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Will Labor Day end the “Mopar” sales streak?

by Bill Cawthon on

Kelley Blue Book’s KBB.com predicted that Fiat Chrysler’s 64-month streak of year-over-year growth will end with August, and that the calendar is the killer.

Sales-Forecast-Clouds-Web

In 2014, Labor Day was on September 1, so the strong holiday weekend sales were included in August’s results, giving Fiat Chrysler a nearly-20% jump in new light vehicle sales. This year, Labor Day is on the seventh, meaning September gets the bonus. Thus, Kelley’s predicts a 3.2% fall in volume despite a hefty year-to-date increase; the site also predicted that industry sales as a whole would be 4% lower, so FCA would still gain market share. The primary exception they predicted was Ford, which has finally ramped up F-150 production and distribution.

Actual August sales for North America will be reported on Tuesday.

KELLEY BLUE BOOK AUGUST SALES FORECAST
Sales Volume Market Share
Company Aug 15* Aug  14 Change Aug 15* Aug 14 Change
Fiat Chrysler 192,000 198,379 -3.2% 12.6% 12.5% 0.1%
General Motors 258,000 272,423 -5.3% 17.0% 17.2% -0.2%
Ford 222,000 221,373 0.3% 14.6% 14.0% 0.6%
Toyota 221,000 246,100 -10.2% 14.5% 15.5% -1.0%
Honda 154,000 167,038 -7.8% 10.1% 10.6% -0.4%
Nissan 128,000 134,388 -4.8% 8.4% 8.5% -0.1%
Hyundai-Kia 124,000 124,670 -0.5% 8.2% 7.9% 0.3%
VW-Audi 55,000 56,822 -3.2% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0%
Industry 1,520,000 1,582,675 -4.0% N/A N/A N/A
*Forecast

Bill Cawthon grew up in the auto industry in the 1950s. His Dad worked for Chrysler and Bill spent a number of Saturdays down on the plant floor at Dodge Main in Hamtramck. Bill is also the U.S. market correspondent for just-auto.com, a British auto industry publication, and a member of the Texas Auto Writers Association, which has named the Jeep Grand Cherokee the “SUV of Texas” several times and named the Ram 1500 as the “Truck of Texas” two years running.

Bill has owned five Plymouths (including the only 1962 “Texan”), one Dodge and one Chrysler and is still trying to figure out how to justify a Wrangler. He also has owned at least one of every 1:87 scale model of a Chrysler product. You can reach him directly at (206) 888-7324 or by using the form.


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