Much ado about not much

Last month, Jeep sales missed their mark for the first time since September 2013 and questions are already flying about possible troubles ahead for America’s top-selling SUV brand.

While the doomsayers all note that one month doesn’t make a trend, they seem to imply that it does. But there are a number of factors that indicate their warnings should be taken with enough salt to induce high blood pressure.

September Jeep sales came in less than 2.7% behind the same month last year, but the shortfall is only a warning if it is taken out of context. September 2015 was a tough month to follow because year-over-year (YOY) sales had rocketed up by 42% — the highest YOY growth month in the entire year, beating even the December spike.

Jeep wasn’t alone in September; crossovers and SUVs gave up market share industry-wide, compared with August. Jeep sales were down 2.7%, but Ford utility sales were off by 3.2%, with double-digit drops in sales of the Escape and Explorer. GMC utility sales tumbled by 13.5%, wiping out a mild gain for Chevrolet and leaving General Motors in the red as well.

Based on trends from similar years, we haven’t yet seen anything to justify concern. Jeep sales may be soft again in October, but should still finish the year ahead of 2015.

In the longer term, Jeep sales may fall, but most likely it will be part of an industry-wide drop as the market enters a long-overdue correction.