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FCAU shares - rumors, information and opinion.

Discussion in 'Fiat News & Rumors' started by leo gali, Nov 18, 2014.

  1. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    FCAU has dropped down below $7/share.

    The big money appears to be set on “failure” rather than $17/share. Some of this might be the effect of shorts coming due, though.
     
    Prabhjot and Medicin-Man like this.
  2. Robinson

    Robinson Member

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    Today 07 april 2016 the whole market is down.
    Normal ups and downs.

    No idea why you think $17 is the value of FCAU.

    What i do know is that some people have been buying slowly but surely:

    Baillie Gifford & Co. increased its stake

    Harris Associates L P increased its stake

    Deutsche Bank AG increased its stake

    Vanguard Group Inc. increased its stake

    Norges Bank acquired a new stake


    These are not funds that speculate.
    I can not put in links or quotes of text as you have stopped me doing that, so you will have to do your own research.
     
  3. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    Yes, the market is down, but FCAU is really down. Not quite normal. It plummeted with the last sales report.

    The $17 is the analysts' consensus.

    You can list companies that increased their stake and I can list companies that cut their stake.

    They are indeed funds that speculate. All non-index funds speculate. Vanguard has numerous funds that have gone down. They make bad bets, too - though they tend to be relatively conservative and trustworthy on the whole.

    I am highly doubting the analysts' $17. Also, about a third still say sell... and analysts tend to be bulls.
     
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  4. Robinson

    Robinson Member

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    Well, i never belief analysts for a start. With the internet, everyone is an analyst.

    Vanguard indeed has numerous funds so you would have to look up which is the one that invests in FCAU.

    Some of the Vanguard boys know what they are doing, some are risk funds. Many structures are run that way. Take your pick, is all i can say.

    There seems to be a level around $6 to $6.15 when buying kicks in. Nothing big, just strong.

    Top ceiling for me in the next 18 to 24 months around $8 to $8.75

    Good luck with your $17.
     
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  5. Hank600ES

    Hank600ES Active Member

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    I've noticed the stock moves like a small cap, runs a bit lower and a bit higher as the market moves down or up. Q1 could be a good quarter, good trends in the EU, NA and even Brazil, not sure about Asia. Short term risk is if the market goes down. Vanguard has been a long term holder of a large chunk of their stock. And by no means take this as advice to buy stock. The biggest gambling institution in the world is the US stock marker.
     
    #25 Hank600ES, Apr 7, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2016
    Prabhjot likes this.
  6. Prabhjot

    Prabhjot Active Member

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    What matters to FCA is cost of new debt-funding NOT the stock. Which remains better-than-ever, IMO quite stably. That gives me immense confidence in the longer range denouement of the share value, which can only be guaged longer-term (2018+), since that will be when the new 'plan' plays outfully enough, and presumably the merger(s)/deal(s) are consummated.

    All-else-being-equal, which they are NOT. The repeatedly low (shorted heavily) reversions, reacting in an amplified way to broader sectoral and market trends IMO present unprecedented investment, rather than trading, opportunities, if one is willing to bet on the 2018 zero-net-debt etc target's accomplishment+ of course a big deal after, or about then.

    As am sure many investment firms, such as the ones listed by @Robinson , are VERY 'on to.' All else being equal, a very very good and very safe bet because prices ($7+ and often-) appear too-deeply-discounted/'mispriced'. Misread. Misinterpreted.

    Who knows these days, though? Most autofirm stocks are beatendown, there is so much money of so many different types that the gambling is and sure feels like....gambling! Am happy to a very little bit at a time on FCAU only because mefeels it is much too cheap not to.
     
  7. Robinson

    Robinson Member

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    08-april 2016 Milan closed up 4.18% FCAU still going strong, up 4.77%.

    Someone increased their stake and did not wait for $6.15
     
  8. valiant67

    valiant67 Rich Corinthian Leather
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    You can have lots of fun plotting various stock or indexes against FCAU using online tools. But then hindsight is 20/20.
    In general, the trend is that FCAU has substantially under-performed the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500. That's probably true for most of the automotive sector.
    FCAU has performed about the same as Ford Motor Company and both outperformed General Motors.
     
