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Analysts see 66th month of FCA growth

by Bill Cawthon on

Analysts at Edmunds, Kelley Blue Book, and TrueCar.com agreed that Fiat Chrysler (FCA) will beat its prior year’s sales figures for a 66th month for September 2015. The numbers will be released on Thursday morning.

The average of the three forecasts shows FCA sales increasing by 12%, but all three say that FCA will have one of the lowest growth rates of the major automakers. Only General Motors, with an 8.8% gain, will report a smaller margin. (Volkswagen is expected to lose sales due to the mandated stop-sale on diesel-powered cars.)

Sales-Forecast-Clouds-Web

Analysts said FCA’s market share will fall from 13.67% last September to 13.55%, a loss of 0.12 percentage points. Total industry growth was forecast at 12.9%.

The big jump compared to September 2014 is due to Labor Day. Last year, Labor Day sales were counted in August; this year the holiday fell after August sales had closed.

Sales-Growth-Forecast-Sept15-Web

According to TrueCar.com estimates, FCA increased its incentives. This month, they averaged $3,624 per vehicle, up 2.6% from last September and 1% from August 2015. GM is still the big spender, averaging $4,037 per vehicle, over 10% more than September 2014 and about equal to August of this year. Ford spent about $121 less than FCA, averaging $3,503.

Bill Cawthon grew up in the auto industry in the 1950s. His Dad worked for Chrysler and Bill spent a number of Saturdays down on the plant floor at Dodge Main in Hamtramck. Bill is also the U.S. market correspondent for just-auto.com, a British auto industry publication, and a member of the Texas Auto Writers Association, which has named the Jeep Grand Cherokee the “SUV of Texas” several times and named the Ram 1500 as the “Truck of Texas” two years running.

Bill has owned five Plymouths (including the only 1962 “Texan”), one Dodge and one Chrysler and is still trying to figure out how to justify a Wrangler. He also has owned at least one of every 1:87 scale model of a Chrysler product. You can reach him directly at (206) 888-7324 or by using the form.


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