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Jeep’s magic number is 79,706

by Bill Cawthon on

Jeep-X-Million-Web
The December sales month and 2014 sales year ended yesterday, January 2, 2015. Even though results won’t be announced until Monday,  this weekend’s action will go toward January.

For the Jeep brand, only 79,706 sales separate it from posting a million sales in a single year for the first time ever. That’s equivalent to total Jeep civilian sales from 1945 to the middle of 1968.

It’s possible that the U.S. and Canada could combine to put Jeep over the top, but that would take a 40% increase in sales from December 2014. That sounds like a lot until one runs the numbers.

It turns out that that Jeep’s average year-over-year (YOY) monthly gain from January to November 2014 was 45.3%: the U.S. average was 44.0% while growth in Canada averaged a whopping 63.9%. This is a huge jump. In 2013, the equivalent numbers were 1.0% for combined U.S.-Canadian sales; 1.0% for the U.S. and 2.1% for Canada.

Multiplying combined sales U.S.-Canadian volumes from December 2013 by that 45.3% average gives a December 2014 sales volume of 82,743 Jeeps for December 2014, more than enough to hit the million.

Growth in November was 28.1%, the smallest monthly increase in 2014. Multiplying December 2013’s volume by that figure yields a December 2014 volume of 68,220, leaving a gap of 11,486 units to be filled by Mexico and the rest of the world. That’s about 43.4% of the combined Mexico and international sales made in November 2014.

Assuming the actual results will fall somewhere between those two figures gives a range as shown by the yellow box in the chart.

Jeep-US-Canada-2012-2014-Web

The question that remains is not so much if Jeep will hit the magic million as who will put it over the top?

Bill Cawthon grew up in the auto industry in the 1950s. His Dad worked for Chrysler and Bill spent a number of Saturdays down on the plant floor at Dodge Main in Hamtramck. Bill is also the U.S. market correspondent for just-auto.com, a British auto industry publication, and a member of the Texas Auto Writers Association, which has named the Jeep Grand Cherokee the “SUV of Texas” several times and named the Ram 1500 as the “Truck of Texas” two years running.

Bill has owned five Plymouths (including the only 1962 “Texan”), one Dodge and one Chrysler and is still trying to figure out how to justify a Wrangler. He also has owned at least one of every 1:87 scale model of a Chrysler product. You can reach him directly at (206) 888-7324 or by using the form.


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