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Discussion in 'Auto News & Rumors' started by 77 Monaco Brougham, Oct 2, 2017.
Don't count on fuel cells being prominent at all.
Battery technology is definitively changing. Remember the bag phone of the 1990s? It was so big and heavy because the battery was huge. Now look at a modern phone - it does more, yet the battery is far smaller and lighter.
Gasoline may still have advantages, but those advantages are decreasing every year.
The battery is far smaller and lighter because the bag phones used 3 watts of power, and today's phones use 0.3 watts to 0.6 watts. But I get your meaning.
In addition to to the myth that FCA is getting left behind in EV technology, there is also the belief that electric utility companies are unaware of the impact of the growing fleet of electric vehicles. There is a lot of work going on behind the scenes.
Actually, a great deal of the improvements came with the creation of low power processors, displays and storage, not just in battery tech.
We are in an area of major disruption to business as we know it in many arenas.
Amazons acquisition of Whole Foods, other Grocery chains building what are called 'dark stores' (stores where only delivery or drive thru orders are processed.
Shoe manufacturing: Adidas just pulled ahead in the '3-d printed shoe' race. Several thousand manufactured by end of 2017, with 100,000+ planned for 2018.
Electrification of the automobile: UK's new law: no Internal combustion new vehicles sold after 2040. Norway just announced no IC new vehicles after 2025 (that's not a typo).
The arguments: There's no infrastructure for mass charging, no quick charge stations nearby, etc..
... rewind 100 years... "There's no infrastructure for getting gasoline--it's hard to find. No roads for these new gas powered vehicles to be able to drive on, no one to repair them, etc...."
The thing is that within 10 years, things drastically changed, especially in the USA. My belief is that with technology we currently have we will see a faster disruption and change than the shift from horse/buggy/blacksmith to auto/gasoline a hundred years ago.
GM's comments.. Ford's comments in the other thread about mad rush to electrification in this same section.
Don't confuse organic change with legislative change.
Retail is changing dramatically because the market has chosen it. Amazon is driven by the people choosing to buy there over driving to a store, looking around and making a purchase. That is organic change.
Automotive has organic change also. There should be multiple modes of propulsion......ICE, CNG, Electric, etc. This creates CHOICE that the market can then pick which is best.
Unfortunately, governments get involved and subsidize luxury electric cars, pass legislation to ban ICE engines and other disruptions to the CHOICE of the market.
Trust me, all these bans on internal combustion engines will simply result in special permits for internal combustion engines, more bureaucracy and more regulation. Government bureaucrats will choose who can own an internal combustion engine and who cannot......and in many places it will be based on political donations, like so much of government decisions.
My suggestion is to remove all subsidies and funding, let the industry take the risks of offering alternative modes of propulsion and then let the market decide what they want. This nonsense of deciding what another person "needs" is nothing more than thinly veiled fascism.
I have a friend who owned a Toyota SUV which was a hybrid. The rear cargo area got wet while hauling something, which ruined his battery system. Cost him thousands of dollars to get it repaired.
We can agree to disagree, but the IC engine IS the best we can do. Do you think innovators and inventors just threw their hands up in the air and gave up once Henry Ford started mass producing IC engines? Trust me...many people have been looking for better solutions for a century.
I would also add that we can't underestimate the joy of driving that Americans have. Look at how popular Dodge's muscle cars are today. The more gas guzzling horsepower they throw into them, the more of them they sell. People in this country don't want to ride in appliances every day. They want to DRIVE.
Anecdotal evidence of one incident does not equate to the experience of hundreds of millions of cars produced.
Dominant technology is not necessarily the best. Witness Beta vs VHS. Dominance does not always come about from being the best technical choice. Sometimes it's politics, bribery, collusion or propaganda.
We cannot afford to have 160 million vehicles in this country all burning HC fuels indefinitely, no matter how much progress has been made in cleaning them up. We need zero emissions when you operate on this scale. And we will get there.
The comparison between electrics and IC of 100 years ago, and electrics that are still emerging today vs today's IC engines, is not a valid comparison.
I agree with you that politics plays a large part in this which is why also I agree with Erik. We should remove subsidies from the ENTIRE auto industry, not just EVs. Let the best tech win.
Also don't forget that ICEs can burn fuels other than petrol products. There are HCs that burn much cleaner than gas and diesel. BMW was working on hydrogen burning engines until they found out about the free money in EVs. As far as I know their hydrogen engine program is dead now.
