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The loss of 200 and Dart....

Discussion in 'Mopar News' started by CDJSalesPro, Dec 2, 2017.

  1. aldo90731

    Level III Supporter

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    And I see industry-wide information, which is available only to subscribers, that show that FCA made decisions, including dropping two sedans in core segments, that make it less likely that FCA survives.

    Yes, FCA receives this information, but I don't know if it makes it to the right levels, or if it is just gets dismissed because it doesn't suit their plans.
     
  2. DAGAR

    DAGAR Active Member

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    Don't worry, Aldo. My information is industry-wide as well. The problem with most analysis is that it's backward looking and tends to assume that the future looks like the past. In the next couple of decades that will not be true at all in the automotive business. The game is changing and there are soon going to be a number of buggy whip makers out there. They'll consolidate as the market deteriorates, but in the end nobody's going to want a buggy whip. Only the companies that make the right mergers and acquisitions are going to survive this.
     
    #442 DAGAR, Dec 7, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2017
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  3. Erik Latranyi

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    Their plans are purely financial and short-term.

    There is no long term thinking taking place.....in automotive, long-term is 5 to 10 years out.

    FCA planning is sub-5 year.
     
  4. aldo90731

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    Well, if by surviving you mean passing on its genes to someone else, then I agree ;)

    BTW, we don't use backwards looking data. The basis of our data is new-vehicle purchase intentions, which is forward looking. When you aggregate it into the thousands, you get all kinds of juicy insights. Purchase intentions, being pre-purchase, give you a very different perspective from sales, which is post-purchase. This is how we know, for example, that existing sedan owners account for the bulk of migration to CUVs.

    Having said that, consumers don't know what they don't know. So, they cannot tell us that they will be buying autonomous vehicles in five years because they haven't seen them yet. Then again, neither can automakers at this point. All automakers can do is jokey for position and hope things work as planned.
     
  5. DAGAR

    DAGAR Active Member

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    Exactly right, Aldo. Add to that that most autonomous vehicles (especially level 4 and 5 early on) will not be "owned" by an individual and you will see that they really don't know what's coming. You are going to have some fun figuring out how to change the business you are in to continue to provide great insight to the manufacturers now that the future is cluttered with competing models of transportation. Hint most of the models are wrong. ;)
     
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  6. CivoLee

    CivoLee Active Member

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    I have a friend with ties to the tech industry, and he's said that his colleagues in autonomous car development have said there are still A LOT of bugs to iron out.

    Sorry, technocrats. You're going to have to share the road with the poors in some capacity for the rest of your lives, just like you always have.
     
  7. valiant67

    valiant67 Rich Corinthian Leather
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    Some do, most don’t. Maserati is paired with Alfa in many cases.
     
  8. aldo90731

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    Fortunately, I am not in the business of forecasting. I am in the business of helping automakers uncover what consumers want. And as long as there are consumers, automakers will want to know what consumers want.
     
  9. DAGAR

    DAGAR Active Member

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    touche... ;)
     
  10. valiant67

    valiant67 Rich Corinthian Leather
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    Even in FWD cars, it is possible to shake up the segment and add bust out. One only needs to look back a couple decades to see what LH did to the FWD car market.
     
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  11. TripleT

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    Everything will be at least a mild Hybrid in 5 years, and every thing will have some level of Autonomy in 10. I don't think either kill any of the dominate player anymore than any other tech, it will be bought, developed, or stolen to be integrated in their product line.....
     
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  12. BobbiBigWheels

    BobbiBigWheels I'm likely at work...
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    Has what a client "wants" changed all that drastically?

    We categorize our clients into "SPACED" -

    S-afety
    P-erformance
    A-ppearance/Styling
    C-omfort/Convenience
    E-conomy
    D-ependability

    One could argue these same principles were "wants" for as long as vehicles existed.
     
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  13. duster92

    duster92 Well-Known Member

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    I don't quite believe the hype of autonomous vehicles. I think cars will have autonomous features...but Level 5 vehicles are a long way off.
     
