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VW Dieselgate & AN: Winterkorn out: Door open for Marchionne?

Discussion in 'Mopar / FCA News' started by tryphon, Sep 22, 2015.

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  1. Mike V.

    Mike V. Mopar-nac The Moderator

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    Maybe, maybe not. It all depends on what VW is required to do. I think the water is still too muddy to make the claim.

    Mike
     
  2. Rick Anderson

    Rick Anderson Well-Known Member

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    You seem obsessed with areas that do NOT have emission testings. Once VW completes the recall/applies the fix, the vehicles will be emissions compliant and they will pass emissions tests. Those VW's can be sold anywhere.

    Bare in mind, the affected VW's were already passing emissions testing, because of the cheat VW put in the software. So a vehicle that doesn't have the recall performed/fix applied would continue to pass emissions tests at least the way they've been performed up till now. That is why everyone is convinced there will be a database type of documentation to ensure all the affected VW's have the recall/fix performed.

    If you are going to avoid having the recall done, you may NOT be able to sell them at all until the recall/fix is performed. Best case scenario, if the Fed leaves it to the states and there are one or two states that don't bother to check the documentation for the recall being performed, you might be able to sell them in those states, I highly doubt this will happen. But the value or price will probably be the same, so there is no reason to avoid having the recall performed.

    The one thing you've got right is the fire sale on VW's, simple supply and demand, affected VW's have almost zero demand at the moment and a growing supply, the price will come down. So someone willing to take the risk, if it works out for them, they could potentially reap a big reward. Once this all settles out and the affected VW are fixed, and the controversy dies down, the price will go back up from low it is now and a nice profit might be made.

    The best speculation right now, likely the performance and fuel efficiency will go down, while the Urea consumption will go up on these VW's and that will lower their resale value. BUT, like you said, at the moment there is a fire sale on these VW's, so current used price will go back up, just NOT as high as it was before this fiasco.
    I don't think so, nor have the moderators warned me. I made the point, its an academic argument as to what is the State and Federal power to enforce after the sale and registration of the vehicle in a state. One I do NOT know the answer too, and there are good arguments on either side, and I'm NOT convinced the folks insisting otherwise really know for sure either. Regardless, I said its a moot point for the 2 reasons I pointed out.
    1. Every state is likely to enforce this recall/fix be performed, either on their own initiative or in cooperation with the fed.
    2. The fact the affected VW's were never emissions compliant before they were sold (because they fooled the EPA) that makes them different than all the other cars sold and registered in states, and a lawyer would have to tell us for sure, but it certainly opens the door that it is still in the Fed's jurisdiction. i.e. the violation didn't occur after the sale when it was in the State's sphere, the violation occurred before the sale, when it was in the Fed's sphere.
    Those are NOT overtly political statements, pushing personal political agendas or sloganeering, it is just a discussion of the laws and jurisdictions. I pretty much agree with the majority, but for different reasons. Regardless, the end result will likely be the same most of us are predicting, almost all or all affected VW's will get the recall/fix performed whether its the state or fed enforcing it.

    As far as the affected VW's passing emissions testing, they did because of the cheat VW engineered in the software. That is why VW will be penalized, and likely severely, and they will have to correct all the vehicles on their own dime. That alone is a disincentive to other manufacturer's NOT to try to cheat like they did. My guess, the EPA and states are NOT going to throw out their current enforcement systems. Instead they likely will refine them a bit to be better able to catch cheaters. Like I and others have suggested, adding a simple "validation" road test with nothing plugged into the OBDII port would have caught VW on the spot.

    No matter what you do, cheater will always find a way to cheat or game that system. You need to design a good system, refine it a bit as things change, but the answer to cheating is to punish the cheaters.
     
    #502 Rick Anderson, Oct 2, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2015
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  3. Rick Anderson

    Rick Anderson Well-Known Member

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    Brick and Mortar State Inspection stations are already on their way out, just about every state simply plugs into the OBDII port and checks the emission status. So the inspection stations are shrinking and really only need to be a laptop anymore.

    Keep in mind, the OBDII compliant engine controller doesn't monitor emissions, it monitors and tests everything that could effect emissions. i.e. the vehicle has no idea what the actual emissions out of its tailpipe are, but the slightest thing changes in the vehicle that would change the emissions out the tailpipe, the vehicle would recognize it and set a warning and code. But, it can be used the same way as you're predicting, radio in a check engine light on your dash to the authorities.

