says the average age of U.S. coronavirus patients has dropped by 15 years as Sun Belt states gets hit (at https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/dr-anthony-fauci-says-the-average-age-of-us-coronavirus-patients-has-dropped-by-15-years-as-sun-belt-states-gets-hit.html )
     
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  16. chuzz

    chuzz Well-Known Member

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    I think Anthony Fauci is a man we all need to listen to. Look at how long he's been a doctor and his experience. He's kind of been pushed aside and towards the rear because he keeps warning and telling the public the truth and the powers that be don't like that. Rather than fire him, they choose to overlook and ignore him. Believe it when he says this winter is going to be devastating. I trust the guy and am listening to his advice. Mask up, keep your distance and wash your hands, my friends. I'd sure hate to know that anyone here gets this stuff and doesn't make it. I consider my allpar associates family.
     
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  17. 06PTElectricBlue

    06PTElectricBlue Active Member

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    On last nights news, they reported that the virus can travel further than originally guesstimated o_O

    [​IMG]

    Also, that the particles can be carried even further in outdoors with a mild breeze.

    They also predicted that the air ventilation systems in public places will need to be redesigned or in some way modified to prevent the virus from being recirculated in those places.

    In other words, this s**t will find you wherever you are :eek:
     
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  18. wolfsblood07

    wolfsblood07 Active Member

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    Never in history have humans defeated a virus by hiding from it. And we never will. The lockdowns are over. We are slowly getting back to normal.
     
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  19. 06PTElectricBlue

    06PTElectricBlue Active Member

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    The latest prediction:

    Coronavirus Deaths to Reach Nearly 210,000 by November, Model Projects

    NEW MODELING PROJECTS that the coronavirus death toll in the U.S. will exceed 200,000 by November, but more than 45,000 lives could be saved if the vast majority of people wore masks in public.

    The U.S. will see roughly 78,000 more coronavirus deaths from now until Nov. 1, bringing the death toll to 208,000, according to projections based on a respected model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The current death toll sits at 131,000.

    https://www.usnews.com/news/nationa...ach-nearly-210-000-by-november-model-projects
     
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  20. 06PTElectricBlue

    06PTElectricBlue Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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