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Can Ram repeat as #2?

by Bill Cawthon on

Last month, the Ram pickup outsold the Chevy Silverado to take the No. 2 spot in the sales rankings.  Could history repeat itself when the October results are released tomorrow?

The margin by which Ram won was small, 2,412 sales, and it took a 29% surge in Ram deliveries and a nearly 16% drop in Silverado turnover to make it happen.

Ram-v-Silverado-Web

If history actually does repeat itself, the answer is yes. Last year, Silverado sales fell from September to October, while purchases of the Ram increased. A repeat would widen the gap, but how likely is a repeat?

The swamis at Edmonds, Kelley Blue Book and TrueCar have made their predictions for October sales and, unfortunately, they call for another down month for FCA.  Forecasts range from KBB’s 8% shortfall to TrueCar’s 11% drop; the average puts FCA in the red by 9%. The question is how much of that decline affects the Ram brand.

General Motors’ turnover is also forecast to drop, but by a smaller margin (7%), which could make all the difference.

ytd-forecast-1016

Industry sales are expected to fall by nearly 7%, dropping behind the first 10 months of 2015, as the market softens; there are also two fewer selling days this year. Still, FCA is predicted to be the only Detroit automaker still ahead of last year. Ford, GM, and Toyota will all be in the red, according to analysts.

Bill Cawthon grew up in the auto industry in the 1950s. His Dad worked for Chrysler and Bill spent a number of Saturdays down on the plant floor at Dodge Main in Hamtramck. Bill is also the U.S. market correspondent for just-auto.com, a British auto industry publication, and a member of the Texas Auto Writers Association, which has named the Jeep Grand Cherokee the “SUV of Texas” several times and named the Ram 1500 as the “Truck of Texas” two years running.

Bill has owned five Plymouths (including the only 1962 “Texan”), one Dodge and one Chrysler and is still trying to figure out how to justify a Wrangler. He also has owned at least one of every 1:87 scale model of a Chrysler product. You can reach him directly at (206) 888-7324 or by using the form.

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