    That is why the EPA certification is so important and done so thoroughly, that is the actual measurement of emissions. Once the EPA certifies the design as emission compliant, those emissions level shouldn't change unless there is a malfunction or failure in the vehicle, which the OBDII is very effective at catching. States that do rolling dyno sniff tests, I bet were finding the actual measurements weren't disagreeing with the OBDII results in engine controllers, that is why so many states were getting rid of the sniff tests and just using the OBDII in the vehicle.

    Some of the suggested changes for the future along the lines of what your talking about, is requirements for when a emission effecting malfunction is ignored by the owner, the engine controller has to put the vehicle into a limp mode and eventually disable the vehicle if the owner continues to ignores the malfunctions and continue to operate the vehicle. Suggested for diesels, but you can imagine the same would eventually happen to gasoline vehicles. So the check engine light goes off, you can drive a couple hundred miles before it will go in limp mode, you keep driving in limp mode for a couple hundred miles, then the vehicle will just disable itself and you'll have to have it to towed to be repaired.
     
  4. Rick Anderson

    Rick Anderson Well-Known Member

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    I think this might only reflect the EPA taking a "reasonable" approach, and NOT what they can do under the law.

    That is no surprise, I don't know if the EPA can or can't legally ban people from operating their vehicles if they are non-compliant. They consider it unreasonable and thus are going to do it, I'm sure potential public backlash has some to do with it as well.

    The requirement to repair the recalled vehicles, referring to the states: I do NOT see the EPA statement as settling the academic argument over whether the Fed can enforce laws/standards after the sale of the vehicle and whether its all State Jurisdiction. Instead it may simply reflect Practicality, the Fed simply has no vehicle to enforce laws and standards on vehicles after the sale, while the states do. The only practical way for the EPA to enforce the compliance is to leave it up to the states.

    Don't be surprised if Fed and State Gov agency are going to be talking to each other about this, and how simply it will be for the State to do, we will be seeing almost all or all states to take measure to make sure the recall are performed. The EPA will be pressuring VW to do every vehicles as well. If the NHTSB is going to throw a fit for FCA not being able to get all owners to come in to have their free recall performed, you can see the EPA do the same with VW. And if its a software only fix, you can expect every affected VW that goes to a dealer for what ever reason will have the flash of new software performed and documented.
     
    #504 Rick Anderson, Oct 2, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2015
  5. pt006

    pt006 Active Member

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    I heard last night that the attorney's general of 24 states were issuing supoenas to VW in a lawsuit. Also read that a pension fund was suing VW for 100 million dollars for loss of stock value. This could amount to even more if the lawyers decide they also would want a piece of the pie.

    States/counties without emissions programs could easily block re-registrations by setting their computers to 'flag' the VW's/Audis with the diesels [eighth digit [?] of the VIN. Then demanding a VW dealer certificate stating that: the vehicle has been modified and now meets the required federal emissions standards. -- Like having to present your insurance card before you can register a car.
     
  6. valiant67

    valiant67 ...

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    No, they did not pass emissions testing because there was undisclosed software on the vehicles - that alone voids the testing (plenty of info on that if you care to look around). They are non-compliant because there is an unapproved software modification that was not disclosed to the agencies. The only way the could have passed is of the modification was disclosed during the testing.
     
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  7. Medicin-Man

    Medicin-Man Active Member

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    I happen to wonder whether this was worthy for a company like Volkswagen AG. I mean, they could have had exceptional business with their diesels here in Europe, why going through so much trouble promoting diesels in the US, then? Anyway, the recently appointed people won’t complain, I guess.
     
  8. Mike V.

    Mike V. Mopar-nac The Moderator

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    Ouch! That's yet another piece of the puzzle I had not considered.

    Absolutely, it is really simple and they won't need the 8th digit... VW will be required to supply the entire VIN number of every single car affected to the DOT, NHTSA, and EPA.

    Mike
     
  9. Mike V.

    Mike V. Mopar-nac The Moderator

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    IMHO it was a quick fix to get the specific cars on dealer lots... But then they got in over there heads, almost like a Ponzi scheme.

    Clearly they were working on it, the new vehicles with next generation diesels do not have the "program" to fool the test.

    Mike
     
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  10. Rick Anderson

    Rick Anderson Well-Known Member

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    Yep, lets keep in mind, just because a state or local area does NOT have an emission testing program, it does NOT mean they could care less about emissions. In fact they usually have emissions laws on the books, it's just they can't afford, or its NOT worth it for various reasons, to pro-actively enforce emissions with a testing program. (You can argue many of those non-test areas rely on the EPA and owners properly using OBDII to enforce emissions). Enforcing the recall/fix of the affected VW's can be done a lot cheaper/easier than a pro-active emissions test program, and they would likely do it.