The combustion engine might take a hiatus for a few years, but it can always come back in a different form. It hasn't maxed out yet.
ICE is superior now because it has a head start. It may not always remain the best solution, especially not for everyone. That is why I like having choices, so I can choose what is best for me, based on what I WANT, not on what some faceless person in Washington DC decides I NEED.
Absolutely! The changeover from horse & buggy to the automobile didn't happen because legislators outlawed horses. The market will do the job a lot better than lawmakers. Electric vehicles are amazingly close in capability/cost to IC vehicles already. Just a few more improvements (which are in progress now) may catch them up or surpass them. It's not hard to envision electric cars with triple the range of current offerings, rechargeable in minutes, at competitive cost (without tax credits) with IC cars. At that point, the market will be clamoring for the electric car. For the few who for some reason need to continue to buy IC vehicles, they will likely be more expensive than electrics because of economies of scale.
Yes that was the point I was making. I think many misunderstood. The same arguments were made 100 years ago. Technology is new (ICE), the horse has been proven to be more reliable and economical then this new technology, etc.
And I would agree that once economies of scale happen and we reach the tipping point, change will start to happen at an exponential rate of change.
Now, do I like it or embrace it... well maybe not.
CT has fuel cells in a few buses for a decade now. Heavily subsidized. Not much progress that I've heard about.
Mercedes and others have been working on hydrogen power for a long time. Storage is the big obstacle. [tank weight and safety.]
The ICE efficiency has improved somewhat in the last 50 years. Emissions have improved a lot.
Electric cars are not quite there yet. Hybrids are. But too expensive.
The electrical grid can handle a lot more usage between 9PM and 6AM. [a guess]
Until Jeeps, horses could still go places that vehicles could not.
From where I'm sitting, the sweet spot would seem to be some type of hybrid, where the electric motor does what it does best (i.e., instant torque for propulsion), and the fossil fuel motor does what it does best (i.e., recharging and, thus, extending the range of the EV).
The electric motor brings one set of consumer benefits:
Clean energy generation (wellbeing)
Instant torque with less energy wasted (gratification)
Simplicity from fewer moving parts (cost and convenience)
Low cost of operation (cost and convenience)
The gasoline/diesel motor brings another set of consumer benefits:
Fast refueling (cost and convenience)
Widespread availability --thanks to an infrastructure built over 100 years (cost and convenience)
Wider range (freedom and security)
Low cost of acquisition (cost and convenience)
Usually the fusion of technologies that allow consumers to maximize benefits signal a true innovation, and that innovation imposes itself over either of the individual technologies.
Because hybrids fuse two technologies that results in maximization of benefits to consumers, it has the greatest chance to succeed than either EV or ICE by itself.
An existing hurdle right now is, thanks to Toyota, hybrids are perceived to be mostly a fuel-saving innovation. But Porsche and Ferrari are showing that hybrids are in fact, much more than that.
The day the general public becomes aware of the full potential hybrid technology offers, it will mark a new era in automaking.
Hybrid is the best solution and for a long time. A hybrid I'd consider, an EV nope.
Batteries still have a few years to go, but they will soon enough be able to soundly defeat the internal combustion engine in just about every parameter.
Show me an engine, that retains 97% of its power end efficiency for 25years. Tesla (and others) will soon have that capability. It will have 97% of its power, recharge and range for 25 years. I believe that is a 2020 MY goal for Tesla.
Recharge will very soon plummet. The cash going into this effort (from all fronts) is absolutely mind boggling. Cars just a small part of it. What happens to used car batteries? They are leased/sold to utilities or other large users of electricity, where they are plugged into a “battery farm” that stores excess grid energy.
Electrics have already pretty Ben that they are just as quick as any ICE. The hurdles they have left are few, and they are falling.
With all the talk and research going on with batteries......let's not forget that similar research is going on with supercapacitors.
Are Supercapacitors About to Make Tesla Obsolete? - YouTube
Super-Charged Supercapacitors Could Enable Speedy Recharging - YouTube
For people who must use dyno fuel:
A Fuel Cell Directly Fueled With Jet Fuel or Gasoline (at http://newenergyandfuel.com/http:/newenergyandfuel/com/2014/06/17/a-fuel-cell-directly-fueled-with-jet-fuel-or-gasoline/ )