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  9. Robinson

    Robinson Member

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    After the Ferrari split, we seem to have found steady ground between $7 and $8.
     
  10. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    It's back to $8.04.

    I have a sell order at $9 ;) but will be keeping some.

    I have some FCAU but not enough to bias my reporting.
     
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  11. Prabhjot

    Prabhjot Active Member

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    http://europe.autonews.com/article/...l-magneti-marelli-parts-unit-to-samsung-in-3b

    If true: the zero-net-debt by 2018, even as an approximately 50billion$ new model etc investment program is financed on better-than-ever financial terms is....ON.

    This, alongwith the hiving-off of Ferrari (loading it with extra debt, though) is to me proof that:

    (a) they want to make fca an automotive brands-centric firm, since ultimately THAT is the only usp any car firm has anymore (given the intense commoditisation of technology, and its suppliers)

    (b) they want to complete the re-buoying of all their brands, all of which are hoary old ones, with lots of still-implicit charisma and aura, that are awaiting all-new product and associated marketing and dsitribution. Jeep: largely done. Maserati: somewhat. Alfa Romeo: underway. Fiat: mostly. Dodge: mostly. Ram: done. Pending/doubtful: Chrysler and Lancia.

    (c) they're preparing the balance sheet for a large-merger and/or acquisition for the very and ever-present reason: the poverty of the return on invested capital in the automotive business, given current soaring costs of compliance, regulations, new product development and marketing, and new technology-disruptions. Magneti Marelli, even though it has a great record with IP, innovation and expertise in many important areas, is, just like all suppliers, a very low-return-on-invested-capital business.

    @Dave Z @MJAB
     
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  12. valiant67

    valiant67 Rich Corinthian Leather
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    The cheaper FCA stock is the more likely it will be acquired. The stock is greatly under-performing.
    Since the date of inception, FCAU stock is down 42.92%.
    Since the same date Ford stock is down 19.92%.
    Since the same date GM stock is down 5.04%.
    Since the same date the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 4.35%.
    At that low stock price (which is still on an overall downward trend) the impetus for the "merger" may not come from within FCA but from disgruntled investors.
     
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  13. MJAB

    MJAB Well-Known Member

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    In my opinion, if FCA sells Magneti Marelli, it is not a very good strategic move since they will lost access to future key technologies, such as all the sector of electric motors, battery management and related controls (and also lighting).
    There companies have since ever cycled between vertical integration and periods where externalize is a must.
    The big big problem when You buy is that You have to have the technical knowledge of what You are buying (see for example ZF 9 speed that was selected in Auburn Hills or the Cherokee AAM AWD drivetrain for the Cherokee). In the short term they will not have problems, but in medium/long term, when engineers will end their carrier than they will have a lot of problems.

    They are doing what the so called "marked" is asking since years = split to maximize the value.
    But the market has only a short term vision.
    It is even worst since they quoted FCA also at NYSE (even if the floating share are lower in NYSE than in european market). But was more a political move than a financial move.

    Ferrari, hereafter the link to the Q2, H1 financial results.
    http://corporate.ferrari.com/sites/..._-_ferrari_-_q2_2016_results_presentation.pdf

    Knowledge is all, but the problem is how to measure it in economic/financial terms. And that is a big big problem in the "greed" economy.
    Knowledge goes beyond the patents.
     
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  14. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    MJAB - Yes, we agree.

    That said, they might be talking about releasing just the telematics portion and keeping the lighting and propulsion businesses, which is more important for FCA. Samsung would only be interested in telematics, and that so they can give their phones an edge.
     
  15. MJAB

    MJAB Well-Known Member

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    Samsung is expanding its business also in other automotive sector other than the semiconductors.
    For example in 2015 Samsung SDI bought the battery pack division of Magna International.
    December 2015 they announced they will create a new business unit, the one for automotive to supply car manufacturers. Also announced that will supply autonomous driving technologies (parts for ??? ).

    Magneti Marelli manufacturing/expertise range also on instruments clusters, engine control systems (for example also flex technologies) for cars and motorcycles, injection systems, ... and all electric part.

    But maybe the potentially most interesting part of the company is the motorsport division: telemetry systems, gasoline injectors (in F1 are using 500 bar injectors), actuators for gearboxes, engine control systems, "by-wire" applications, KERS, electric motors and battery management systems ...