    So again, I think it would be a mistake to assume just because a state or local area does NOT have an emissions test program, they will NOT be taking simply steps to ensure the affected VW's are NOT brought into compliance, like all the other cars registered in the state.

    Having said that, sure when all is said and done, there may be a few VW's that are NOT made compliant, but the overwhelming majority of them will be.
     
  11. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    Can’t afford... hmmmph. It’s a matter of priorities. Our state can’t afford pensions, but we can afford helicopter rides for our governor. Every state has its own shameful story of misplaced spending.
     
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  12. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    Yes.
     
  13. JavelinAMX

    JavelinAMX Well-Known Member

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    You didn't catch the tongue-in-cheek ... I wasn't accusing you, Mr, Anderson. We can relax.

    You started by saying " We need a constitutional law class to figure out if emission standards ... " .

    Anyway, BMW and FCA Diesels will now be more deeply scrutinized, according to a radio report I heard a few moments ago.

    That's a repeat of what was said earlier in the week.

    As for cheating, I agree : "If it's made by man, it will be ruined by man." And the other accurate tongue-in-cheek truism : "No good deed goes unpunished."
     
  14. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    Which is not an issue if neither company cheated.
     
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  15. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    You do realize that would be horrendously expensive, right? And exceedingly unlikely. Besides which, not every car has uplinks.

    All that is likely to happen is better testing regimens and less trust, same as with fuel economy rules.

    Remember when automakers switched to SAE horsepower testing because most were cheating?
     
  16. Mr.Source

    Level III Supporter

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    At one point all of us might be able to sue any company because the information they give us is not always 100% right, if we would like to start finding out where we can sue we might find it.
    We have not an idea of what many issues we could find if we want to, but this time VW went to far, and the worst was that they where told about it almost two years ago and didn't care.
    Now I hope others will learn the lesson.

    RESPECT THE CONSUMER, THEY ARE NUMBER ONE.
     
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  17. HotCarNut

    HotCarNut Defender of Reality
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    You forgot reason #3: EXCLUSIVITY
    Tesla has so-far cornered the market on "status EVs". Interesting to see if traditional manufacturers let them keep it (the answer is no see BMW i3 and i8). Porsche nailed the high-end, but it was a limited-run supercar. Most supercars going forward will be performance hybrids a la Ferrari's LaFerrari.
     
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  18. valiant67

    valiant67 ...

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    True, there is an EV market for exclusivity and technology lovers.
     
  19. Dave Z

    Dave Z It's me, Dave
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    I agree. Mercedes, BMW, and Audi are all going to be aiming at Tesla’s spot. Lexus showed that you can use hybrid powertrains for very high performance, but that’s not why people look at Lexus, so they went nowhere. Ferrari is another story.

    The Lexus hybrids were and are insanely fast and quite efficient for their power. That is really the future of performance because you can get there without low-end lag or very heavy engines, and I suspect the cost balances out — getting huge performance from small engines is very expensive, and using huge engines is partly self-defeating (adding weight) and doesn’t help cornering.

    Of the first three Prius buyers I knew, back when it was new, all were computer geeks and cared only about the tech, one actually took the car apart to see how the IT systems worked.
     
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  20. Rick Anderson

    Rick Anderson Well-Known Member

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    I agree, and with OBDII all the state needs is a laptop to effectively check if a vehicle is outside its emissions standards. Although administering and tracking for all the cars registered in a state still be expensive. No state is pure with spending, there will always be stuff to criticize. But my point is, for what ever reason a state does NOT have a pro-active test emissions does NOT mean they won't do something about the affected VW's.
    No, I didn't take it like that. The Constitutional Law Class comment was because, at the root of what limits or empowers the Fed and State, one over the other, is the constitution. Where I would have gotten overtly political is when I start swearing at or expressing disgust about Fed/State balance of power NOT agreeing with how I think it should be. I was trying to make the point, lets NOT get into tit-for-tat Fed/State balance of power, I don't know how it will turn out in every instance, nor do I think anyone else on the thread is, cause I'm NOT a lawyer in this specialty. Arguing about how you think it should be is just getting overtly political.

    Perhaps other manufacturer's diesels will be scrutinized by the EPA and that would be a shame. At the same time, if the EPA and Gov Oversight is doing their job properly, the additional scrutiny would just to find any cheats they may make, which will be a little additional burden on the others, but if they are NOT cheating it won't be much extra burden at all.

    Of course another axiom about human behavior, people that get egg on their face can overreact in response to everyone. So its possible the EPA reacts in a way, that has all the manufacturers cursing their name and VW for spoiling it, because they have made life really difficult and expensive for everyone now. It only takes a few bad apples to ruin it for everyone.
     
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