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FCAU shares - rumors, information and opinion.

Discussion in 'Fiat News & Rumors' started by leo gali, Nov 18, 2014.

  1. leo gali

    leo gali Active Member

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    Since 10-13-2014 shares are listed on the NYSE in $ and on the Milan stock exchange, Borsa Italiana, in Euro.

    Time to group all the rumors and info together, here goes:


    Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV added 1.01% to trade at €9.98 per share as of 14:20 GMT, marking a one-year gain of 73.03%. According to the Financial Times, the 20 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV have a median target of €10.40, with a high estimate of €13.30 and a low estimate of €5.00. The median estimate represents a 5.32% increase from the last price of €9.88. (link)
    Nice to see Morgan Stanley is a fan:

    Morgan Stanley restated their top pick rating on shares of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NASDAQ:FCAU) in a research note issued to investors on Thursday (11-13-2014).
    (link)
    even the Motley Fool is positive, on 11-17-2014:

    The road ahead.
    Before spinning off Ferrari, Fiat Chrysler is collecting another 2.25 billion euros in cash from the supercar maker to add to its capital-raising plans. Because Fiat Chrysler will be needing far more cash during the next five years than Ferrari, the move makes sense overall in terms of reducing Fiat Chrysler's cost of capital. The market reacted accordingly, by pushing shares up around 5% on the day of the announcement.

    Although its expansion plan is ambitious and adds additional risk to the automaker, I am bullish on Fiat Chrysler, and will continue to closely follow the automaker as it works to execute its five-year plan.​
     
    #1 leo gali, Nov 18, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 6, 2016
    BASONE88 and Medicin-Man like this.
  2. leo gali

    leo gali Active Member

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    there seemed to have been a ceiling around $12.80, there was a lot of selling right down to $12.23 and now we are on the way up again, thanks to some good interest in FCAU.

    here is some more info:


    "Shares of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE:FCAU) witnessed hefty buying and the price closed up 2.61% at $12.58. There was no let up in intensity from the bulls and the price headed north amid a strong volume of 1,125,679 shares. The opening commenced on a calm note with the first trade at $12.6 but the buying pressure soon took the shares to an intraday high of $12.63. However, the traders and investors booked some profits at the higher levels. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE:FCAU) has a 52-week high of $12.85 and a 52-week low of $7.2. The company has a market cap of $20,489 million." (link)
     
  3. RVC

    RVC Active Member

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    I'm betting with my wallet that it'll punch through that ceiling in the near future.
     
  4. leo gali

    leo gali Active Member

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    well, you can not keep a good wallet man down. i am with you on this one and i agree the real ceiling is somewhere much higher.

    clear bit of neutral news from Reuters 11-26-2014:


    "FCA had net debt of 11.37 billion euros at end-September. The company added in the filing that the final impact on its debt could "differ materially" from the projected amount given potential changes to its own and Ferrari's debt at the time the spin-off occurs....​


    after the roadshow, it will be good to see at which level of debt we arrive by the end of the year.
    i think if the reaction of the financial world is positive, that Marchionne and Elkann will take Ferrari out from FCA in a different manner, later than planned, less debt, less payment.
    they will play their cards, to gain max, as usual.
     
    #4 leo gali, Nov 27, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 6, 2016
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  5. leo gali

    leo gali Active Member

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    this made me smile:

    Fiat Chrysler rose as much as 2.7 percent to $13.58, the highest intraday figure since the stock’s mid-October debut, and was trading up 2.3 percent at 10 a.m. in New York, valuing the company at $16.5 billion.

    The Italian-traded shares have gained about 57 percent since the dual listing started in Milan and New York,
    the best performance on the 44-company Bloomberg Global Automobile Index. (link to article)
    some more good reading:

    http://www.wallstreet.org/2014/12/fiat-chrysler-nysefcau-automobile-meets-us-investors/146361.html

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014...omobiles-capitalraising-idUSL3N0TO5QC20141205

    http://www.bloomberg.com/article/2014-12-04/aRf_80pYOAxw.html
     
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  6. sebring96hbg

    sebring96hbg Well-Known Member

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    I picked up some more shares at its low point this morning.
     
    leo gali likes this.
  7. leo gali

    leo gali Active Member

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    for those who are interested:

    FCA US will host a webcast and analyst conference call to review and discuss full-year and fourth-quarter 2014 financial results on
    Feb. 3, 2015, at 11:30 a.m. ET/ 4:30 p.m. UK/ 5:30 p.m. CET.
    The call will include a presentation followed by a brief question-and-answer session.

    Feb. 3 webcast access:
    Live webcast: http://www.fcausllc.com/Investor/Pages/Overview.aspx
    Conference call dial-in: Participants (U.S.): +1 (877) 303-3150
    Participants (International): +1 (315) 625-3227

    The presentation will be available in the Investor Relations section at http://www.fcausllc.com prior to the conference call.

    A replay of the webcast will be available at the same location approximately 90 minutes after the call.
     
  8. leo gali

    leo gali Active Member

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    Roberto Pedone gave the latest:

    Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) designs, engineers, manufactures, distributes and sells vehicles and components and production systems. This stock is trading up 4.6% at $13.49 in Monday's trading session.