  14. aldo90731

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    Correct. Consumer needs haven't changed that much. But the sort is different:

    The top three most basic requirements that drive sales volume are rational (in descending order):
    • Dependability
    • Safety --achieving high safety ratings implies a level of quality work
    • Practicality/overall value/efficiency --4-doors, 5-seating capacity, cargo room, MPG
    Then you get the elements that tend to drive price, which are more emotional:
    • Styling --especially important among first time buyers and those coming in to a brand for the first time
    • Quality of the materials, fit and finish
    • Handling and ride --because it contains an element of safety in it. Acceleration, by contrast, doesn't carry nearly as much influence on consumers' decision.
    • Comfort and features
    BTW, these consumer needs are pretty constant across markets --i.e., Canada, US, Mexico, etc. What changes are two things primarily:
    1. What consumers understand a brand to mean or represent in that market. For instance, Fiat means one thing in Europe (e.g., the brand I grew up with) and something completely different over here (e.g., Fix It Again Tony). Similarly, Chrysler means one thing in Canada and something slightly different in the US. These differences are shaped by the brand's history in that market, by prevailing fuel prices, by taxes, regulations, climate, etc.
      • Automakers usually have it backwards: they believe that their brand means the same everywhere, and it is that consumers are different
    2. Consumers' life-stage: younger buyers tend to be first time buyers and, by definition do not yet have loyalty to any brand, so styling and performance take precedence over dependability and safety. Once they experience what it is to own a vehicle, dependability acquires more importance than styling. Also, as they acquire responsibilities, get married and have kids, safety becomes more important than performance.
    If there is anything you can take from all of this is the following:

    Quality is the most important purchase differentiator out there, period. When a customer walks into your dealership, the assumption is that s/he views CDJR quality to be acceptable. Otherwise s/he wouldn't be stepping in. If you are dealing with a returning customer, you can be pretty sure they are sold on the quality you have to offer. However, if you are dealing with someone driving in a Toyota or a Honda, you need to assume that you need to put their concerns regarding CDJR quality to rest. Also, among truck buyers, it is less about "reliability" and more about "durability". This is why domestics can sell trucks to Toyota and Honda owners: Ram, Ford and Chevy have credibility delivering "durability". Also, this is the reason you see an Accord owner taking a chance on a Jeep Wrangler: they are after that durability domestics are known for. Although they wouldn't be willing to take a similar chance to go from an Accord to a 200.

    As CUVs become more mainstream, you will find shoppers will increasingly expect reliability of a Jeep Compass as if it were a car, not durability as if it were a truck. This will make it harder to compete when they are cross-shopping a CR-V or a RAV4.

    Only once a customer is comfortable with the quality, they are ready to entertain other wants and needs.

    Quality is also the biggest determinant of loyalty and repurchase.

    Even younger buyers who tend to be lured in by styling, brand image and performance, need to feel that Dodge Challenger they came to look at is a quality product. If they don't, they will go down the street to buy a Camaro or a Mustang.
     
    #454 aldo90731, Dec 7, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2017
  15. vipergg

    vipergg Well-Known Member

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    I know I will never buy an autonomous vehicle . I won't even touch a hybrid as long as there are still options in a ICE car or suv..
     
  16. aldo90731

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    I can't even get my internet connection to work all day, or my email account from getting hacked. It is going to take a lot to convince me to give up the steering wheel to some computer-network guided device.
     
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  17. Ernesto

    Ernesto Active Member

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    My Central Texas Fiat-Alfa dealer just received 3 more Giulias bringing inventory to 18. He had been stuck on 15 for weeks. A couple weeks ago 3 more Stelvios showed making 29. Stelvio inventory had been stuck at 26 for a good while. The sales staff changes every time I show for a visit. The woman at the greeting desk remains. The beautiful internet woman is long gone to Jim Turner Chevrolet. This afternoon the same owner sales manager down the street at the Chrysler store gripes because he is losing customers to Cruze, Malibu and Sonata.

    I check Alfa inventory almost daily. I may start viewing Fiat inventory.
     
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  18. aldo90731

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    Maybe Alfas need to be aged like fine wine and cheese :D
     
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  19. TimesTen

    TimesTen Active Member

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    Yeah every time a 500 pulls up next to in my dart (not often of course since nobody buys them) it boils my blood that my car got the ax and that thing gets to continue on.
     
  20. page2171

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    Dude, you need a hobby...or a job. ;) :D
     
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