[superduckie5000]

(EDITORS NOTE: Similar to our previous "Will Dart get 41MPG combined?" poll/wager, we're doing it again by comparing the first 12 months of US sales of the new KL Cherokee versus the original KJ Liberty.)

S P E L L - R A M P - U P !

Over and Over and Over !

Idea: Let's Start a a Little Betting Pool on the 1st 12 Months Sales after the Official Intro.

TMD

 

[MoparNorm]

S P E L L - R A M P - U P !

Over and Over and Over !

Idea: Let's Start a a Little Betting Pool on the 1st 12 Months Sales after the Official Intro.

TMD

Yes Duckie, I've been talking about this for a while, but everyone gets silent when i bring it up.
$25 to the Allpar Member in Need Fund, for each person, win or lose, it goes to Allpar.
I'm saying the first 12 month sales of KL will be less than the first 12 month sales of KJ. ( I think Strat said that was 85,000?) I'd even be so bold to say less than the last 12 months of KK. which was around 70,000?

 

[marlon_jbt]

Duckie, are we anywhere close to Job 1 or...?

I'd really like you to at least say we are at the S2 stage...

 

[CDJSalesPro]

Yes Duckie, I've been talking about this for a while, but everyone gets silent when i bring it up.
$25 to the Allpar Member in Need Fund, for each person, win or lose, it goes to Allpar.
I'm saying the first 12 month sales of KL will be less than the first 12 month sales of KJ. ( I think Strat said that was 85,000?) I'd even be so bold to say less than the last 12 months of KK. which was around 70,000?

Ill take some of that action..."over 85k" for first 12 months". The only thing that is going to stop the KL is poor marketing or some serious unforseen production glitch. If I can get an inventory of 20+ on my lot within the first 2 months. The kids will be having a great Christmas this year.

 

[Erik Latranyi]

Ill take some of that action..."over 85k" for first 12 months". The only thing that is going to stop the KL is poor marketing or some serious unforseen production glitch. If I can get an inventory of 20+ on my lot within the first 2 months. The kids will be having a great Christmas this year.

Are we talking first 12 months of sales (debuts in August 2013 until July 2014) or first full calendar year (Jan 2014 - Dec 2014)?

 

[Stratuscaster]

Let's call it "the first 12 months of US sales, starting with it's first appearance on the official CGLLC US Monthly Sales Report."

That would place the KJ Liberty at 135802 units, from May 01 to Apr 02.

 

[MoparNorm]

Let's call it "the first 12 months of US sales, starting with it's first appearance on the official CGLLC US Monthly Sales Report."That would place the KJ Liberty at 135802 units, from May 01 to Apr 02.

I'm good with that, but using 135,802 would be like taking candy from a baby.
Does anyone seriously think it will move 11,300 per month?
That would vault it to number 4 in the company, overnight.
Lets pick a fairer number (for proponents) Im good with less than 85,000. I'd be ecstatic if it sold 100,000, shocked if if sold 136,000.

 

[CDJSalesPro]

I'm good with that, but using 135,802 would be like taking candy from a baby.
Does anyone seriously think it will move 11,300 per month?
That would vault it to number 4 in the company, overnight.
Lets pick a fairer number (for proponents) Im good with less than 85,000. I'd be ecstatic if it sold 100,000, shocked if if sold 136,000.

I'm with may man Norm on this one(good lord we agree...lol) 85+k will be good considering we dont know what kind of production glitches may come up. I persoanlly think 100k will be a breeze but 135k is def pushing it for first year sales..... I anticepate a slow start.... but a stronger finish.....I doubt Jeep will give me a good lease program untill Oct- Nov. Once that happens its game on!!!! 10k per month
there are (estimate) 2000+ Jeep Dealerships.........thats only 4.5 per month...per dealer

 

[MoparNorm]

I agree, it will start slow, like every other recent release and it will likely take 4-6 months to hit its stride. It should be full stride from 6-9 months and stay that way or get rebates the last 3, depending upon the numbers.
They have too much riding on this to stumble out the gate.

 

[Stratuscaster]

And because of that, I think using anything less than a full 12 months of numbers wouldn't be realistic either.

 

[Erik Latranyi]

OK, first twelve months it is!

Now, do we do a simple over/under or levels?

Over/Under 85,000
Over/Under 100,000
Over/Under 125,000

Remember, Toledo has already announced three shifts, if I remember correctly.

 

[Stratuscaster]

For the sake of simplicity - straight numbers. How many Toledo North produces is one thing - we're only looking at US sales.

 

[Erik Latranyi]

So, the wager is will the KL sell over or under 135,000 in its first 12 months. The first month and sales numbers are determined by Chrysler's official monthly sales figures.

Are we all clear?

 

[JTE]

How many vehicles will TEP allow Toledo to build?

I see they're working over Easter weekend (almost got t-boned at shift change).

 

[CDJSalesPro]

So, the wager is will the KL sell over or under 135,000 in its first 12 months. The first month and sales numbers are determined by Chrysler's official monthly sales figures.

Are we all clear?

not clear at all I thought the number was over 85k in the first 12 months........

 

[Erik Latranyi]

not clear at all I thought the number was over 85k in the first 12 months........

KJ sold 135,802 in its first 12 months. So, if we are comparing KL to KJ, then the threshold is 135,802.

 

[JTE]

Please refresh my memory, at the KJ launch, were they also launching a new engine and transmission?

 

[MoparNorm]

Please refresh my memory, at the KJ launch, were they also launching a new engine and transmission?

3.7, 42RE and NV3500, along with NP242, so likely not everything new, but still several new items and an all new body, interior, front (IFS) suspension and tooling.
It was the first Jeep to use the 3.7 and the power tech 4 and it was the first Jeep wirh rack and pinion steering.
So, it's a fair comparison and a measure of the new owners competency.

 

[Erik Latranyi]

Please refresh my memory, at the KJ launch, were they also launching a new engine and transmission?

I see your point, but could counter this way:

The 3.2 is a derivative of the 3.6, just as the 3.7 was a derivative of the 4.7.

The nine-speed transmission is a ZF design, just as the four-speed automatic was adopted for RWD from the FWD version.

The AWD system.......well, that is quite unique on the KL, versus the proven Command Trac and Selec Trac systems on KJ.

So, yes, KJ was launched with a new engine and transmission!

 

[jazz77]

I'm confident with over 85k, possible 100k, unlikely over 135k.