    Monday 01/26/2015 Volume: 5.66 million
    Three-Month Average Volume: 7.76 million
    Volume % Change: 136%


    From a technical perspective, FCAU is ripping sharply higher here with decent upside volume flows.

    ...

    Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $16 to $17, or even $18.
     
    #8 leo gali, Jan 26, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 6, 2016
  9. leo gali

    leo gali Active Member

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  10. leo gali

    leo gali Active Member

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    good article looking at Marchionne and FCA from a stricter angle, plus a nice calculation from MorganStanley:

    Mr. Marchionne also has a couple of other tricks up his sleeve.

    First, he’s spinning off Ferrari to investors later this year. That could help reduce costs and debt, if only a bit.

    Then there’s the weaker euro.

    A 10 per cent strengthening of the U.S. dollar could boost pretax income by up to €900-million depending on hedges, according to Morgan Stanley.
     
  11. RVC

    RVC Active Member

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    Yep, currency exchange rates are becoming volatile. 1:1 seems within the realm of possibilities in the short-medium term.
     
  12. leo gali

    leo gali Active Member

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    talk about putting your money where your mouth is, Baillie Gifford have gone from 2.64% to 7.29% and will be supporting Exor in the running of FCA.

    stability in FCA is very important, and Baillie Gifford is a very solid investment group (link for further info).

    very nice to have this support and i am sure Marchionne is pleased.



    Feb 10 (Reuters) - Edinburgh-based asset manager Baillie Gifford has increased its stake in carmaker Fiat Chrysler Automobiles <FCAU.N to 7.29 percent, a regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed on Tuesday.

    Baillie Gifford said in the SEC filing that it had acquired the stake as part of its ordinary business and not in connection with any operation aimed at influencing control at Fiat Chrysler.

    The asset manager had a 2.64 percent stake at the time of Fiat's shareholder meeting on Aug. 1 last year, according to shareholder data from the meeting. link to article

     
    #12 leo gali, Feb 13, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2015
  13. Robinson

    Robinson Member

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    Found some new information about the situation First Quarter 2016:

    3 Catalysts for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAU)

    QUOTE: "Currently, the stock is trading lower than the 4X enterprise value or EBIT. Similarly, its price to book and price to sales for the trailing twelve-month period is lower than the industry average. That is despite the three-year average revenue growth of 9.7% versus industry averages of only 0.7%. Also, its forward PE is only 4.33 times, which is lower than the industry average. Its price to cash per share is cheaper than the industry."​
     
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  14. Prabhjot

    Prabhjot Active Member

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    @Robinson

    One is and should be LONG fcau, but most of these citations/links are, at best, "unreliable", either analytically or as authoritative sources of investment recomendations. The fcau story is still a longer-term one: its 'happy ending', IF there is to be one, is still years away: i.e., merger(s) or whatever in 2018 or beyond. Great so far, though, IF all things are considered!

    cheers
     
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  15. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    Since people were pissed at me before for editing posts badly, I will ask you to remove most of the copyrighted material you've posted here instead.
     
  16. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    Yes. I followed their advice in a fantasy stock market world and would have lost gobs of cash. They don't know what they're talking about most of the time - have this idea that everything can be seen with a few numbers. If it was that simple, math wizards would all become billionaires.
     
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  17. Robinson

    Robinson Member

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    can not edit, remove what needs to be removed. thanks.
     
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  18. AlfaCuda

    AlfaCuda Active Member

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    Could someone with access to, please do us a comparison table of FCAU and its peers for P/E, PBV, DY etc. I know FCAU has yet to distribute dividends.....

    For me the biggest risk for the stock seems like the succession plan. SM despite all his PR shortcomings has worked a miracle whichever way one looks at it. Only those who vehemently REFUSE to see reality (and there are plenty here) will disagree.

    I worry about how adventurous or conservative the successor is likely to be. I cannot see anyone daring and charismatic enough to fill in that sweater in the current line up. Or at least they haven't made their presence been felt.
     
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  19. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    I saw the same bullish words for several stocks just before they went under...

    just sayin’

    I put my money where my mouth is with FCAU. I believe it will rise but I am glad I sold off some at $8.20... (I tend to only buy when it plummets and have some that I sell off when it rises again. The roller coaster funds the longer term investment. Not something I'd do with a company I don't follow and it is risky.)

    I have noticed that analysts' long term targets are almost always crazy high.
     
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  20. Prabhjot

    Prabhjot Active Member

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    Yes, buy as-low-as-possible (something that is happily for some of us happening repeatedly since the ferrari spinoff and the subsequent market jitters) is the only real assurance. The default-bet (if holding longer-term) is on a merger-revaluation, but what the hell that'll be given the craziness of market-reckonings these days....who knows?

    So @AlfaCuda yes, the bet is very much one on Marchionne+Elkann, personally. I doubt M will be THAT retiring come 2018 or 2020. He's the main-man for EXOR as-a-whole, for Ferrari.....and for whatever 'deal'(s) are done then with FCA. He's done the very big PartnerRe one for EXOR recently, the Economist one, the recent Italian media one....

    FCAU is a stock that's very difficult to judge based on the usual college-kid analyst data points: Ferrari's just gone, the nhtsa 900mill$ hit, major debt-retirings, re-pricings etc going on+fast growth in the us as well as europe but with still-poor though rising margins, major new plants just starting out in China, Brazil, Turkey....
     
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