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Discussion in 'Rumors and Speculation' started by Jtecho, Oct 12, 2017.
Wouldn't have been worth being on a truck chassis if it didn't have Trail Rating. lol
Just broke down and bought a Yukon for the wife.
Maybe now we will have something to trade it for in a few years.
Biggest thing people are failing to understand, by Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer being based on Ram DT it means a lot of the next generation Ram lift kits and offroad goodies will be easy to switch between Ram DT and the upcoming Wagoneer WS.
Does this mean the DT will have a wood grain siding option as well?
Would the main difference between Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer be wheelbase or just trim level?
Will we see a 6.4 to compete with the GM/Cadillac 6.2?
Yes. I posted this a long time ago.
The Wagoneer will need to be very nice indeed to compete against the GM offerings. Those owners are pretty dedicated to the brand. Good luck to us.
Indeed. This will be the ultimate test to the strength of the Jeep brand.
The Commander should not indicate any potential appetite by the market for the planned Wagoneer/Grand Wagoneer as the Commander/Durango are not as wide and spacious as the GM Tahoe/Suburban variants.
The Commander showed that FLEX could build highly different vehicles on the same line more than a decade ago. It also showed that Jeep cannot flourish by splitting its customers into different versions of the same vehicles. This lesson is being seen with Renegade, Compass and Cherokee as well where they are cannibalizing each other's sales.
Yes, I know that the three are different sizes, but, it seems that in the minds of the consumer, there is little difference between the Renegade, Compass and Cherokee. When you consider that the Compass has more cargo room than the Cherokee, it makes sense to think of it this way.
Cherokee started its decline with Renegade. Renegade started its decline with Compass. Cherokee continues to fall while Renegade has been a mixed bag.
That is interesting.
Normally, top-of-line vehicles like Chrysler 300, Toyota Avalon, Nissan Maxima, Ford Taurus are purchased by older, die-hard loyals who have the financial means and the brand commitment to pay a premium well above and beyond what the average buyer is willing to pay for that brand name. We normally call those vehicles of no return, because their next vehicle is a hearse...
In fairness to Jeep it was in a catch-22 with Commander: Grand Cherokee owners are very clear they do not want a 3-row vehicle. So the only way to get into the 3-row game was by selling a vehicle under a different name. Nevertheless, it sounds like Commander may have done what senior models traditionally do: i.e., pull up a portion of affluent Grand Cherokee owners staunchly loyal to Jeep, without conquesting from the competition.
If Jeep hopes to sell Grand Wagoneer in much greater numbers than Land Cruiser, it is going to have to play a balancing act between (1) retaining la crême de la crême of Jeep owners, (2) attracting existing 3-row owners from the competition, (3) attracting brand-new customer purchasing their first 3-row CUV, and (4) all the while minimizing cannibalization of Grand Cherokee sales.
That is not a 2018 Outback. This is:
This is explained by the numbers:
Jeep has a brand opinion of around 20. For context, Toyota and Honda have a brand opinion of 40; Chevrolet and Ford are around 27. Others with a brand opinion of 20 are Nissan and Subaru.
Brand opinion is a strong predictor of profitable sales.
Toyota (opinion = 40) has a market share of around 15% by competing in every segment. Honda (40) has a market share of 10% by competing in only 2/3 of the market —i.e., Honda shuns Fullsize pickups, Fullsize SUVs, Sporty Cars, etc.— and light use of incentives.
Ford (27) has a market share of 15% by competing in every segment, but aided by heavy use of incentives. Chevrolet (27) has a 10% market share by competing in every segment, aided by heavy use of incentives, and cannibalization from GMC and Buick.
Nissan (20) has a market share of 10% by competing in every segment, and aided by heavy use of incentives. Subaru (20 and growing) has a market share of 4% by competing in half of the market with very little use of incentives. Jeep (20) has a 5% market share by also competing in only half of the market with relatively heavy use of incentives.
And so on, and so.
Brand opinion and market share move slowy year over year. So you can build a predictive model by plotting all the numbers for all the brands in the market, and doing a time series analysis if you will.