    The divisions that could not interest them are probably: suspensions sytems, exhaust systems and plastics parts.
     
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  16. T_690

    T_690 Active Member

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    @MJAB

    FCA use Bosch GDI system instead of MM? For me it's a little weird. Also new GME has 200 bar injectors while BMW and VAG are going to 350 bar systems.
     
  17. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    Ford uses the FCA-MM telematics (or did until very recently) which I did not know. MM certainly does have a good rep. BMW at least can spend more on parts including hoses and pumps, and VAG can afford more failures ;)
     
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  18. Prabhjot

    Prabhjot Active Member

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    The market does not understand that FCA's rhythm of brands, products, plants is at a peculiar variance to the rest of the industry, simply because the market does not 'get' that FCA is a peculiar, merged entity that is still-young and not done in its structural 'rebirth' yet:

    (a) the pentup demand there is for Jeeps globally, and for Alfa+Maserati+(Fiat too, in part: just wait for the Brazil market bottom, which is around now, and for Fiats-as-Rams in many new markets for work/vans and pickups)

    (b) the nyse market is WAY too usa-market-centric in its 'processing' of information. Interestingly the Ford stock has dipped far more than fca's after both of their recent analyst/investor concalls: rising incentives, fast rising rental sales, brexit, a sinking sedan market in the usa, etc. Despite their generous dividend payouts: the only thing that seems to count in the stock market inthe usa these days. Am sure FCA will start paying out dividends come the zero net-debt etc in 2018: after all the Agnelli-s/EXOR surely want at least something for their 5-million-cars-selling holdings in FCA.

    (c) the market tends to discount fca's ability to be profitable in europe, something fca has already proven wrong, and will further, given the several all-new conquest-sales models that have been (Alfa Giulia, Fiat Tipo, Maserati Levante et al) and will continue to be launched there (new Alfas mainly). The market does not appreciate that FCA has so many 'white space' segments and geographies to grow in, regardless of how the other firms are faring. e.g., Wrangler pickup, Grand Wagoneer, Alfa-s, new LatAm more 'premium' Fiats in 2017, new Jeeps from the brand new Jeep plants in China, Brazil, and India, etc. FCA has been outperforming in the car market in not just the usa (sales wise, not net-margins) but also Europe for the last 2+ years, and is now of meaningful sales-size in china too, with india to follow in 2017.

    (d) FCA is a business-family owned or rather controlled firm, and an old family at that, one that's famously longterm in its orientation. Imo this means that the share price matters not much at all as regards either investment-financing (i.e., more via debt on now/finally great terms for fca, given QE in europe and loose money in the usa) OR any decision on M &/or A. Or, admittedly: a selloff of a brand or two, like say Chrysler or say Lancia? M&A and/or selloffs like of Magneti Marelli will be determined by the 'price is right'/'the terms are good' as autonomously (rather than under shareholder/investor pressure) decided by JE, exor+M. THAT is what is different about FCA relative to Chrysler corp for most of its life: wealthy, strong business-family ownership/control. And imo, a good thing too! Caveat: if there is a eurozone meltdown or other such direness economically soon in even the usa, then who knows??
     
  19. MJAB

    MJAB Well-Known Member

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    It depends on companies offers and projects. Magneti Marelli makes its offer as other parts suppliers.
    Volkswagen group uses in some of its engines the Magneti Marelli GDI injectors and/or GDI pumps.
    It is not easy to know since these news usually appear in small articles.

    In last year Magneti Marelli received public funds for assembly line of a new GDI injector and pump for its plant in Modugno (Italy). Plus other funds for a up to 380 bar GDI.
    In the same plant are manufactured the electric motors for Chrysler Pacifica (they received public funds for the production line). If I am right MM should also source the battery management system and the inverter, but I am not sure.
     
  20. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    Prabhjot pointed out the advantages of being a long term family held firm, something Ford also enjoys.

    The market is a lousy judge of companies’ worth, which is one reason they fluctuate so much — because that “state of perfect information” it requires is absent and few take the time to really dig in, anyway, and that includes analysts. That said, do those numbers include the Ferrari stock that was assigned to investors?
     
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