The bottom line is this: Jeep’s ability to grow sales are already heavily constrained by a brand opinion of 20. This is why it is unable to grow the total pie despite adding models. This goes to your point that “...it seems that in the minds of the consumer, there is little difference between the Renegade, Compass and Cherokee.”
Indeed, Jeep sales only get shifted among the relatively finite pool of people who have a high opinion of Jeep, so when Renegade gets added Cherokee loses, when Compass gets redesigned Renegade loses, etc. This is likely what happened to Comander, too.
Grand Wagoneer will have a difficult task growing total Jeep sales as long as Jeep opinion remains stuck at 20. Moreover, it will have to compete agaisnt Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota, which already have stronger brand opinion, which will help them fend off Jeep. Even Nissan, the weaklink in the Fullsize SUV category, has a brand opinion equal to Jeep‘s.
Nissan is most likely where Jeep will be most successful conquesting from, along with pulling up a portion of Grand Cherokee loyals (i.e., cannibalizing), and attracting a small number of first time category shoppers.
But let’s not fool ourselves. The Fullsize SUV segment is small. So, even if Grand Wagoneer is widely successful, we are talking very small numbers overall. Where I gather Jeep thinks Grand Wagoneer may help, is in the high visibility markets overseas, currently dominated by Toyota Land Cruisers and Nissan Patrols.
I am going to take a guess here.
There is a portion of Grand Cherokee buyers that want a 3 row. I think another portion want something different from every other Grand Cherokee out there (I think this explains why the large number of trim lines have been successful).
Commander offered both those groups of Grand Cherokee buyers something they could not get in a Grand Cherokee.
Commander did not attract a non-Jeep buyer who wanted a 3 row SUV nor anyone who wanted something different from what is out there.
As @TripleT said, the third row was not very usable for those who wanted a third row. If you had young kids it was fine. Otherwise, no.
Only the most blinded loyalist here thinks Wagoneer/Grand Wagoneer will have an easy time in the market. We know that GM owns this with the Tahoe/Suburban and variants. Ford, Toyota and others have tried to penetrate with no real success.
The analysis you provide is very interesting and really does explain a lot about what we have seen with Jeep in the US since the bankruptcy......a rise to a plateau and constant market share.
There is also the "Jeep factor", in that owning a Jeep is considered cool, owning a Tahoe or Suburban is not. I think you and aldo are greatly underestimating the brand value, loyalty, and recognition of Jeep.
I have friends who say "Wow, that new [Renegade, Compass, Cherokee] is cool, I want a Jeep now!" They would not be caught dead saying "Wow, look at that Equinox."
I'd agree except for loyalty. While Jeep enjoys a fanatical following, I believe it's been stated that the brand has a high percentage of one-and-done owners (mostly around how everyone has to own a Wrangler at least once in their life). I don't know how "loyal" owners of Renegades, Compass or Cherokees are. Grand Cherokee owners are probably more loyal, so Jeep may be able to retain those people from jumping to to Ford or GM full size SUV's.
Now I do agree that a DS based Wagoneer can be an immediate hit because it has brand and name recognition and, if Jeep gets a good styling on it, it can be the hot new vehicle that makes the Tahoes and Expiditions looks like weak sauce.
But yet of all the vehicles mentioned in that sentence, the best seller in the US is the Chevy Equinox.
In fact Equinox comes very close to Renegade/Cherokee/Compass combined in year to date US sales.
Did you read and comprehend @aldo90731 post? He was talking about the brand value, which is less than Ford or Chevy and far less than Toyota.
If Ford and Toyota, with stronger brands could not break into GM's market, Jeep might find it difficult as well.
I honestly hope that I am wrong because I love the idea of a BOF Wagoneer. Unfortunately, I can look at reality and just don't see it,
The Jeep brand is not as strong as you are thinking.
Yes, I did read and comprehend that post. Real life doesn't seem to align with that though. I don't know of anyone who thinks a Jeep is less cool than a Ford or Chevy, which was the point of my prior post. That may not translate directly to sales, but it will certainly help make the Wagoneer/GW more aspirational than a Tahoe.